Brian D

12z GFS is picking up on the pattern for this time frame that I'm seeing. Going to be a very interesting one.

Duluth NWS office discussion on this upcoming system. Much more conservative on snow total potential than GFS keeps showing. Just a sloppy mess on tap, but you never know, just a little bit more cold air, and you have a heavy snow event. Getting more interesting. Initial precipitation associated with this feature should move into the area on Wednesday as warm air advection overspreads the western Great Lakes and upper Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, much of our region will reside in a couplet-jet configuration, as a deep trough advances east across the central Plains and upper ridging prevails over eastern Canada. These features, combined with the aforementioned trough axis, will lead to low pressure development across the lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday night with nearly all global solutions now showing this feature lifting north to western Lake Superior by 00z Friday. After this, models show the low stalling and occluding as we head into the start of next weekend. Previously mentioned rain on Wednesday will change to a rain/snow mix by Wednesday night with this trend continuing through Friday before the rain/snow mix eventually turns to all snow Friday night as cooler air is drawn southward with time. It`s at this point where minor accumulations will be possible across portions of northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, with lake effect snow showers persisting the upcoming weekend for South Shore locations. Additional accumulations will be possible, however it`s still too early to get excited simply based on the large distance into the forecast period. What does seem certain is that our region will finally have it`s first taste of winter as we head into the late work week and upcoming weekend.

It'll be mainly rain/mix for me. Warm air being funneled northward, along with warmer lake waters. Typical this time of year for the shoreline. The ridges will pick some wet snow. I could see some backside snows, as the wind turns N/NW. Models really want to lay down some good snow totals across the Northland, tho.

Here's Duluth's 2 day snow totals between Nov 1-15. The above event would be a rare one like the Halloween event of 1991 for early snow season. 32.6 1991-11-01 1991-11-02 28.3 1991-10-31 1991-11-01 13.9 1992-11-02 1992-11-03 12.2 1956-11-14 1956-11-15 11.9 1956-11-15 1956-11-16 10.9 2010-11-13 2010-11-14 9.8 2000-11-12 2000-11-13 9.6 1992-11-01 1992-11-02 8.8 1955-11-15 1955-11-16 8.7 2020-11-14 2020-11-15 8.6 1991-11-02 1991-11-03 8.4 1919-11-05 1919-11-06 8.2 1998-11-09 1998-11-10 8.1 1993-11-04 1993-11-05 8.0 2014-11-10 2014-11-11 These are 1 day totals. 24.1 1991-11-01 1991-11-01 11.1 1956-11-15 1956-11-15 8.6 1992-11-02 1992-11-02 8.5 1991-11-02 1991-11-02 7.3 2020-11-10 2020-11-10 7.2 1998-11-10 1998-11-10 7.1 2010-11-13 2010-11-13 6.7 2000-11-12 2000-11-12 6.3 1993-11-04 1993-11-04 6.1 2003-11-04 2003-11-04 6.0 1920-11-08 1920-11-08 5.5 1996-11-15 1996-11-15 5.3 1936-11-06 1936-11-06 5.3 1992-11-03 1992-11-03 5.2 2020-11-15 2020-11-15

GFS sure likes the bomb over my area on Vets Day. Kitchen sink might be there too. LOL. I do have a system moving in, tho, in my Holiday Forecast thread with a southern low. Will be interesting to see how this pans out.

Here's the Oct chart, and rankings by max, and high min. Fifth place overall since 1850. Max averages were very respectable over parts of the region, with high min averages seeing quite a few near records/records, especially in the eastern areas. Very impressive.

Quite a few people don't like it. Preparation is key, but it still does have a game taste. Their main diet during the last couple months before being harvested really can show up in the flavor. Corn fed deer are really good. Same with grouse. They taste better early in season, rather than later after the greens/berries are gone. They switch to more tree buds/cones.

Highs around here this weekend looking to be in the mid 50's. That's running about 10-15 dF above normal. Excellent start to deer season, which starts Saturday morning. Should be a strong harvest.

Jan-Oct top 5 avg temp for Duluth(threadex record). Used MRCC cli-mate tool. 1878 48.2 2012 48.0 1931 47.2 2021 47.0 1998 46.9

Two Harbors coop station has this year at 5th (dense rank) warmest avg temp. 1963 55.8 1920 52.8 1931 52.0 1947 51.8 2021 51.7 Duluth is tied for 6th warmest. 1963 55.9 1900 53.5 1947 52.3 1920 51.6 1931 50.9 1879 50.9 2021 50.7 1924 50.7

Cold, blustery, and snowing right now. Typical "popcorn" snow showers with temps in the mid-30's riding the NW flow. Supposed to make it into the low 40's today, and if it does, would only be for a brief time this afternoon. Looks nice by the weekend with highs around 50.

Here's the maps of the storm. 48 hrs of serious whoop ass. lol!

Very much so. Fresh out of the Army that summer, and partied a lot. Partied hard during that storm. Ran out of whiskey, and beer, and was stuck at home with no way to get more. That deer season was tough getting around the woods, too.

Good call. Starting to feel a little more like winter around here in the north.

Very blah weather last few days. Seasonable, cloudy with a few sprinkles here and there. Geese moving hard, too. After a mild start to Fall, reality has finally set in. Onward to an active, and at times, bitter Winter.

06z GFS showing pattern I'm looking for on Veteran's Day.

Halloween pattern on track. Few days to go.

Typical mid-Oct day, cold, and windy. Grandsons have their last junior high football game this afternoon. Hits will hurt a little more with the chill. And they will learn the crotch, hand warming technique. LOL

06Z GFs showing the pattern I see during this time frame. Lets see if it works out.

Close call.

1.2" of rain at the arpt. Warned cell just clipped the airport giving more rain than town. 0.6" here in town. Doing well with the rain this Fall. Chilly out today with temps near normal in the upper 50's. Looks like seasonable weather for the upcoming week.

Svr watch this evening. Had a warned cell. Since Fri have had 1.2" of rain. Very Sept like the past few days.

Here's how the stations ranked last month. Some still out, while some with (M) still in the middle of processing. Pretty warm Sept. Generally above avg to well above avg with some near record/record readings. A couple top 20 cool min readings are in there too. Localized effects. Number of unique max temp readings per station avg in the low 80's, and min readings avg in the mid 70's so you can see about where they lie in the ranking. Also included prelim anomaly chart, which I switched to a 1901-2000 baseline.

Cool, overcast with mist today. Very fallish. Geese have been moving the last couple weeks very slowly, but steadily. Weather has been good for them, so no need to move hard. Eat, crap everywhere, and move on.

0.39" here in town (0.79" arpt) of much needed rain yesterday. Warm, muggy day yesterday to a cool, cloudy day today with heavy fog possible tonight.