Brian D
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Everything posted by Brian D
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GFS 00Z run last night has a close representation of my expectation for Halloween. Didn't have approaching system marked, as I didn't think it necessary, as high pressure will be the dominant feature that day, IMHO. Just being quick.
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Been seeing snow showers the last couple days. About a 0.1" in town yesterday morning. Just wet today with some early morning mix. Duluth has reported 2.7" total since yesterday, and there are widespread reports of 1-3" across NE MN/NW WI.
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For New Years, I have a Canadian front moving across the north with some energy in the south that I think has a chance to move north along the boundary. If not, it'll just get shunted east to southeast ward as high pressure settles in over the Lakes.
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Well here are my last forecasts of this year for Christmas, and New Years. For Christmas, looking a little mild with a potential system working through the western sub over the holiday period. This could be centered a bit more north, so we'll shall see how this pans outs.
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Hibbing seems to be an outlier. Even Duluth has snow recorded similar to I-Falls. Must an issue with making measurements or something.
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Just taking a look at Hibbing, MN records of early Oct snowfall, been a while since even 0.1" was recorded in the first half of the month. It's really chilly this time of year, so we'll see if we get something sticking up there tonight. I-Falls is a different story, they have more recent totals. I-Falls, MN recent early Oct records.
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And so it begins.
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Duluth made it to #3 warmth yesterday. Was watching my grandsons football game yesterday evening. Awesome weather. Mid 60's in town with 70 at the airport. Duluth, MN 2015 84 1 1995 79 2 2022 77 3 1934/55 76 4 1938 75 5
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Very so-so forecast, not much precip, and the high moved in a little quicker.
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Computer down for the last few days. Got a new one, and have been busy today updating everything. Pain, but not too bad. Data for Sept showing another warm one. 8 of the last 10 have been that way in recent years with 2014/2020 being near average.
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This is Halloween weather. A slap in the face for early Oct. And I have another round indicated around the 10th as per my forecast in the Holiday thread.
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Sept ended a little above average here in town thanks to the cooler weather we've had since the equinox. Temp avg was 58.5 (57.8), and precip was average at 3.83" (3.53").
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That's pretty cold for down that way. What's the average low suppose to be there?
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High of 56 yesterday with 39 this morning in town. Heater kicking in now and then. Airport had 55, and 34 this morning. In the Spring, this feels really nice, but now it's really chilly. lol
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3:30 am it 42 in town with 34 at airport. Time for bed
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65 yesterday with 39 this am in town. 36 at the airport. Fall is here. Colors are just starting. A little behind in NE MN because of the warmer weather, but with colder am's in store, things will change quickly.
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Low 80's and a little humid. Feels like is mid 80's. Very nice. Last gasp of summer.
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Going to be a full day slow on this one. Ridge will be firmly planted on the day of the equinox.
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Fall coming in right on cue. Temps will be in the upper 50's to low 60's starting mid week with chilly mornings at the equinox. That's seasonable weather here. Basically average to a little below average. This forecast for town is near shore, so we are generally a little warmer than away from the lake. Forecast shows cooler conditions away from the lake.
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Last 3 days netted 1.11" of rain here in town. Only 0.83' at the airport NW of town. Sept has over 3" of rain for the month so far, so that is pretty good. Making up for some of the deficit from the summer. Max temps this month have mostly been near avg to above. The lows, tho, have been mostly warm for this time of year. A little extra summer is always good. The cool/cold season is long.
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Thanksgiving day is looking pretty mellow. Chilly am tho.
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Looking into Nov, My forecast foe Veteran's Day has a system moving through with some wet weather, and mix across the north.
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Been a nice Sept so far with some cooler weather in the mix, but now plenty of rain on tap the next few days. Flood watch out for NE MN.
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A week out, and looks like a good call at this point, but we'll see as we get a couple more days closer.
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I was looking at the Summer chart for our region, and I added 1 std dev to it, and sure enough, we tend to have more average to above average summers than average to below average ones when using the 20th century as a baseline. Just an interesting tid bit. And you can also see the number of years outside that range.
