NorthHillsWx

3.21” 2-day total. Wetness reigns supreme in the yard once again

2.94” with additional rain falling this morning. Some places inside the beltline show 5-6” since yesterday on radar scope

I said September 2 was when I was pressing the bust button for the hyperactive season, and here we are.

2.20” and counting EDIT: pushing 3” now with steady moderate/heavy rain

1 inch and counting. Another heavy thunderstorm

If you’d told me my MTD for August would be 11.30” but it didn’t rain a drop from August 9-30 I’d probably have to doubt that total was achievable but that is what we got! We had 3 rain events (though Debby was multi-day) that resulted in 11.30”. Talk about maximizing the events given to you!

We’re over 2” EDIT: 2.41” storm total. Power still out

Dime sized. Maybe a few bigger. I’d grabbed a couple to tell if I hadn’t been too scared of getting struck. My street is without power, believe lighting hit the line in front of my house

This has gotta be one of the worst storms since I’ve lived here. Scary lightning, power out, big hail

Also- looks like Josh scored at least part of the eye. Given the layout of that coastline and variable forecast that’s a pretty impressive score for him

Though the storm degraded significantly before landfall, it still had a ferocious NE eyewall that unfortunately hit/is hitting a large swath of coastline. No doubt a large area seeing 100+ mph gusts.

Beryl kinda feels like a couple seasons ago but a populated island took a direct hit from a 155 mph monster in July. I wonder how the recovery is going down there, those islands were leveled. Of course the news stopped caring the next day as it set its sites further west

I'm not convinced that westerly shear is the culprit for weakening here. I think the problem a TC experiences in its current location is downsloping off of Kyushu's mountainous terrain. About 12 hours ago, there was a pass that showed significant deformation in the eyewall and a replacement cycle in progress. Then, the entire western band disintegrated as the northern circulation moved over the greater Kyushu landmass. If you watch satellite and radar animation through the same timeframe, it's rather neat to see the landmass of Kyushu having effects on Shanshan's structure. I agree we're looking at a Cat 1-2 in windspeeds, most likely. But in hindsight, this is a massive typhoon and large circulation. A dangerous situation is unfolding if it continues to crawl at a slow pace through landfall and progresses slowly over the Kagoshima prefecture. Precipitation amounts may lead to a historical event, unfortunately. That theory could definitely hold weight, we see that all the time with storms that approach high elevation areas in the pacific. However this storm has been dealing with westerly shear to varying degrees for some days now, even when it was at its peak, and it seemed that once the central convection began to wane, likely due to upwelling and not getting the same interaction with ULL including the difluent flow over top and ventilation, the shear was able to really rip the western eyewall apart quickly. I’m not sure what the cause is but modeling consistently overestimates LF intensity in this region really unlike anywhere else that is frequently impacted by typhoons. I’d say that overall, landmasses in this area probably are not modeled correctly in terms of their impact on impeding cyclonic flow for high intensity storms. This one’s been fun to watch, another storm that spent most of its life in radar range. We’ve been spoiled by these this season

Due likely to upwelling and westerly shear, Shanshan is a shell of its former self. Massive flooding impacts likely, but this will be a cat 1, minimal cat 2 landfall. It’s so hard to get a high end landfall in mainland Japan. As for flooding, this could be catastrophic given the topography of that area and the slow movement of the system. I do not want to mitigate the impact by stating the LF intensity will be significantly lower than feared

It’s unbelievable I’m saying this but we could use some rain. The fall food plots are drying out quick and I’m back to watering my yard every day

I’m not sure the westward corrections are finished either. It’s already trending west of track today

Shanshan looks extremely ragged this morning. Not sure this was expected

Agreed. But there’s a long way to go to reach the 11/5 when we’re at 3/1 on September 2 with nothing on the horizon *if* that happens (per my post). That wasn’t a call or a forecast, just simply saying that’s when I’d have doubt on the crazy pre-season forecasts we were provided

I’ll believe it when I see it. This is a notorious track for a weakening 70-85 kt storm after a week of major hurricane hits on models. Shear and cooler waters ensure this will be weakening into landfall the only question is how much. Still a serious storm, don’t get me wrong, but this won’t be close to cat 4, and I STRONGLY doubt cat 3

When do we press the “bust” button on the hyperactive season? My opinion is September 2. If models are completely dead then, it’s almost impossible to reach 20 storms (15 in the second week of September through the end of the season). This year, with the pre-season forecasts and recency bias, less than 20 named storms would be a bit of a bust, but 15 or less would me a MAJOR bust. It only takes one, but with the most aggressive pre season forecasts EVER, this seems like a year that the term BUST has a wider goal posts than normal

This weather is incredible.

If we make it 21 days, that will mark the 3rd 3 week stretch without measurable rainfall this year! Talk about inconsistent rains. That’s actually a wild stat

Now looks highly likely we’ll make it 21 days through the end of the month without measurable rainfall. Last measurable rain here was the 9th. At least we’re guaranteed an above average month!

East and Central Pac on fire. We know what that usually means for our side…

Hurricane Michael confirms…