Ahoff

Ah, makes sense. Hopefully, it is over done. Sounds pretty good for the Euro though, I'd take it. Also, looks like the next system the Euro has after Tuesday (Thurs.-Fri.) has come east and south from the previous run. Better for us, but the ice it depicts is crazy throughout the state.

I know it can happen, but I'd bet it's fairly rare. I'm with you on believing if it is that cold with precip it will likely be snow. It just seems hard to believe to me that that much warmth up above wouldn't mix down at least somewhat to the surface.

Sorry, what's WTOD?

12z GFS leaves a bit to be desired on the Mon-Tues storm. It still looks like an improvement, but need a slight tick south still, but plenty of time. It's showing temps in the teens, but freezing rain straddling the area. North of downtown is looking much better than south right now. Also, it keeps the low in GA and the Carolinas, before exiting the Virginia coast, I find it hard to believe it would pump that much warmth into the 850 level from that far south. It's a nearly perfect track at this point, so we'll see.

Can't begin to worry about rain with that storm before we get through these multiple other threats. As other have said some of these systems have gone west and trend back east. May just be the trend this year, so we can't take late week storms next week with any seriousness right now. Just a very active pattern.

Looks like the radar is drying up already.

I’m not worried as much about that. I just don’t want rain if they get 10” of snow. It’s just be weird.

I will say despite how great this winter has been, if Dallas gets a lot of snow and cold and we get rain from the same storm I will be pissed, lol!

Snowing hard right now.

For what, tonight?

Would the upper atmosphere get that warm with the cold air entrenched?

Wasn't really supposed to start until 4 anyway.

I meant like how accurate is it.

How good is the GFS-Para?

No, I know that, I was just wondering what that snow would look like. Verbatim on that run the 850 was the only level that was that warm, but still below freezing here, so keeping the snow falling in Allegheny County. Just wonder if the snow would be wetter, or drier and fluffier with warmer atmosphere, and really cold surface. Don't think I've seen that big of a difference in air temp and upper air temp.

That storm early next week looks great on the GFS. Some really heavy rates and a temperature of 17! Though the 850 level was close to freezing here, above in the ridges, wonder what that would do to the snow? Would it be wet at 17 degrees and immediately freeze, or would it still be fluffy and dry? At hr 162 on the GFS our 6 hr snow accumulation is 7.2"!

By the same metric we could question January 1977 at around an 11 degree average, as the coldest month of all time by around 6 degrees. Now there are people who can corroborate that as many were alive then, and it is an actual temperature. How do we know September 1881 wasn't that warm? We've seen very warm Septembers, maybe that was on steriods. It can happen. Plus that September recorded a few 100 degree days, which has never happened since, oh except in 1884. I also find it interesting that it seems we don't see highs that are as extreme as they used to be. Looking through the records it seems years ago we had yearly maxes that were vhigher than today. Taking each decade since 1940 Most are relatively close, with the 40s having the highest decadal mean high at 95, the 2000s are the lowest at 91. The last decade (2010s) was 93. 40s were 95, 50s were 94, 60s were 94, 70s were 92, 80s were 94, 90s were 94, 00s were 91 and 10s were 93. While they're all close, as averages it seems significant that our highs don't seem to be getting quite as high as they used to.

This already came down from 3-4" yesterday, so they look to be adjusting down.

Ok. I thought they took observations on the North Side before KPIT.

Just out of curiosity, how much warmer do we think the City of Pittsburgh (somewhere in the city limits but not downtown) would be vs. KPIT? The weather app on my phone shows a difference from my location (in the city) and KPIT mostly of 2 degrees. So, do we really think those records from the 1880s and 1890s or even the early 1900s would be that much different at the airport? I mean the City wasn't hugely built up then, and even if it were 2 degrees different, many of those records would still be standing.

Clippers and lake effect a staple in the Fall? I don't recall that. This summer was hot, especially July. Maybe just because of that stretch of 8 straight 90 degree days, and 12 total overall. It didn't feel all that humid (relative to normal humid), maybe due to being in drought conditions. Also, the drought and overall drier trend since May has been welcome, after two of the rainforest years ever.

FYI, UK this morning sent our temperatures on Monday to all time record levels.

I disagree, if we look at climate change we are looking at anomolous warmth in the Artic, that warmth is displacing cold, and it has to go somewhere. The bulk of this season it has been stationed over Siberia into Europe, an area that was very warm last winter. Siberia had one of its coldest Decembers ever. That artic cold does continue to drop down, just hasn't visited here since 2019, heck it's only in the midwest not too far away. Will it visit this year, maybe, maybe not? But this did not define whether the winter was a winner or not.

That’s the point, these models have flipped back and forth each day. One shows brutal cold one day while the other shows regular cold, then they reverse. We’ll see what happens, it’s not the end of the world if it doesn’t go below 0, or below 8 or whatever. It will again at some point, if it isn’t this year it will be another year. It’s been a great winter regardless.

Yesterday there were a few runs where the Euro was bringing in well below 0 weather. I saw -12 one run and -18 in another.