Prospero
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Everything posted by Prospero
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Model for us to hug this morning around Tampa Bay...
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Just need a model to hug tonight...
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The GFS generally has more weight with me, and October 11 is far away date for now, but will be paying attention...
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Oh yea, Charlie, it had us in the cross-hairs in Tampa Bay up to a few hours before landfall. So many people evacuated with a historic traffic jam on the bridges to go to Orlando for safety. Charlie did a surprise hard right at Port Charlotte and mostly missed Tampa Bay. But my friends who went to Orlando had stories of trees falling down in hotel parking lots, power being out, so on. One person came home to a waterfront home on the intercoastal waterway here and their old dried out Christmas tree from the year before was still sitting on their boat dock. I was in Sun City Center in southeast Hillsborough County watching shutters and roof tiles fly down the road. I watched for a couple hours, still daylight which seems to be a real treat for us storm geeks. They have very few trees in that senior community, but driving around the next morning did see a lot of trees down on the main highways and streets. There was a mile long swath on I-75 just north of the Port Charlotte exit where it was obvious the eye wall came through. Wow, it was a Cat 5 if I remember right. Looked more like a wide tornado path came by. Trees snapped off like match sticks. Francis and Jeanne were both stronger in this area the same year very soon after. What a year.
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Have to give the GFS-parallel the prize for the eye catchers this year. How did it actually do?
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If I had a dollar for every time a model showed a storm passing by or over Tampa Bay this season, well... I suppose I could buy a large extra crispy mushroom pineapple pizza and a 12 pack of Amber Bock.
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Watching here in Gulfport Florida. We never get too relaxed this time of year. Granted, it is quiet now and absolutely gorgeous as far as weather. But as the Grateful Dead say, "When life looks like Easy Street, there is danger at your door". Even so, it does feel like things are over here for us. Kind of hoping, we were very lucky so far for 2020. It has been interesting season (ok maybe trolling Ghost of Leroy), and we felt several storms with gusts in the TS range, a lot of rain at times, mild surges, etc., but all in all very easy season for the central west coast of Florida. We were in five day cones, so we did have moments of excitement. LOL
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Wow! Kind of surreal.
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A Wilma that wind shear takes down to a TS a few hours before landfall works for me. We've dodged a few this year, and have barely done any prep, but could handle the thrill (and fear) as long as we don't lose power or any more trees. Irma took all of our morning to noon shade Oaks and our electric bill went way up keeping out house cool in the summer since. I'd even be open to a decent 6-8 ft storm surge and our humble town of Gulfport, Florida would recover and everyone would pitch in to help out the businesses downtown. (They may not agree so much though...) I suppose a 6-8 ft storm surge here might be closer to 12 ft or more in downtown Tampa where the Tampa Bay might be pushed up, so that would not be good news for Tampa. I'd rather no more storms for Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, or the Florida panhandle this year. They got their share already. Of course I'd rather a weak storm hit here on the weekend when I am not working as much so I can enjoy it more. So far I give the season an A-. It started early, kept busy, a lot of hours watching and reading here and there, and I really haven't been bored til now. But with the absolutely gorgeous weather the past couple days here on the central west coast of Florida, no complaints at all.
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I'm pretty sure every mile of the Gulf Coast and most, if not all of the Atlantic Coast of the US has been in a cone at least once this season. Makes for an interesting season so far...
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Of course we had the total non-attention getter over Florida that became Omar I posted about during a day like today. Who remembers Omar during 2020? EDIT: Added: Neighbors lost power here in Gulfport, FL. Granted nothing like other areas this year, but for a system with 0% chance of development at the 8PM update, a spinning low over Florida still gets our attention. Seems like over warm Gulf waters late tonight it might flair up a bit before it meets its demise. Already sustained winds at 30 mph around here.
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Any bets this is a TD by sometime tomorrow? Long term it will probably not develop much, maybe not a name. But around here we are never surprised to wake up and check the news to see a TD developed overnight when we were asleep. Watching the palms sway, oaks dance, feeling a very stiff steady warm breeze, it feels like "something", again. Then I watched a large swallowtail butterfly that was in the wind effortlessly fly from one hibiscus flower to the next as they were moving to and fro. It must weigh less than a typical bird feather, and had the DNA programming to adjust its wings and work with the wind, not against. Incredible.
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Just got home after being away this afternoon a few hours. One of the strongest wind days of the season and we've lost count on how many storms have touched us here this year around Tampa Bay. 35 mph gusts at Clam Bayou a few blocks from here on the water. Palm fronds scattered around the yard, few old dead oak branches down, potted plants tipped over, loose items tossed around outside, and I am taking down my wind chimes as they sound like a horror movie soundtrack as opposed to soft tinkling relaxing sounds we are used to...
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" Trouble ahead, trouble behind - And you know that notion just crossed my mind"
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I know Tampa is highly vulnerable to storm surge. On local news when Charlie was expected to smash Tampa Bay, and also as Irma was looking to run just off the coast into Tampa Bay, mets described the potential for a 30 ft storm surge due to the shallow waters of Tampa Bay being pushed into downtown Tampa. So much of Tampa is merely a few feet above sea-level it would be devastating. I remember the graphics they showed (which I am sure are in their pocket ready to pull out next time a storm is threatening). Is there anywhere more vulnerable than Tampa Bay for storm surge?
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Hype > Disappointment 60 years old and whether it is watching weather (hurricanes or blizzards), sports, news, going to parties or concerts, even waking up and checking email, it is the rocket fuel that powers the motivation vehicles every day of my life. Give me crazy highs and horrible lows, spare me mediocrity please. Rather be excited about possibilities that never occur, than apathetic about anything. Waiting for that giant beautiful perfect Cat 5 spinning in the Gulf of Mexico this year but never making landfall or knocking out anyone's power for more than a couple hours. Yet we all feel it from Texas to Key West and have big waves and personal stories to tell. Imagine the Hype > Disappointment while these forums and chasers go crazy with posts! Oh yea! Bring it on, Hype first, then at the last minute Disappointment (and very sincere relief).
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Teddy is destined to be a Texas storm...
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I wouldn't dismiss the possibility, especially with the changes we may be seeing.
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Most of us here on the Gulf Coast of FL never assume a season is over until its official. We relax at Thanksgiving, but even then do not take for granted its over.
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A question that is important for GOM coast communities; is there much as far as future models for storms that pop up and become powerful storms that are not waves from Africa? I know here in the Tampa Bay area, we've woken up to TDs that formed overnight just off the coast with a big surprise to many of us. Waves off of Africa are tracked for a long time, but GOM storms are short notice. Right?
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Everybody keep posting until past the election please, or I will lose it.
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This would keep us all busy...
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I think I'll be saying it was an exciting year and a win (from this point forward). We've had enough landfalls already that people are going to be dealing with a very long time. I love a storm as much or more than anybody, but I'd be tickled pink with nothing but a record fish spinner that we can all talk about for years. (Might be a few ships out there not so thrilled...)
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Francis, September 5, 2004. Charlie had just passed to the south close enough for me to watch roof tiles and window shutters fly down the street like newspapers in Sun City Center. Francis was huge and blew wind and poured rain, and was impressive to watch and listen to. Francis was affecting the entire Florida peninsula. Jeanne came by soon after in the middle of the night and it was after it moved over the Gulf that trees blew down and power went out for days. It woke me up around 3 AM as it was trying to suck a window A/C unit from my bedroom making a horrible whistling sound. I grabbed a sat pic soon of Francis after as the eye was over us on the 5th (see below).
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My crystal ball is all over the place. October 13th/14th is a doozy in the Gulf, but landfall is vague with Teddy. The stars appear to hint at Texas...
