Brian D

A new Holiday forecast thread for the upcoming year, 2021. Post your own thoughts and forecasts and lets see how they do.

Well, I was close on the map. I saw low pressure affecting the eastern/southern Lakes. The evolution to this day was off in my comments tho.

What do you call the this next one on New Years day.... Chipolte Express?

Ended up with 6-8" here, with 4-6" south and west of me. Powder snow. Have a good snow cover to help against the cold.

3-6" for my location with this system. Snow will be starting here soon. Enjoy your snow the next few days everyone

My own modelling is showing low pressure moving E to NE with it over the C Lakes by New Years Eve, and New Years Day, (in my holiday forecast thread) I show high pressure over the upper Midwest with low pressure over the E Lakes, which I posted 2 months ago. I had thought it could be a clipper sinking in over the plains, back then, moving east, but looks like a CO low set up. A secondary low moving up from the south over the east lakes wasn't on my radar for the 1st, but sneaky things do happen

A SSW event for the N Hemisphere is forecast to start sometime in Jan. This will have a big impact somewhere. My outlook for this winter (in the holiday forecast thread I made), I mention the colder weather, with some some milder temps mixed in for Jan, with what looks to be very cold weather for late Jan into Feb, with Feb looking pretty cold. https://watchers.news/2020/12/23/major-sudden-stratospheric-warming-january-2021/

Well, here we go again Upper Midwesterners. The potential for another strong hit. Post your thoughts and model runs in the coming days.

Low of -8 this morning with wind chills -20. First brutal cold wave of the season. Next snow chance will bring light-mod snows with the Lake involved on Sun. Then Wed could be another dump for the Upper Midwest with the Lake involved heavily. With the bitter air around, we get it good on a E/NE wind with low pressure, and warmer waters.

6-8" is about what I expected when the storm wound down, and so the reports are around that. Grand Marais well up the shore near the border ended with almost a foot, and winds hit 70mph. Big tree was felled over Hwy 61. Good wind maker of a storm, lacking in the snow dept tho for my town. Next up is in about a week with some Lake effect on tap with the next wave for the area here.

2020 was a year of extremes in not only weather, but in many other ways. I think we adapt so quickly to stuff now, that in the end, it seems like nothing, when in fact it was something. The west coast could drop in the sea, and we would aghast for a week or two, then back to whatever we were doing before, even complaining how boring it is.

Heavy band of snow is migrating east over the Lake. It's not snowing as hard as it was earlier. No early snow reports yet, but they did get 4-6" up near the border from last night's and this mornings snow bands that made their way up there at the start. Look's like the slow wind down is starting as the low heads NE into the W UP MI. I say 6-8" by morning will be a common number around here

Dang. Wind gusts are starting to near or exceed 50mph up this way too at some locales.

NWS issued a blizzard warning for us. It really bad out there right now. My wife came back from our son's place just a 1/2 mile away, and she had a dickens of a time seeing anything.

It continues to get heavier. I can see a block now. Less on the gusts. EDIT: added pic and BTW, back in the mid 90's, we had a storm with such heavy snow with wind like this, that I was unable to see that gray house across the street. That's a snowstorm!!

Ore docks disappearing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sD17hw6v4-8

Band of heavier snow now right along the coastline of the Lake. Starting to see it effects here with moderate snowfall.

Tried my digital camera for the first time. I only have flip phone( nothing else needed) so that's the way that is. Not too bad yet, snow is still moderately light.

Shot from the TH boat launch with ore docks in the background. EDIT: that ship in the background at the docks(white next to the dock there) is now pulling out to leave. Brave captain or dumb?

Radar returns are pretty healthy between the Iron Range and the Lake. Snowing pretty good. Still light here, tho, with 20-30mph winds. Few hrs of fun obs in store.

Winds have picked up here with a drizzle that is starting to turn to snow has I type this.

My local news is putting their snow forecast out, and this looks pretty good to me. Maybe even 10-15" should be down the shore towards Duluth.

WSW issued finally for NE MN. I think a blizzard warning might be in the offing for a little while tomorrow night. Lake Superior is gonna surprise me thinks. Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

Wednesday Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 1pm. Temperature rising to near 37 by 9am, then falling to around 15 during the remainder of the day. Windy, with an east wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around -2. Windy, with a north wind 25 to 30 mph decreasing to 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday A 20 percent chance of snow before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 6. Blustery, with a northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -5. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Christmas Day Partly sunny, with a high near 16. West wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Might be blizzard conditions here Wed eve into the night. The big lake is gonna surprise I think. With very cold N surface winds and mid levels out of the ENE to NE makes for Lake action on the North Shore. Seen that many times, and it always surprises the forecasters.

Here ya go Baum, I put this out at the same time as the other holidays. Although it being a clipper may not be the case. In taking a closer look, it could be a CO low moving NE through the Lakes. Either way, this is the set up I'm looking for, and it could be a good storm New Years Eve, exiting New Years Day.