NorthHillsWx

18z GFS is a SER nightmare

A trace means essentially at least one snowflake or sleet pellet was observed. That’s it, not measurable. You could have 100 TR events and it wouldn’t equate to measurable snow. So if those maps show 3 TR events for your backyard you still haven’t seen measurable. That being said, looking at those maps I’d say 50% of the state has seen 0.10” which technically is measurable. Someone can correct me, but I don’t think snow is considered measurable unless you have 0.10”, but that’s still a low bar. By no means is anyone thrilled with 0.10” but seeing 50% of the state with “measurable” snow by Christmas hasn’t happened since 2018 and with the BN temps it’s at least has been wintry.

25.7 currently which is also our low. There are a wide range of temps across NC this morning and we are running 4-5 degrees colder than RDU

Unfortunately the Aleutian ridge doesn’t really disappear it just retrogrades west moving the MW high axis just west enough for our -NAO, a fickle look with raging -PNA but at least some positivity. Given base state with pacific id be worried this would remain a progressive pattern and any cold shot/winter weather opportunity would be limited in duration and thus somewhat unlikely even if we end up cold around new years.

Some pretty positive changes on ensembles overnight regarding NAO tanking after Christmas just before new years.

30.5 after a pleasant high of 52

Southern is an OK forum, I post occasionally, but I cannot stand the look and feel of the site. It’s brutal to me. There are good posters there and a lot of folks who post in both but I too wish we could get some back who’ve left here. It’s quite the spectacle to go over there if Raleigh is getting screwed by a storm. If you think the Raleigh folks here are bad it’s even worse there. They have a lot of Charlotte posters too which I appreciate as someone who lived there for a long time after college

Until the pacific relaxes this looks like shut the blinds for winter weather for a long time. Models showing that extreme negative PNA look now with what they’re spitting out. Just a ripping flow too, drought areas likely to get much worse. Canada is still very cold and stays cold so there might be hope down the road. December likely to finish BN for most and most of NC has measurable snow already so no shutout. Might be time to throw your middle finger up at the pacific I’m sure it’ll pay attention and listen

The big pond at my farm in Franklin county has completely frozen over. It catches a lot of sunlight and doesn’t typically freeze solid but maybe once or twice a year. Low sun angle and no wind Monday morning likely contributed but this is the first time it’s frozen in December since 2018. Farm bottomed out at 22 last night and 12.6 Monday morning. High only reached 32 there yesterday. Pretty good start to winter regardless of the upcoming pattern reset

Looks pretty set that through around new years the east is going to be NN to AN and the only source of cold would be a sneaky high building in from New England (would get us cold enough so that people laugh at those calling for a torch but not actually provide winter weather shots). NAO now looks to stay slightly negative or neutral, so not much of a factor. PNA is going to stay deeply negative. I hope this is a reset and not a new base state for this winter. This would require an active STJ and with the pacific raging that isn’t going to happen. I get it with NAO going neutral to slightly negative and ridge building over the Midwest, so we’ll have back door fronts and wedge opportunities, but there isn’t any moisture. Dry and near normal through new years would be the best forecast call for the region. Probably a few AN days thrown in

Low of 25.0 actually occurred before midnight, then temps rose to 31.7 before dropping in the last hour to 29.9. Clouds and wind likely contributed to the temp spikes through the night as evidenced by RDU observations

34.7 was the high, low was 14.5 this morning. Already down to 26.0

As @wncsnow is saying, I see nothing muted about this “torch”. To me a week of above normal for the eastern half of the us is a torch. Maybe our temps get muted somewhat bc of a wedge but synoptically the cold is gone from the east for an extended period so this is the dreaded shut the blinds pattern until maybe the first week in January. I don’t see a hell ridge from the SER but if you want winter weather (everyone posting here) near normal isn’t going to cut it and there aren’t any threats as far as we can look out at this point. We’re punting 2+ weeks that’s a given.

That “lake effect” band over far east NC put down some serious snow near Fairfield. Pics are incredible looks like a couple inches… Don’t see that often!

Bottomed out at an impressive 14.5. Dewpoint got all the way down to -3! Currently 15.3

You’ve already had a good winter!

15.1 right now still dropping. About as cold as it can get here without snowpack. If you added snow cover to this airmass here you’d see spots in central NC approaching 0. We’re a whopping 39 degrees colder than this time yesterday

Yawn

Flipped over to a rain/snow/IP mix here. 39.6 EDIT: Finished with 0.10” of rain. 1.49” MTD total and looks like we’re gonna be stuck on that for awhile

Hit 54 at 3:30 but we are tanking now, down to 41

PNA has now trended to insane negative levels around Christmas. It stays negative into January. A +PNA and -NAO with MJO remaining favorable would feed families but alas, the pacific gives us the middle finger

Bottomed out at 27.0

Some sort of CAD wedge will develop and we’ll be stuck at 45 degrees and drizzle all day. Book it.

Already undershot forecast here. Down to 28.4

Snow capital of the sub forum