Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Shear even worse on 0Z GFS. Might be good for a low level swirl with thunderstorms inland well to the NE of the surface low next weekend if GFS is right.

35 knots of Westerly shear right over the center of the low strongly suggests 92L will not ever get a name, let alone becomes a hurricane. Why does the Navy waste taxpayer money on that model?

Bastardi is better than people give him credit for, he even called for a below normal impact year a couple of seasons ago, but he does seem to have a bit of a built in bias for seeing East Coast threats. Almost a decade since Sandy, Northeast is 'due' for another significant storm, although, having taught probability to middle school math students, 'due' isn't scientific. (After 10 coin flips in a row landing on heads, the next one is still 50/50 unless something is wrong with the coin)

GFS does close a low, but the organization is poor enough it may never be classified. PTC possible, out of an abundance of caution. GFS 250 mb winds are not as hostile as yesterday's 12Z run (and from a different direction at 5 days), and the GFS comes closer to a TC, but the forecast shear still suggests it is very iffy.

GFS shows 30 to as high as 50 knot SW 250 mb flow, as a consequence, the heaviest rain is always NW of where a center tries to form, and it never organizes enough to be a TC. Only a few GEFS ensembles close a 1004 mb low. Probably not going to happen. GFS ensemble mean says heaviest rain NE Gulf.

LCH is about as far inland as HOU is from the Gulf, TPA and MIA are on the Gulf or Atlantic. Parts of LCH would have flooded worst case, worst case parts of SE Houston (SE of the SE portion of the I-610 loop highway, and some places South of I-10. Places near the Ship Channel. The cost of relocating chemical plants and refineries would be steep. Although a Houston suburb did disappear after Hurricane Alicia. Ground water pumping lowered the ground level on a place bordering the bay at the outlet of the San Jacinto, the last place that needs to lower ground level. https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Brownwood-The-suburb-that-sank-by-the-Ship-4379765.php

Euro ensembles have a few perturbations in Texas, but if I ran a book, I'd offer about -500 on the Northern, not the Northwestern, Gulf coast. (I don't run a book) Edit to Add, the +400 or so on Texas would be an interesting high risk/high reward bet.

I have worked as a 'service hand' a few miles from Cameron, the land was purposed for cattle ranching (and the occasional gas or condensate well), I saw the skeleton of a calf that got too close to the bayou. I have also flown offshore out of Cameron, which appears to exist mainly to service the offshore oil and gas industry. Per Wiki, the town has a population of 406. Cameron, the largest parish in Louisiana, has less than 8,000 people.

Looking at the unnamed hurricanes going back to the 19th Century on the LCH web page, SW Louisiana is probably barren because the 'chenieres', inland sand bars, offer only small protection against surge. This also looks like a fresh water flooding event, and models, while it is a way out, seem well clustered on the Northern Gulf. Mississippi, especially, doesn't need this. Texas had a recent wet period that has gotten most of the coastal regions out of drought, but Louisiana and Mississippi have had a wet year.

500 and 700 mb GFS heights mean this will not be a Texas issue, but again, a week away and I have not seen ensembles or the op Euro. But the trend is obvious in 0Z ensembles and 6Z models and ensembles. Murphy's Law, current floods in Mississippi. Not claiming that is science.

Fantasy range GFS but a TS that landfalls midway CRP and GLS, and crawls the next 2 days w/ excessive rain. GFS has been off and on showing it, but putting it off, but the now developing a week from now. Somewhere North Mexico to Florida Panhandle could be looking at double digit inches of rain weekend after next.

Euro goes from nothing to something very quickly, with 12 mb deepening in final 6 hours (hr 222 to hr 228) as it approaches landfall. 993 mb and winds almost 50 knots.

New 12Z is a step back, ~40 knot 1001 mb TS, but a step forward from the 0Z Euro. I dropped WxBell, they tripled my rates. AccuWx cheap but models are 'meh'

I think Ryan Maue used to post here. I think. https://weather.substack.com/p/watching-gulf-of-mexico-disturbance?r=21wlp&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter

Early season IMBYism, but some support from op Euro and some GFS ensembles. Day 10 ECENS from Weathernerds. Tracking back, looks like something tries to form on the monsoon trough one side of Central America or the other...

Day 10 via Weathernerds

Warning expired. At the house, I don't think we quite, eyeball wind estimates, qualified for 50 knots. No hail. Plenty of lightning. Almost, not quite, severe. ~40k Centerpoint customers in the dark per TV

Tornado warning for the house, but it doesn't look that impressive. ~60 knots on 0.5 degree but looks straight line.

OT- is there a large fire somewhere near Austin? Seeing something that looks like a stationary point source. Thought it was a new T-storm at first///

Anyone else hate new NWS public radar format?

Sun breaking out in Houston, and a couple of convergence zones seem apparent. Down here, CAP forecast to produce 'squegee line' of showers/storms with actual front, UTS/CLL edge of Marginal.

Wednesday East Texas and Thursday Louisiana and Mississippi look interesting.

0°C (32 F°) at IAH Houston, I'm halfway between IAH and DWH, it is misting/drizzle, but my car is just wet, not icy. Not yet, anyway. Still some areas of packed sleet on street that weren't in direct sunlight.

San Antonio Light Freezing Rain Fog/Mist 24°F -4°C

Witness that almost all the 'snow' in Houston after the sleet was actually frozen drizzle, which floats down like snow. I watched. Almost two days no power, but solid sleet pack kept my beer plenty cold. Benefit of sleet over snow, pavement patches appeared late afternoon, but most suburban streets still white with what I, a former Massapequa resident, could imagine was packed snow. 1989, I did see snow on suburban streets in Dallas survive several days, I have never seen any frozen precip in Houston not gone inside 6 hours. .05 to .10 inches freezing drizzle (3k and 12k NAM) before about 10 am tomorrow in Houston, Dallas snow ratios with marginal temps in dendritic growth zone look horrible, 5:1, maybe, but two Winter Storm Warnings just over 2 days apart in Texas 2 biggest cities?