NorthHillsWx

That’s a ready for liftoff look

So any debate about center is squashed. This thing looks good in a hurry

As we saw with Laura- though a lot of the coast there is susceptible to surge, most of that area isn’t built up besides small towns and hunting and fishing camps. Definitely a “good” spot to avoid a ton of human property loss. FYI I’ve fished in vermillion bay and outside of one point that is developed, there aren’t many structures period around the entire bay. Very cool spot and an awesome state park

Recon found another broad circulation SE of this. While this may take over as the overall center, there are some issues with the overall storm structure still as it’s organizing. If this center becomes distinct it could intensify at a more rapid pace as it’s firmly embedded under an apparent cdo. Wouldn’t jump the gun on this going bangers yet. Also this center appears to be moving west or west southwest seemingly within the broad center.

Brownsville radar actually shows a very strong circulation embedded out there. Not sure that’s the one NHC is tracking, looks like multiple centers in a gyre

For what it’s worth at range banding features appear to be increasingly evident on Brownsville radar

This is an absolutely insane look for early September but ventilation to the NE won’t be a problem lol

Convectively this system is impressive. Instability and moisture are not inhibiting factors for development today

These jet-enhanced storms are usually reserved for later in the season, especially in the GOM. But goes to show the anomalously strong trough over the east coast. Freeze warnings in Virginia tonight! As for the storm itself, I could see one of two outcomes. A strong half-a-cane due to positive trough interaction or a sheared storm that never gets its act together. Don’t think this one’s going to be eye candy regardless of final intensity. Really reminds me of Nicholas from a couple years ago. Another interesting thing is how quickly models turn this thing into a sprawling post-tropical system after landfall. It’s possible this storm could have some non-tropical features as it approaches the coast and interacts with said trough. Really going to be an interesting evolution and I think it’s going to be very much up in the air 24 hours from now. My gut tells me this maxes out 80-90 mph and we see our third gulf storm landfall of the exact same intensity this season. One thing to watch as this organizes is whether or not it can develop a small core or if it stays broad. Broad in this case where jet interactions will ultimately dictate final intensity will surely mean this struggles to reach H Intensity. A tight core will have a much better shot, despite the shear likely to inhibit it’s appearance

GFS is screaming a hurricane Nicholas redux with the BOC wave/trough interaction

All 5 of our areas of interest appear to have failed lol. Only chance is the BOC system currently going over the Yucatán. Even that looks to face a hostile upper level environment once over water though there is some support from models for a weak system.

I’d say the models are starting to wake up

Snow showing up on models near the Great Lakes is pretty indicative of lessening hurricane chances north of Florida. Major east coast trough looks well established for the next 2-3 weeks. I’m, once again, not saying the east coast won’t have a storm, but given that look the odds would seem to be slim

While tropical activity may (and will) pick up in the MDR towards mid month, models showing a very persistent signal for an east coast trough means an east coast landfall seems increasingly unlikely this season. The later you get into September and October the odds of a land falling east coast system really start to decline. Not saying it can’t happen, but odds definitely decrease regardless of overall Atlantic activity

3.21” 2-day total. Wetness reigns supreme in the yard once again

2.94” with additional rain falling this morning. Some places inside the beltline show 5-6” since yesterday on radar scope

I said September 2 was when I was pressing the bust button for the hyperactive season, and here we are.

2.20” and counting EDIT: pushing 3” now with steady moderate/heavy rain

1 inch and counting. Another heavy thunderstorm

If you’d told me my MTD for August would be 11.30” but it didn’t rain a drop from August 9-30 I’d probably have to doubt that total was achievable but that is what we got! We had 3 rain events (though Debby was multi-day) that resulted in 11.30”. Talk about maximizing the events given to you!

We’re over 2” EDIT: 2.41” storm total. Power still out

Dime sized. Maybe a few bigger. I’d grabbed a couple to tell if I hadn’t been too scared of getting struck. My street is without power, believe lighting hit the line in front of my house

This has gotta be one of the worst storms since I’ve lived here. Scary lightning, power out, big hail

Also- looks like Josh scored at least part of the eye. Given the layout of that coastline and variable forecast that’s a pretty impressive score for him

Though the storm degraded significantly before landfall, it still had a ferocious NE eyewall that unfortunately hit/is hitting a large swath of coastline. No doubt a large area seeing 100+ mph gusts.