Rmine1

I think we verify on the lower end of the forecast rain totals.

100% agree. Even if the strongest winds verify on the SS, the worst impacts(outside the beaches) might be in your nape of the neck

Maybe a trade off between less rain and stronger winds?

Snow storm? Apologies for my ignorance, but what’s that?

TBH, radar isn’t all that impressive. I’M JOKING

I fear opening up the basement door tomorrow morning. Brightwaters is infamous for basement flooding

Personally I think the final rain totals will outshine the winds

“Roaring” seems a bit aggressive, at least for me on the south shore where I’d expect the strongest winds to verify. Right now it’s relatively calm with some gusts and light rain

Are you both living in alternate universe? Nothing about the current state of the country supports the argument that politicians listen to anything their constituents say. It’s true for both parties. They’re bought and owned by the lobbyists/donors, and dare not push back against the deep state. I’d love to see a recent enacted law that was debated legally and ultimately passed into law. On a federal level

Your lips to God’s ears. Civility is in the rear view mirror unfortunately. While I don’t always like your input, because I love the winter, l do appreciate your approach. Hats off. For me, due to illness, the days of my invaluable input are limited. I’m sure you’ll manage without me! LOL Enjoy every day as if it were your last, because one day life will get in the way, and you’ll think back to all the time that you spent worrying about things you have ZERO control over. GUILTY! Hey Mother Nature, tweak the PAC jet please

Eventually there will no longer be a need for this forum since winter will soon never return to the NYC metro. Acceptance is glorious, try it out. Enjoy the warmth, see you in the spring. Oh wait, we’re already there.

Looks like a sound effect band right now over W Suffolk. Light snow temp 35 in brightwaters

London will outperform NYC this winter in terms of snow

In other news, it’s raining. Earlier than forecast. Now back to the regularly scheduled program, “biased bickering”.

I made a career based on the notion that “you're only as good as your last trade”. Mother Nature clearly shat the bed last winter, so the premiums for call options on winter ‘24 are super cheap. Do all the prognosticating you want, I’m long “rip ups” because the probability for another shut out for the metro is very low. I rarely advise buying premium, but even if this year is another stinker, the risk of being wrong is too cheap to ignore. We don’t need a blockbuster to be on the right side of the trade this year.

“Few trolls are ruining this thread.” Look kids, Big Ben, Parliament.

Those were the days when the GSB would basically be frozen for most of the winter. Regularly would see clammers drive their cars out, cut a hole in the ice, and dig for clams. My neighbor, who had a love affair with the bottle, would literally walk from the end of Oak Neck Lane in West Islip, to the Kismet Inn. Ah the good old days

Another decent squall. Heavier rates than the previous one.

Windy as hell with moderate snow in brightwaters kudos @wdrag for sniffing this one out.

Flurries in Brightwaters

Looks like a swing and a miss in terms of precip for LI

Got it. Wind component too though

Surprised that there isn’t more chatter about tonight into tomorrow if you follow the latest Upton disco Deep low pres is looking increasingly likely for Sat, with the models coming into agreement with the 12Z cycle. The 12Z NAM has a 981 low over Cape Cod at 21Z Sat, the GFS a 980 low over Montauk at 18Z, and the ECMWF a 983 low near Nantucket at 18Z. These solns indicate rapid deepening invof the cwa on Sat, with locally hvy rainfall thru at least the mrng, and increasing winds thru the day. Although the exact track and intensity is uncertain based on the model spread, peak wind gusts around 40 mph seem likely, particularly LI, and 1-2 inches of rain where the main band sets up nw of the low. The possibility exists for stronger winds gusting in excess of 50 mph if the model trends hold. Winds were increased above model guidance in the grids. Peak winds over land may be limited in the eve, especially inland, by the cooling bl. LI should remain gusty due to the warm waters.

I think I’ve already exceeded forecast totals. Very heavy rain, and a little thunder to boot

Mod/heavy rain in Brightwaters. 63