Ed, snow and hurricane fan

There is someone on the tropics threads who posts 16 day op GFS to prove the Atlantic is dead. @GaWxknows his or her name.

Is there any real way of knowing where in the Northern Hemisphere the cold following a SSW happens?

It appears WPC isn't really buying it, but 0Z and 6Z Euro have a 2 to 4 inch rain bullseye general vicinity of Houston Christmas Eve. GFS has the heaviest rain toward NC Texas.

On the one hand, the Earth has been warming for several hundred years. OTOH, all time temperature records in polar regions of North America and Asia is a little concerning. Record Atlantic ocean temps as well last Summer. It looks like there is anthropogenic influence superimposed on the normal climate change. I'm no liberal, I haven't voted Dem since 1992, and have been solid R except for 2016, I voted 3rd party. But not Dem.

I know the general nature of ensemble modeling, petroleum reservoir engineering involves mass balances and radial diffusivity and multiple phase fluid flow in heterogeneous and anisotropic materials. Seismic modeling gives general depths and shapes of underground reservoirs, the rest is data gathered from individual oil wells, and even as just an undergrad, models in the 80s ran what was called 'Monte Carlo' variation of data, because engineers have so little data they actually know, they must run the models with varying inputs, assign probabilities to changes from the best guess, and finding a mean and range of likely outcomes. The solution of the radial diffusivity equation is so complex simplifying assumptions are made and transforms are used. I still loathe my 'systems of linear differential equations' class at UT. I remember being tormented trying to convert things in LaPlace space back. Back in the day, oil companies had the most expensive super-computers. What I meant by empirical, a French sewage engineer named D'Arcy did experiments and came up with an equation for fluid flow as a function of differential pressure, size, length of porous media and viscosity of the fluid from that data. Darcy's Law, the key to aquifer and petroleum engineering, was not based purely on physics. I assume in weather many things are based purely on physics, I wondered if somethings were best fit data derived from experiments and observation. I think the below answers that (empirical formulas are used), or changes in the base state, warmer oceans seems like the most significant, will affect model performance.

How much empirically derived equations go into those forecasts as compared to strictly dynamics/physics. If something in the base state has changed, maybe warmer oceans globally, empirical based predictions that worked before won't work as well now.

If nothing is happening short term besides a wind/rain/far interior elevation snow in the near term, all there is to discuss, besides that, is medium range and beyond forecasts. Pimping ensemble products? What does that even mean. I don't know too many people who don't use ensembles for 500 mb pattern or things like the NAO, ENSO, strat warms and the such. I like mets discussing those things because I am weak on my correlations and thus like seeing discussions on them.

On the one hand, I wonder what the NMME verification is at 8 months lead time, probably not particularly high. OTOH, El Nino should go neutral early in the season, and I see forecasts for the Atlantic to be cooler next season. 2024 thread will be interesting.

GFS and Euro have rain, but it doesn't look that good for severe, but we are days away.

Per Twitter, 1938 was last time a team gave up 10 or less losing 3 straight games.

I was reading the NE and NYC forums the Friday before Boxing Day 2010 (born in Queens, family near Boston, time spent both places) and the gloom and doom was so bad. At the time, there were a lot of Sabbath observant people in Brooklyn (I think many have since made aliyah) who logged off with crushing disappointment and logged back on Saturday evening to blizzard warnings. It was such a happy thing to see. People verbally dancing in joy.

Even in the cold 76-77 Winter the first real snow was Christmas night. Snow on the ground Christmas morning in the NYC metro (and I suspect most of I-95) wasn't that common. It will only get worse as it seems like the offshore Atlantic waters are getting warmer.

Models never really suggested enough instability for enhanced, but in fairness to SPC, they stated it was very conditional, and I think you'd rather have an enhanced that busts than a marginal with several EF2 or greater tornadoes.

Enhanced risk N part of HGX CWA, my house on the edge of Enhanced, Houston and S is Slight. Looking at 3k NAM and FV3, I don't think the 10% tornado probability area will verify. Shear and vorticity are there, instability is not that exciting. Maybe some cold season brief EF-0 and EF-1s. I guess we'll see if the Enhanced is still there at the mid day update.

How does this El Nino end as forecast to in Summer 2024? Looking at the forcing posts earlier, the change in the Walker Circulation would cause weak Easterlies or WWBs forever. But obviously it doesn't, because El Nino's do end. What is the key signal I should be looking for next Spring/Summer to know Nino is ending?

Larry Cosgrove, retired met, seems to think Modoki:

I was home from college in Bedford, TX, about 5 mile W of S end of DFW airport. IIRC, there was a little thunder. I remember another sleet storm in DFW when I was in college which had fairly frequent lightning. Probably during one of my ~1 month long Christmas breaks,

Living in Texas the last 40 years, Houston area the last 23, the idea of a Texas perma-drought being a whoops is not correct. It has definitely been dryer since 2011, even with events like the 2017 floods.

It is starting. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KPOE/standard

Suggestion in SWODY 1 of a possible Moderate later today.

NHC was up to a cherry, it is now back to an orange.

Latest 12Z GFS phase forecast via FSU web site is cold core. Highs here forecast in the low 60s Monday, I had thought of it earlier looking at the models as the Texas version of a Nor'Easter, just at least a month too early for snow. I imagine the 1895 storm resembled it. NHC lemon seems mostly driven by the GFS and family, but it has a few Euro ensemble members that develop a TC strength system. https://www.khou.com/article/news/by-the-numbers-houstons-history-of-snow/285-d9b65f7a-f789-42f0-9ca8-50ff6ce16455#:~:text=But as hard as it,in the history of Houston.

0Z Friday PWAT on 12Z GFS AOA 2 inches along the coast ahead of the front. Even DFW approaches. (TT regional views don't have PWAT, tropical views do, looking at WATL) 5 inch Thursday into Friday bulleye near Victoria. Nice rain forecast along the Texas coast, near or below an inch up in DFW. Drought is sneaking back.

Cold front is a day early per Thursday/Friday forecasts and about 6 hours early per last nights forecast. Only a couple of hours away from Houston and it was forecast last night for the evening. Noon CDT/11MDT map.

Related phenomena, late October I notice the sun setting just after 6 pm (we are W of the center of CDT) and then suddenly in November I am driving home in the dark. Must be related to the retreat of the subtropical ridge into Mexico. Speaking of La Nina type cold, near 90F today, but cold front w/ clouds and rain tonight that last until Wednesday, then a night below 40F in Houston and freezing N suburbs, if that was January I think we'd be having another winter 2020-21 and 22-23 pipe bursting lower 20s or even teens night. They don't bury pipes deep or insulate them well, but usually every 15 or 20 years, a pipe bursting palm tree stressing/killing freeze, although HOU has had 3 of them since 2009-2010 winter. Edit to Add Noon CDT (MDT in W Texas temp map. Mountains protecting El Paso from the front) It is hard, but you can see the front if you look closely..