vortex95

Actually, May 1995 did not have a low tornado count. Quite the opposite with 391 tornadoes, the 7th highest monthly total on record. Be careful with taking statistics at face value on social media.

K35A - Union SC KMZJ - Marana AZ KSPK - Spanish Fork UT KVVS - Connellsville PA

NOUS41 KWBC 161520 PNSWSH Service Change Notice 21-30 National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring MD 320 PM EDT Tue March 16, 2021 TO: Subscribers: -NOAA Weather Wire Service -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network -NOAAPort Other NWS Partners and Employees FROM: Captain James Crocker, NOAA Director, Surface and Upper Air Division Office of Observations SUBJECT: NWS Upper Air Station at Chatham, MA, to permanently close effective April 1, 2021 The NWS will cease all radiosonde observations (RAOB) and data transmissions from the Chatham, MA, upper air site, after the final sounding 12Z March 31, 2021. The WMO Site number is 74494 and the Site ID is KCHH. These two AWIPS products will cease effective April 1, 2021. These products are for the RAOB Mandatory (MAN) and Significant (SGL) levels observations. WMO HEADING AWIPS PIL USUS41 KBOX MANCHH UMUS41 KBOX SGLCHH Users should refer to upper air observations from the three nearest NWS upper air sites: Brookhaven, NY, (72501); Albany, NY, (72518); and Gray, ME, (74389). Following decommissioning of the Chatham upper air station, when weather conditions or circumstances warrant, these stations will make supplemental observations. Recent significant erosion of the coastal bluff where the Chatham upper air station is located is a safety concern for the personnel who launch radiosonde soundings. The balloon inflation building is at risk of loss from a landslide. For this reason, the NWS will decommission the site on March 31, 2021, and have the facility buildings demolished in April 2021. The NWS is actively seeking a new site for upper air observations in southeastern New England and will notify the user community when property acquisition is made. If you have questions or feedback, please contact: Hiram Escabi, Jr., NCE, CET Upper Air Program Manager NWS Program Management Branch Silver Spring, MD 301-427-9195 [email protected] NWS Service Change Notices are online at: https://www.weather.gov/notification/

K4V1 - Walsenburg CO KE42 - Spearman TX KT89 - Lajitas TX KU52 - Beaver UT

I posted this several ago ago. Here is the update for 2017-2020, and also the complete file starting in the 19th century. I only listed killer or significant tornadoes prior to 1975, and all tornadoes 1975-2020. newenglandtor201720.txt newenglandtor.txt

K81R - San Saba TX KGNG - Gooding ID KNJW - Preston/Williams NOLF MS

K63S - Colville WA KADT - Atwood KS KDWA - Davis/Yolo County CA KK62 - Falmouth KY KOAR - Marina CA KU69 - Duchesne UT PAKX - Port Alsworth AK

Goni as strong as Haiyan? Going strictly by satellite here. I did a comparison of EIR and BD geostationary imagery (4 km resolution) at Goni's and Haiyan's peak intensity of 170 kt. Goni EIR 10/31/20 18z 170 kt https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp22/4kmirimg/2020wp22_4kmirimg_202010311800.gif Haiyan EIR 11/7/13 1830z 170 kt https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013wp31/4kmirimg/2013wp31_4kmirimg_201311071830.gif Goni BD 10/31/20 18z 170 kt https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp22/4kmsrbdc/2020wp22_4kmsrbdc_202010311800.jpg Haiyan BD 11/7/13 1830z 170 kt https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013wp31/4kmsrbdc/2013wp31_4kmsrbdc_201311071830.jpg Haiyan looks more symmetrical with a thicker/colder CDO ring and warmer/clearer eye. ----- Comparison of Polar EIR imagery (1 km resolution) Goni EIR 10/31/20 1225z https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp22/1kmirimg/2020wp22_1kmirimg_202010311225.gif Haiyan EIR 11/7/13 1640z https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013wp31/1kmirimg/2013wp31_1kmirimg_201311071640.gif Polar imagery is not at the same time but still Haiyan looks so much more impressive overall for its cold COD ring and a warmer/clearer eye overall. Geostationary imagery for Goni at 18z does not suggest its satellite presentation improved to this level from 1225z.

USAF did do recons in the WPAC (mostly out of Guam) until 1987. That's when I think full reliable geostationary coverage (GMS satellite) was available. It is virtually without a doubt there have been several STYs in the WPAC stronger than STY Tip. Haiyan (2013) and Zeb (1998) are likely candidates. A few more are discussed here: https://ams.confex.com/ams/26HURR/techprogram/paper_75465.htm https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/75465.pdf Many TCs globally, weak and strong, are underestimated when no recon is present. Dvorak does best with systems 60-105 kt. This mean two things 1) a lot of TDs are actually weak TSs, and 2) the most intense TCs are often underestimated, sometimes by significant values. The smaller, more intense a TC is, the greater the error. Dvorak does not do well for small/tiny intense TCs. No way we would ever have got 215 mph for Patricia based on satellite, even if it was an average size TC. Usually TC centers will max 1-min winds at 185 mph for satellite-only estimates, such as EPAC Linda 1997 (likely strong than 185 mph). JTWC until Haiyan never went about 185 mph satellite-based only. Even Haiyan's 195 mph is only an estimate. In the hurricane re-analysis project for the Atlantic, adjustments to the most intense TCs are capped at 185 mph. Just no way to tell what really goes on in these mesoscale cores of intense TCs without recon, even with direct pressure readings as we now know how variable the winds can be for a given eye pressure. I will say with the FL Keys Labor Day hurricane in 1935, an 892 mb pressure and RMW smaller than Andrew's, and 30 mb lower than Andrew, that meant the winds were probably ~200 mph.

METAR: KORK - North Little Rock AR KRVJ - Reidsville GA KT69 - Sinton TX PHHN - Hana HI PHMU - Kamuela HI RAOB: 72413 - Sterling Field VA 38.97/-77.48 89m

I've talked about some of the below before, and others have posted some of the content below, but I'd thought I'd update and add a few items to take a look at things as a whole. Comments/input welcome! ---------- Macro was never that impressive on satellite. Only reached minimal hur strength, and now it's getting torn apart by shear. LLCC fully exposed now, and it might not even make landfall. Either way, overall impact here should be minimal, so not the doomsday 1-2 punch as hyped for the Gulf Coast. Laura has been struggling all along. Yes, it held together well over Hispaniola, but that b/c it didn't have much to lose. A large weak system encountering an island with tall mountains is not the same as an intense system with a tight inner core doing the same (Isaias same situation as Laura). Also, the upper-level outflow yesterday for Laura was quite good. However, today northerly shear has degraded the sat appearance, and it is a mess. Yes, it should eventually get it act together in the GOMEX, but Macro and Laura continue the trend of ATLC systems that have struggled almost continuously throughout a large part of their existence, and Macro ends up being another "junk" storm overall, not getting that intense, struggled with shear and dry air a significant part of its existence, and doesn't contribute to seasonal ACE much. Does anyone find this odd? Where are the long-track classic intense Cabo Verdes? No hurricanes in the MDR yet. Here is a GOES-16 EIR loop on August 18th showing a robust wave over western Africa. I realize the parallax makes the cloud tops look colder than that actually are, but nevertheless, it was a decent wave. https://drive.google.com/file/d/18gCoMbIRVuiJbOe1kEVfRcLEsof6CYVT/view?usp=sharing And this is what it looked like on August 22nd. All the convection is gone. Seems like the SAL did a number on it. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CInDEDq51Amti0bQh6RbrUvDfSYFRp1C/view?usp=sharing So would you expect such a dramatic suppression of a strong tropical wave now that the peak season has started for the ATLC? It just seems a bit too dramatic when the MDR overall parameters are good. Even in the absence of favorable MJO phase, it doesn't necessarily mean the MDR activity is across the board suppressed, or at least not *this* suppressed. Attached is an ATLC GOES-16 split window image 24/12z. The SAL is alive and well in much of the subtropics and tropics. Also attached is an ATLC WV image from 24/12z. Very dry air at mid-levels cutting S right through the western MDR, and the upper low NE of the Lesser Antilles is forecast to move WSW and be in the central Caribbean in a few days. That's going to shut down any activity in this area. Another image attached is the 24/06z GFS 84 hr 250 mb fcst showing another upper low NE of the Lesser Antilles with its shear axis extending to Trinidad. This may limit significant TC development in the MDR this coming week. This would bring us to the end of August. There are ATLC seasons where many TCs significantly develop well E of the Lesser Antilles, and seasons where you get more "home grown" TCs in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. We seem to have an odd hybrid season thus far, w/ many short-lived tropical storms and a number not forming in the tropics or subtropics, TCs in the MDR struggling, and all our hurricanes either in the GOMEX or off the SEUS coast. You would think by now we'd have at least one or two long-tracked strong Cabo Verde hurricanes. Many Augusts have had them. So I ask this question, can there be "too much of a good thing", for the lack of a better phrase, present? As I mentioned before, we had early season indications that were at record or near record levels. Can this result in other factors being introduced when we are in record territory? For instance, the SAL. It seems to be sticking around and a factor still, what if it ends up not waning like it typically does this time of the year and continues into Sep? That would continue to have significant impacts on TCs in the MDR, regardless of the MJO phase. Or a persistence of TUTTs near and in the MDR, like we are going to see the next 4-5 days? I realize there may be no real answers to my questions here, but looking at recent weeks and the here and now, you can't help wonder something might be awry (i.e. something happening we have yet to observe large-scale in an ATLC TC season). The atmosphere is full of surprises!

NHC noted in the 18z update that conditions in 3-5 day period will not be favorable and have lowered the development chances to 30%. A large part of the tropical Atlantic is devoid of deep convection, as the SAL/dry air dominates. Look at how far S the ITCZ is displaced. As I mentioned in another thread, something does not seem right here. Everything is supposed to favorable for Cabo Verde TCs, but we are still dealing with significant large-scale issues and we are in climo peak period now. Should this be happening in a hyperactive season? Time will tell.

It's not always the best practice to rate an AEW for TC potential later while it's still overland because its convection is mostly diabatically driven. This is what we see with the wave on the west African coast now. Also, looking at the WV and 250 mb analysis, there is TUTT not far to the W. So we can see why the global models don't do much with this wave. One other thing, due to parallax of GOES-16, deep convection in this part of its view will look more intense than it really is.

Indeed! And it shows things are kind of messed up in the ern tropical Atlantic. Where is the deep easterly uniform flow that is almost always present this time of year that brings all African waves steadily westward? If this anomalous flow sticks around for awhile, it is going to put a dampener on some sig Cape Verde TC potential.

Exactly. Couldn't have said it any better. Everything has to be practically perfect for a TC of at least min hurricane intensity to make landfall on LI or the New England coast. One thing is off (i.e. not moving fast enough, trof to W not sharp enough, first landfall down the coast, etc) it greatly reduces the overall threat and impact, at least from a wind and surge point. Rainfall can still be high impact, but you don't need a hurricane for that anywhere. It also helps if the hurricane is intense off the SEUS coast to begin with. It's been 29 years since the last hurricane made landfall on LI or the New England coast, by far the longest period on record going back to 1851. This shows how hard it can be during certain cycles/patterns. Of course, between 1938 and 1960, we got 5 hurricanes, all stronger at landfall than any of the 4 hurricanes the area has had since 1960. Feast or famine it seems!

Still skeptical on the more W track. The trough that evolves over the ern U.S. is not digging and is positively tilted. That's not how you typically bring a TC to SNE. Basically it is just riding a channel in the mean flow, not drawn in by backing flow. One thing I have noticed empirically over time, is that these things tend to recurve out sharper than any model forecast in a synoptic set up like this. You have to find a good reason why it will *not* recurve out sharper than forecast. Here's the pattern that brought Bob up. It was focused, digging s/w trof that gave SNE decent +RA/+TSRA only 24 hr after Bob departed. And the next image is the 00z GFS for 96 hr. It's not the same. In Bob's case, you had a dumbbelling effect.

CoastalWx won't be happy until hell freezes over!