Brian D

Earlier in this thread, I noted the possible areas of above or below avg temps this Fall. This was my thinking of what it could be. One month in, and I'm probably a bit off already, but with 2 months to go with met fall, we'll see. I do pretty well with long range, but I fail at it sometimes too. That's the way it is.

This one too.

This reminds me of the mid 90's when we had snow in the air really early in the Fall season. Oct will be interesting as I thought. From snow to thunder and back again throughout the month? A mixed bag indeed.

A friend of mine took me on a ride up the North Shore of Lake Superior yesterday. Definitely near peak conditions north of Two Harbors. We went up Hwy #61 then up Hwy #1 then down Hwy #2. Didn't see any moose, but a nice ride. Temps were running mid 60's near shore to low 80's inland. It was a very beautiful day. Bye-bye Indian summer.

I graphed this. May have warmed much for Sept, but looks we're getting back to what seems close to normal these past few years, at least for the upper midwest. https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.pl

Day 2 of Indian summer (warm, dry spell after killing frosts), feels great with temps in the low-mid 70's here. Back to reality in earnest next week though.

So far on track with Sept. Rather mild conditions set to show up this week at least for the western lakes. Should end up close to seasonal temps by the end of the month for the second half, hence " more normal conditions" along with some needed rain. I'm really interested in Oct though. Could be a rather fun weather month, we'll see.

Well, decided to put up my forecast for Halloween for those that involve themselves with trick n treats. Being 6 weeks out, lets see how close I get this. Looks like the upper midwest will be on the colder side with W to N winds (flurries/sn shwers?), and a storm front/low pressure in the lakes region. Map of what it may look like.

Low of 28 this morning here with mid 50's at the moment. Might hit 60 today. Duluth is no longer issuing frost/freeze warnings because growing season is over up this way. Actually it's been over for a few days.

That's a real hard freeze for this time of year for sure. Mid 30's here this a.m.. Mid to upper 50's this aftrn. Trees turning in town quicker than normal, so inland should be firing up good this week. By the lake, we're about 10-14 days later in color(warmer) and 10-14 days later in spring budding(colder) because of the water temps. Should be a nice drive up Hwy #2. I like to hit the Beaver river Rd off Hwy 15. It takes you up into Finland. That road has a stop for a walking trail that goes up on a ridge. During sunset on a clear day, the maples on the ridge across the valley look like their on fire. Awesome view. Been years tho since I've been up that way. Beaver river rd hits the Hefflefinger, and you go right for finland or left takes you north a ways until you hit Hwy #1 south of Isabella. Take #1 north until you hit #2 then go south back to TH. It's a long drive. Plenty of scenery and even a moose or 2.

Cleared up well with the Canadian air moving through. And now the cool weather again with frost and freeze warnings up.

Last couple days been very hazy from all the smoke. Interesting to see the whole country is being affected.

That could be a double-edged sword. As needed as that rain was, now that the heat and growing season are nearly over, drying out in the ground takes longer. There's going to be plenty more precip this fall, so now flooding may be the next concern down the road.

A few more records yesterday for low max temps. Ashland, WI: 52 broke 54(1954) Mpls, MN: 50 broke 55(1929) Eau Claire, WI: 49 broke 58(1954) From N WI: ANTIGO 45 broke 55 (1935) APPLETON 49 broke 58 (1917) GREEN BAY 51 broke 55 (1917) MANITOWOC 54 broke 55 (1883,1917) MARSHFIELD 47 broke 56 (1954) MERRILL 47 broke 56 (1954) OSHKOSH 53 broke 60 (2001) RHINELANDER 49 broke 55 (1941,1954) WAUSAU E46** broke 56 (1911) WISCONSIN RAPIDS 49 broke 58 (1954) Record low St. Cloud, MN: 33 tied 1898 Lots of old records literally smashed by up to 10degF. Impressive cold snap.

Record low max temps at a few stations across MN and WI for Sept 8th. Duluth, MN: 52 tied 1946 Brainerd, MN: 52 tied 1946 Ashland, WI: 52 tied 1929 Mpls, MN: 52 broke 54(1929) St. Cloud, MN: 53 broke 54(1929,1946) Eau Claire, WI: 54 broke 60(1946) Slew of stations from N WI ANTIGO 49 broke 55 1911 APPLETON 55 broke 57 1943 MARSHFIELD 51 broke 56 1946 MERRILL 52 broke 57 1943 OSHKOSH 59 TIED 59 2008 RHINELANDER 50 broke 53 1943 WAUSAU 51 broke 55 1911 STEVENS POINT 52 broke 55 1924 WISCONSIN RAPIDS 53 broke 54 1975 Even Sioux Falls, SD: 49 tied 1929 I'm sure there are many more.

The crops this year are getting hit hard in some areas, and last year was really bad overall. Hope folks are stocking up best they can, and practice fasting. Our forefathers had to go through stuff like this, what makes us better than them? The age of gluttony coming to an end? Just food for thought.

Dr Roy Spencer put up a blog post concerning this event. Read it here. Shows how often derechos hit certain areas of the country and sat image comparison. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/09/derecho-iowa-corn-damage-imaged-by-satellite/

Currently in the mid-upper 50's around here. Heater kicked on this morning, but that's just par for the course. Believe it or not, I keep the thermostat on during the summer. It still kicks on in early June, and a couple times during the summer. Why? Because it keeps the cob webs from building up, and I know it will run when I need it. Just like a car that sits too long will have more problems when you run it again, than if you run it off and on.

Frost and freeze warnings out for Tues and Wed mornings. Just like I thought in my fall forecast. Early Sept really getting on the cool side now.

Another very nice day, but that's over tonight with 40mph+ winds and chilly weather on tap. Winds set to peak during the overnight. Gale warnings up over big lake.

Another beautiful day with temps in the low 70's. One more nice day tomorrow with a chance of storms, then bye-bye late summer weather.

I'll get around to the big holidays soon.

For that time of year, I'd expect some white stuff.

Next weeks rains south/east of me should be cleared out by Friday(11th) into Saturday(12th) with maybe the eastern most areas of our region still seeing some Sat. At least my models are suggesting that, and gov models look ok with that too, today.

Pleasant day today with temps around 70. Quite the seasonal day. Unfortunately, October weather for next week around here. I like Fall, but the abrupt change is harsh so early in the season. Seems my forecast of a cooler first half of Sept, with widespread frost/freeze potential in the north areas, should pan out for most.