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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    39/28
  2. MN Transplant
    I don’t think I’ll break top-5 since 2016.
  3. MN Transplant
    Not sure about moderate. We are tacking on 0.01 to 0.02”/hr from 3am on.
  4. MN Transplant
    This is such a weird model battle. There's no doubt that the GFS "won" by catching on to the synoptics. But it was terrible for sensible weather, first spitting out monster amounts inland and then insisting that the main part of the event was during the day on Sunday.
  5. MN Transplant
    I bet those get bumped by about an inch by the end of the day.
  6. MN Transplant
    Doing some estimation, it looks like 0.5"-0.6" for a lot of us, which is a nice result and lands in the middle of the more conservative models and the NAMs.
  7. MN Transplant
    You need to look at the forecast overnight. Tomorrow daytime is not relevant unless you are a true GFS believer.
  8. MN Transplant
    RDPS (RGEM) similar, maybe 0.3"-0.4" in that timeframe, with the exception of the inverted trough which remains from Leesburg to Hagerstown.
  9. MN Transplant
    ICON looks fine. Ignore the snow maps, they are irrelevant. 0.3" precip falls in DC-Balt after 00z, and if we are taking 22z to be the changeover, there's likely another 0.1" added to that (I only have the 6-hr increments on Pivotal). So, that puts it in the 0.4" of snow QPF camp.
  10. MN Transplant
    The 3km is a really nice run. It has the 5-9pm period as a key for solid snow, but it also throws back more precip overnight, especially closer to the Bay. Verbatim, there is 0.65" of precip after 5pm in DC and nearly 0.9" in Baltimore.
  11. MN Transplant
    HRRR is ~0.2-0.4" QPF after 5pm. That's our event.
  12. MN Transplant
    On one level, this is a mess of a forecast because the models are all over the place. On another, this is really just a straightforward event where we lean on climo. It isn't going to accumulate during the day in the metro areas and while the precip blossoms again with the low cranking, the broader shield isn't going to be particularly heavy. 2-4" should cover it for most of us, with less in the unfortunate areas on the tarmac at DCA, and more in the hills.
  13. MN Transplant
    Don’t worry, when we have 4” of slop while the rest of the NE corridor is buried, you’ll feel at ease.
  14. MN Transplant
    It’s nice how everyone is getting pumped for a PHL/NYC/BOS storm.
  15. MN Transplant
    The HRRR is a believable scenario. Comes in with a good slug of early moisture, lulls midday, and then ramps back up and cools down late afternoon into evening.
  16. MN Transplant
  17. MN Transplant
    Not even the GFS is doing what the GFS was doing. Those 3-4" QPF runs were pure fantasy.
  18. MN Transplant
    Sticking with the solution. If it goes down, it is going down swinging.
  19. MN Transplant
    Trying this again. 18z except for the UKMET/GFS/Euro. Precip that falls after 00z (Sunday 7pm) which should be able to accumulate outside of the favored areas.
  20. MN Transplant
    ICON is 0.4-0.5" QPF after 00z Monday from Frederick/Loudoun/Fairfax and east.
  21. MN Transplant
    The Nest has half the precipitation as the parent through 60 hours. On some areas of the DelMarVa it is 1/3. My assumption is that nothing that falls before 21z will accumulate, and then we get the trough action.
  22. MN Transplant
    I understand why we are ignoring it, but the NAM 3km is a torch at the surface. Still 37/38 by late afternoon Sunday.
  23. MN Transplant
    Pretty sure everyone here is using IVT wrong. I also know it as you stated, but I think people here are using it as shorthand for inverted trough.
  24. MN Transplant
    That was the most exaggerated difference between my house and downtown. Seeing Cantore on the mall with nothing and 4" of absolute paste in my yard was unreal.
  25. MN Transplant
    I had 4"+ of snow from both March 2013 storms and neither dropped below 33 degrees.
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