MN Transplant

Yup Perfect out this morning. Then I looked at the Euro and got sad.

The only good aspect of this is that the area SW of Beaumont that looks like it got hit the heaviest is fairly rural. I-10 in that area must be closed since there is no traffic reported on Google Maps.

Negative 850s get here on the 06z GFS.

Yeah, that's not great. Makes DCA's ASOS placement look positively rural.

I don't like new, calm mattie. Record high at DCA. At least 97.

93.7 at home. At least 94 so far at DCA. Awful

I'm pretty sure I saw this satellite image in "the day after tomorrow"

Racked up 0.05" here

That is awesome.

This is how far we've come with forecasting that an incorrect path "only 8 days ago" is noteworthy.

Blew it at DCA

Oh good, we topped a record today at DCA. 96. The prior record (95) was tied way back in 2018. Another big FU from Summer on the way out.

0.11” here but it has been rumbling in the distance for an hour.

The Euro has it running nearly the length of Grand Bahama Is. before making the turn. The 18z HWRF is scary. Landfall at Cape Canaveral.

I didn’t realize that Josh was there. He is in the eyewall now in Marsh Harbour. This is from a bit back.

The Euro has 100mph+ gusts at Freeport in the Bahamas from daybreak Monday to sundown Tuesday. That is rough.

216 - in SC and maybe headed up 95?

I get the concept though. You have the trough swinging through the lakes which is able to tug Dorian north, but it isn't strong enough or close enough to pull it out to sea with it. So the trough passes and you are left with weak steering currents. That would be a damn mess, because the inflow would stay over the water. Better for Orlando than the ones that "barrel" into the coast, but the coastal and freshwater flooding from Melbourne up to Jax would be significant.

Coastal scraper. HWRF is ~940 just south of Cape Canaveral.

Not a stretch. What is it, two Cat 4+ landfalls on the east coast in the last 50 years (Andrew, Hugo)?

Low of 59. Glorious.

Yes, it was awesome.

The problem with this kind of storm setup is that there is a lot of heat/moisture to fuel the storms, but the triggers are very subtle. Unlike a squall line or supercell where movement can be counted on, these cell just kind of ooze around and then die out. So, putting up a warning box is especially tough. The storm last night looked really healthy, and 30 min late it was remnant clouds. Nature of the beast. Not to mention, the areas that get hit by severe conditions are almost always very small.

Triple point boundary collision right at the bend of 495 in Annandale. See if anything comes of it. Great Falls getting hit. Again.