MN Transplant

A rough 90-day stretch for many of us in VA and WV. An oddity - in my CoCoRahs record since 2014, the past three years have been the lowest year-to-date. 2023 recovered with a wet December, but 2024 didn't and finished as my driest year.

VT is a relatively small program compared to the others that you've listed, but that isn't necessarily a problem. I don't feel like meteorology has the same "ranking" hierarchy like law schools or business schools do. It is more about what skills you can develop. One thing to recognize is that meteorology has a very high "quit" ratio. A lot of students are attracted to it for all the same reasons why we are on this board, but the math and physics weeds out a lot of them, so it is always good to keep your options open. And with the job market the way it is and AI looming, the best candidates for jobs in the future in meteorology are probably going to be people that have diversified in some way. So, things like computing/AI, emergency management, energy, transportation, etc. The days of just getting a standard meteorology Bachelor's degree and then getting hired right away by the NWS or media is not dead, but a dwindling path.

0.08". The majority of models still give us some rain tomorrow. Otherwise, just dreary.

Sprinkles

The Dulles area has entered "severe drought". If this storm misses it would be extremely disappointing. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?VA

That's the best GEFS run so far for DC

We basically want the northern energy to capture the southern low as soon as possible. That keeps the pinwheeling cutoff mostly over land and drenches us. If the capture happens too late or the whole longwave pattern shifts a bit east, we may be mostly dry.

0.06" for my CoCoRahs report, and then got an additional ~0.08" with that last line. Hope the coastal pans out.

Can’t wait until Thursday and having most of the day in the 50s.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx

Yeah, we need the rain.

Driest Aug/Sept combo in my records, beating 2015. So, that 100% means an all-timer blizzard this year, right?

The decreasing mosquitos part of this would be welcome.

Backups in at 3 of the 5 OL positions plus Carson Wentz is not a recipe for a winning team.

Going to be weird to have two consecutive morning Sunday games for my Vikes.

0.01”

Some places have had rain. But, if the models are correct, many places in VA will go the better part of 3 months with less than 5” of rain.

This is a disaster. Right back to drought.

It is a really interesting how this evolves. As Humberto moves around the Atlantic ridge it "tugs" on Imelda by causing a path of least resistance. But Humberto is far enough along in the recurve that it accelerates north and allows the ridge to build over Imelda. How exactly this plays out determines how far offshore Imelda gets, which in turn affects how close it can get to the US coast when it gets picked up by the next trough. The 6z GFS pulls it pretty far out to sea, so any landfall is in the Canadian maritimes or not at all. The 6z Euro leaves it off the Carolina coast through 144, which is markedly different form the 0z run. The 0z GEM eventually takes it into New England! Is there a win for us? Very unlikely. We'd need for it to be left behind and just churn over the Gulf Stream and then have a trough dig far enough to bring it in to us. I'd be more optimistic about this in later October, but it seems like a pipe dream here.

I thought it was just the first storm, but then the fantasy-land up the Bay scenario popped up.

I think the absence of Darrisaw was a big factor in how JJM looked the first two weeks. Darrisaw just completely eliminating Hendrickson from that game was great.

0.02”

Yeah, it’s tough when the result is this

It does say "a few showers making it as far east as Southern MD". 90% of the area is dry. They probably should have put a 20% POP in, though..

0.76”. The DC beltway area did well with the afternoon round.