NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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I may be wrong, but amped might be better here given the airmass north of the storm. Assuming amped doesn’t bring it inland, the more amped solutions seem to be pulling cold air in more efficiently vs the strung out solutions. All I’ll say about the southern jet and I’ve been saying this for a few days, this is a big dog pattern
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Icon really slowed down. That’s going to be our key here. It’s starting to seem simple how we get a big storm. As for track, small differences matter. ICON rides the coast, mixed bag for us. I don’t care about that at this point. Give me a slowed down, phased storm that can actually play with what looks like a primo airmass, worry about specifics later
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Every model has now thrown out at least 1 weenie solution for this system lol
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ICON a little different from earlier…. Huge storm
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@BornAgain13sitting pretty
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It hasn’t been very accurate of late with a couple recent systems but it has been very similar to EPS with this upcoming storm. Maybe a blind squirrel will find a nut this time?
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Y’all are underselling the AI model… that’s about as cold as look as we can get for the storm.
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6z Euro looked much improved up top and seemed to be setting up further south less amped and colder… Markedly different than 0z
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We’re at day 7 we couldn’t trust it if we were in the bullseye right now. Euro and UK are concerning, they don’t get it done with the cold. Thankfully eps and GEFS are colder than their ops. I’d hug ensembles at this range, also ensembles seem to be in fairly good agreement across suites
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Finished with 2.06” of rain. Temp up to a balmy 42.6
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EURO sucked but EPS looked like a significant storm. H5 on euro is completely different then everything else, it dumps the cold straight into Texas with a mega high centered near Oklahoma, hence we get a cutter. EURO AI was a major snowstorm. GFS still strung out.
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We never cracked 40. High of 39.4 and a low of 33.6 1.73” in the rain gauge for the event. We’ll see how much more we get through the morning
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I still feel pretty good. The overall setup looks great and the storm is still showing. 7-8 days out that’s where we want to be. Definitely want to see a slower more consolidated storm start to show but euro and Canadian are showing that and GFS took baby steps that direction this evening
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Agreed this is a beautiful setup. Especially in a Nina. This one will sting if we don’t capitalize because this is a major winter storm pattern and given the timing it is very likely our last chance this year.
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CMC is an epic sleet bomb for a lot on NC and then turns into a nor easter and big storm for MA Agreed. A strung out mess isn’t going to do it. Canadian and Euro are what we want. Gfs from last night developed the second wave, kind of like the Canadian is doing
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Agreed, but there were some positive changes as well. Slightly slower, stronger HP and better ridging north of us. Leads to a colder solution. It also hangs some energy back, which could be the way we get a storm here. Not an awesome run but not a total disaster like 18z
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GFS is much improved at H5 and much colder. Also seems like it brings back the second wave idea. So far a much better run up above
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Looks eerily like yesterdays storm
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Zelia has rapidly intensified into a beast. Pretty sparse area but there are a few towns that may get hit. Absolutely crazy RI -
This is honestly a pretty straightforward setup. Timing is everything. Models in remarkable agreement on overall look
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EURO is a major winter storm for most of NC and VA.
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BL Temps are not an issue on the euro. We’re in mid 20’s for most the storm. Honestly looks like a sleet bomb
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Would be ironic if all winter energy holding back too long killed us and then in the best pattern we get it ejects too fast for a proper phase and outruns the cold
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So far the GFS is kinda on an island timing wise. Let’s hope it trends towards other guidance. H5 isn’t much different it just gets the storm here before the cold
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Crush job for you
