MN Transplant

Still 33/34 at DCA. Wonder if they’ll report much of anything.

Surprised you are still that warm. I’m 31.1. Do have to say, this is still low ratio stuff.

Sounds like fun. I’m in.

1.25” so far. Looks nice.

31.6 and moderate to heavy snow. Looking good.

32.7. Just starting to stick on mulch and elevated surfaces.

Temp seems to have turned over. Down to 34.5 and wet snowflakes.

We were all joking about DCA reporting a low total, now watch them get plastered.

18z HRRR, 6hr precip 5pm-11pm

18z HRRR has the inverted trough axis fractionally east. I clearly approve of the location.

35.6. 0.25" precip on the day. Got my hockey high this morning, now the doldrums until the snow starts this evening.

Gold! USA!

The locations show if you go sideways to landscape mode.

Yeah, that’s exactly what’s happening. Rates temporarily win but it is still way too warm overall. 34.9

Looks like the latter. Got some snowflakes in that heavier band, but back to rain now.

I have partially melted snowflake mixing in at 36.0 degrees

I certainly like the placement of the inverted trough on the models. But, I think anyone rooting for the 3km NAM early changeover outside of the favored areas is wishcasting. 12z sounding from Dulles. 72403 IAD Sterling Observations at 12Z 22 Feb 2026 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT THTA THTE THTV hPa m C C % g/kg deg knot K K K ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1005.0 93 3.4 1.9 90 4.39 330 5 276.2 288.3 276.9 1000.0 130 4.2 0.3 76 3.93 65 3 277.4 288.3 278.0 999.0 138 4.2 0.2 75 3.90 67 3 277.4 288.3 278.1 956.0 493 1.5 -0.6 86 3.85 140 10 278.2 289.0 278.9 938.0 646 0.3 -0.9 91 3.82 130 11 278.6 289.3 279.2 925.0 759 -0.5 -1.2 95 3.80 150 11 278.8 289.5 279.4 923.0 776 -0.7 -1.4 95 3.76 150 12 278.8 289.3 279.4 910.0 889 -1.3 -1.9 95 3.67 120 14 279.3 289.7 279.9 884.0 1120 -2.5 -3.0 96 3.49 130 10 280.4 290.4 281.0 883.0 1129 -2.5 -3.0 96 3.49 133 10 280.4 290.4 281.0 874.0 1211 -1.9 -2.2 98 3.74 156 10 281.9 292.6 282.5 859.0 1348 -2.8 -2.9 99 3.62 195 11 282.4 292.7 283.0 850.0 1432 -3.3 -3.3 100 3.54 215 8 282.7 292.9 283.3 841.0 1516 -3.7 -3.7 100 3.47 214 8 283.1 293.1 283.7 825.0 1668 -3.5 -3.5 100 3.60 212 9 284.9 295.3 285.5

Rain. 36.3

39/28

I don’t think I’ll break top-5 since 2016.

Not sure about moderate. We are tacking on 0.01 to 0.02”/hr from 3am on.

This is such a weird model battle. There's no doubt that the GFS "won" by catching on to the synoptics. But it was terrible for sensible weather, first spitting out monster amounts inland and then insisting that the main part of the event was during the day on Sunday.

I bet those get bumped by about an inch by the end of the day.

Doing some estimation, it looks like 0.5"-0.6" for a lot of us, which is a nice result and lands in the middle of the more conservative models and the NAMs.

You need to look at the forecast overnight. Tomorrow daytime is not relevant unless you are a true GFS believer.