NorthHillsWx

8-10 days out: pattern recognition. Pattern looks favorable for a winter storm threat. Box checked

“SIRI, define overrunning”

Prophetic

Charleston crusher

Same setup as last week except with a HP in correct spot

This setup actually gives Deep South areas like yours a shot if one of those Siberian 1045+ highs moves into the lakes and not straight down. Cold might overwhelm the storm track for most but it could get unusual areas into a storm chance

Correct. Should have elaborated

There are two opposite but very possible ways to lose and both are shown on models. 1) Suppression: our system is squashed by the extreme Arctic airmass and we miss out. I really don’t think this will happen. I think the cold airmass is likely over modeled and we will see some relaxing of the cold push as we get closer 2) Cold hung up west of apps. I know this sounds funny given the Euro extreme cold but we’ve seen this tune before and Canadian demonstrates it perfectly. There are some hints of a SER forming this weekend and we should be well acquainted with those impacts and setting the frontal zone up over the Carolina’s versus over or off the coast. You end up with an overrunning event for the Tennessee valley. I am much more worried bout this than suppression with the ridge orientation out west and lack of blocking over the North Atlantic even after this weekends rain storm There will be cold and moisture during the 19-26th period but there are clear cut ways to lose that are quite opposite of each other. Something in between is our path to victory.

EURO AI has a monster storm

Right where we want it

This place has changed since last year

There are few truths in life, but weenies weenying at D10 GFS runs and NAM crushing weenie snow hopes are two of them

This made my evening. I might have an affair with the GFS if this teasing continues. So damn hot right now

Beautiful storm on happy hour run. Parks the deformation band over the triangle for half a day think we’ll take that look lol

I mean that screams SE winter storm threat. If you had to draw a snow distribution for a significant SE storm it would be that footprint

Given January thus far and what is modeled for the remainder of the month, most on this board look to not only finish the month BN, but WAY BN in the temp department

If anyone has school kids you could go ahead and kiss their summer break goodbye

Exactly. It’s a very strong signal. Obviously we have no clue what the system will look like but I’m becoming confident pieces will be in play for a SE winter storm. This isn’t a model hiccup like we’re used to. Pretty much all suites are locked into that timeframe and we’re seeing winter storms pop on ops most runs. In other words, the pattern recognition is there

No bombs like that but there are a lot of members showing a storm during the period. That’s ok with me.

Yea. It’s nice to have had a storm and immediately have something to start to track without punting 2-3 weeks

Yep, a 1040 over SW PA is acceptable

Holy moly

EURO

12z GFS drops a 1054 into the upper Midwest…

Hard to ask for much more than what models are dishing out in the 8-10 day range. I am confident we will be tracking through the period. What a change from last couple winters.