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NorthHillsWx

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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. NorthHillsWx
    RAP is hours of light ZR. That is how you add up accrual
  2. NorthHillsWx
    Looking closer at the 12z CAMs even though a lot of moisture was going north, you can see the showers that develop in the dry slot and I think that’s what some here have been picking up on- if you’re in the wedge even though you might get the dry slot it likely doesn’t stop precipitating. Happens all the time with warm season wedges, supposed to be 70 but stuck at 50 and drizzle, light rain. Not convinced the moisture goes north of us but if it does it doesn’t mean it stops the precip
  3. NorthHillsWx
    Everyone’s burnt out. Storm that was supposed to start tonight is waiting till Sunday lol
  4. NorthHillsWx
    On my way to the new storm thread
  5. NorthHillsWx
    ICON is a massive hit across the board
  6. NorthHillsWx
    I’ve been in this boat since yesterday. The trend to lower QPF has been clear and the dry slot is a distinct possibility. Would be in line with how the rest of the year has played out
  7. NorthHillsWx
    Wonder is RAH is waiting to make sure there will be enough moisture to hit warning criteria east of current warning area?
  8. NorthHillsWx
    Here’s how it helps us- the front end thump is roughly 0.30” in Raleigh. As depicted, that is all sleet. So if we only get 0.30-0.40” the rest of the event assuming runoff and maybe plain rain at the end there just isn’t enough QPF for the high end ice totals we were talking about 0.50”+
  9. NorthHillsWx
    Huffman brought down his ice forecast. Cited less QPF and more sleet. Said further tweaks down may be needed and that areas might avoid a repeat of 2002
  10. NorthHillsWx
    We will see, repercussions are massive
  11. NorthHillsWx
    NAM just wants to keep precip north with this system
  12. NorthHillsWx
    To me the biggest question of the storm is now QPF. Is this in the 0.75” range (CAMs) which would no doubt cause issues but not anything like some of the 1.5-2” outputs we’d been seeing on the globals. There is a huge gap between those sets of guidance and that will dictate whether this is a memorable ice storm or just a sloppy mixed bag with moderate amounts of each precip type
  13. NorthHillsWx
    RAH mentions decreased QPF on overnight modeling for the NC piedmont in their recent AFD. Still going with 0.5-0.75” ZR
  14. NorthHillsWx
    Eric Webb just said he sees more failure modes for a major ice accumulation in piedmont areas than he did this morning: https://x.com/webberweather/status/2014544089119953034?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g
  15. NorthHillsWx
    Yea the ice area is likely shifting to climo regions. The wish casting mostly for Raleigh. Verbatim still an ice storm but worst of it is clearly heading to climo
  16. NorthHillsWx
    Mess but not what we thought… if we end up with an inch of sleet and 0.25” of ice after what we thought I mean that can only be described as a whiff on the forecast
  17. NorthHillsWx
    All of the upstate to part of the triangle is above freezing for the last wave of precip. Wow, this might be a forecast whiff
  18. NorthHillsWx
    GFS appears to have ticked north, not insignificantly
  19. NorthHillsWx
    GFS is a few ticks warmer at surface too
  20. NorthHillsWx
    If LP really rides up to Ohio I don’t care how strong the wedge is anyone not in the most CAD climo spots will get above freezing. This didn’t seem possible 12 hours ago. I’m not calling for bust yet but unless the trend stops we’re 1) going to be much warmer and 2) much less QPF. There might be light at the end of the tunnel
  21. NorthHillsWx
    I will say this, ICON and NAM ticked pretty far north with main moisture feed. If that shows up on other modeling the severity of this goes way way down. Freezing drizzle sucks but it doesn’t get you to damaging ice
  22. NorthHillsWx
    Yes, whatever ticks people are seeing on here it keeps getting warmer at surface on most modeling
  23. NorthHillsWx
    There is a path out of this if the main moisture feed misses us to the north and west. This has happened plenty of times with rainstorms
  24. NorthHillsWx
    You’d have to be on drugs to draw that map
  25. NorthHillsWx
    Get y’all’s storm plans in place triangle folks
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