Brian D

Very blah weather last few days. Seasonable, cloudy with a few sprinkles here and there. Geese moving hard, too. After a mild start to Fall, reality has finally set in. Onward to an active, and at times, bitter Winter.

06z GFS showing pattern I'm looking for on Veteran's Day.

Halloween pattern on track. Few days to go.

Typical mid-Oct day, cold, and windy. Grandsons have their last junior high football game this afternoon. Hits will hurt a little more with the chill. And they will learn the crotch, hand warming technique. LOL

06Z GFs showing the pattern I see during this time frame. Lets see if it works out.

Close call.

1.2" of rain at the arpt. Warned cell just clipped the airport giving more rain than town. 0.6" here in town. Doing well with the rain this Fall. Chilly out today with temps near normal in the upper 50's. Looks like seasonable weather for the upcoming week.

Svr watch this evening. Had a warned cell. Since Fri have had 1.2" of rain. Very Sept like the past few days.

Here's how the stations ranked last month. Some still out, while some with (M) still in the middle of processing. Pretty warm Sept. Generally above avg to well above avg with some near record/record readings. A couple top 20 cool min readings are in there too. Localized effects. Number of unique max temp readings per station avg in the low 80's, and min readings avg in the mid 70's so you can see about where they lie in the ranking. Also included prelim anomaly chart, which I switched to a 1901-2000 baseline.

Cool, overcast with mist today. Very fallish. Geese have been moving the last couple weeks very slowly, but steadily. Weather has been good for them, so no need to move hard. Eat, crap everywhere, and move on.

0.39" here in town (0.79" arpt) of much needed rain yesterday. Warm, muggy day yesterday to a cool, cloudy day today with heavy fog possible tonight.

Not a drop of rain with the scattered weather around here. Maybe later tonight. Since weather is so warm, might be a good time to pull this out so everyone can see how hot it has been in the past. Definitely teasing, if not breaking, some of these coming up.

Cold with CA fronts. Nothing major, except LES, it looks like to me. The holiday week in general looks rather chilly, with some storm/snow chances.

Ok, here's my Christmas forecast. Front moving through with an area of low pressure from the west possibly running ahead, or along the boundary. The other scenario is the low hangs back, or gets shunted south. But frontal activity will moving through the Christmas holiday.

Well, lets see if this long range GFS pattern ends up being what I'm seeing for this time frame.

As the rain came in there, temps went from mid 50's to mid 40's. Here in TH, the rain was ending and temps went up to around 60 as the sun peaked out for a while. That light rain sure cooled us down for a bit.

Temps in the upper 50's this morning cooled to the upper 40's with the rain. Got around 0.1" and temps are now back into the low 50's this aftrn. Cold out today.

Picked up 0.81" of rain (0.76" arpt) bringing us just above normal for the month. More Canadian geese on the move recently, but nothing big. Small flocks moving around. Canadian weather not bad enough yet to get them moving hard.

Looking to get some good soaking rains here soon. Very muggy out today. as was last night. Rains across MN are putting a dent in the deficits from earlier this year.

Thanksgiving forecast. Wet(some mix/snow) weather moving through Thanksgiving day into Black Friday.

First frost potential coming up tomorrow morning. Running a little late, but we had some back in July too.

Thunder train last night. Storms rolling through one after the other. Very warm, and muggy on the SW flow ahead of the front. 2.3" at the arpt, and 1.57" here in town. Some svr weather put down hail (3" hail size was reported just west of Duluth). Tornado watch was out for a while, but nothing developed. Here in town, normal rain is 3.53" for the month, so closing fast with 2.88" and more rains coming early next week. Still well below normal for the year, tho, with 6-7" of deficit.

About 0.25" of rain early this morning (a little thunder mixed in too) with more on the way tonight. A very nice late summer day with temps in the upper 70's.

Call this one a bust. High pressure is going to move in and shunt the low pressure system to the south, instead of moving along the boundary ENE. "Day late, and a dollar short" with this one.

Looking ahead with my modelling method is very suggestive of more frequent arctic air intrusions throughout the winter than last year. I'm expecting a more normal type winter across the northern areas for sure.