NorthHillsWx

We didn’t make it quite to 95 here. High of 94.7

Approaching 2 million customers out. Core of highest winds definitely tracked right over Houston. This is a serious outage-producing storm

Houston getting 80 mph gusts is impressive for an 80 mph hurricane that came ashore nearly 85 miles away

Impressive amount of 80+ mph gusts recorded for an 80 mph storm in a semi remote part of the coast. Storm was clearly mixing winds to surface efficiently. As someone said earlier, an intensifying storm at landfall has an edge to it. I’m pretty impressed with the models on this one too. They nailed the last minute intensification. If it hadn’t ingested all that dry air after the Yucatán this would have been a major for Texas. Great tracking storm though and hopefully the damage isn’t too bad. Beryl will go down in history for its vicious impact on the grenadines and Jamaica, its ridiculous strength for June/early July, and tenacity in the Caribbean. Hopefully the US flooding is tempered, seeing some high rainfall totals beginning to show up in the Houston metro. Just a wild storm start to finish. Our ACE is now where it should be in September. I know one storm has little impact on how the season will go but man this feels ominous

Sure it’s been said a few times but thank god this thing didn’t have 12-18 more hours over water. It fixed its issues in a hurry last night

We ended at 1.67” yesterday with and additional 0.08” today for a monthly total of 1.80”

FINALLY! Dumping

This storm has at least set a foundation it can build from

Yea, already looks ahead of schedule

Starting to fire near center. Dry air could be the major inhibitor. Interesting forecast, shear weakens to non existent before landfall but current state leaves much to be desired. Storm had to start over. This current convective episode will be telling, if it can sustain and begin forming a cdo, sure maybe it can become a decent cane. It’s got to get its act together quickly. I was shocked, this thing looked very coherent coming off land yesterday in satellite, then recon showed the mlc had detached from the surface low and that sat image was a sham. Really highlights importance of recon.

Hottest day in history and I couldn’t have been more glad to be at the beach and not there!

Beryls overall structure does not look that bad for coming off land. At face value, I see nothing structure wise that wouldn’t support restrengthening. As for environment, it seems to be getting progressively better for the storm. It’s under the highest shear it will face and is holding its own. I’m changing my tune with this further north track being realized, I think this has MH potential. Never did I think it would look this good or end up this far north coming off the Yucatán. Texas needs to start prepping now

Beryl has exceeded an ACE value of 30

Color me skeptical

I feel like going to Jamaica and catching the inner core would’ve been better than that, but he’s an eye or bust guy. The decision to not play island roulette was surprising though. This is the same guy who built a living playing island roulette in the pacific where it is much more challenging to get to and also you have far limited resources once there. I think this was a huge miss. Other chasers nailed it, I guess if it’s tough Josh just isn’t going to go anymore?

https://x.com/icyclone/status/1809198187695231044?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

Usually when these tight core cyclones hit land while being sheared they dissipate quickly or their circulation spreads out and take a while to regenerate if they move back over water. However, the Yucatán is not exactly a hurricane killer. I will say when looking at forecasts from the NHC, the Jamaica-Caymans part was slightly too low for intensity (but consistently called for it to be near MH intensity near Jamaica) but the rest of their forecasts have been pretty spot on. They predicted a cat 1-2 Mexico LF from the start pretty much and looks like that’s what we got. Operationly they’ll keep this a cat 2 LF but I have my suspicions this was significantly weaker. Long story short- great job NHC

Per chasers on the ground in mainland Mexico this doesn’t sound like much of a hit at all. Haven’t seen anything yet approaching cat 2 from video or reports. I wonder if Cozumel took a harder hit while that NW eyewall was still intact, but sounds like this thing really fell apart coming in

Beryl wins. I’m done trying to forecast this storms intensity. It was on the ropes going by the caymans but has clearly reorganized this early afternoon. Unbelievable

Our ACE for the basin is now where it should be on August 27 with an active major hurricane ongoing…

Radar reveals a lack of banding besides the rapidly degrading eyewall. Coupled with pressure rises, I think this thing is unraveling at a quickening pace (finally)

For what it’s worth, HWRF (which frankly has handled Beryl very well) brings this into Jamaica on almost an identical path as its predecessor. It gets to a cat 1 by that time. Call me skeptical but it does seem to be showing some organization this morning

I’ll say this- I do not think Beryl has THAT much time as a major left. Its satellite presentation has degraded significantly and regardless of impact with Jamaica, its circulation will be disrupted. NHC discussion sounds like it’s on borrowed time at current intensity as is. We have been saying this for 24 hours but now, a marked weakening trend is imminent. This was such a mature and robust circulation with extremely high oceanic heat and instability that it was able to maintain but dry air will eventually slow that down and allow the shear to weaken it. Very resilient storm but it’s starting to show cracks this morning

The only negative if the core misses Jamaica is how does a stronger storm 24 hours from now (due to limited land interaction) affect us down the road. Today will be the most shear the storm experiences. Models had been seeing that + land interaction with Jamaica and interpreting serious weakening. If you marginalize the impact from Jamaica, we will have a stronger base-state storm before the Yucatán. Does this mean a more northerly track possibly extending time over the GOM? Lots to be resolved post-Jamaican impact today but something to take note of

Recon shows a steady state storm. Just wow for July. If this does indeed reintensify in the GOM we’re talking getting into September-like ACE numbers for the basin, from a single storm