NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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Thread started, someone had to do it
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It is time. Lot of speed bumps and fail modes for this one, but there is a path to some level of victory for most on the forum. Good luck everyone, next 3 days will be fun tracking
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6z Euro was warmer and east. Temps are becoming a concerning trend outside the mountains (what’s new)
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We are NOWHERE near the stage to worry about it as our main issue but BL temps and daytime timing are concerned. BL temps have modified with each run across most guidance for a few cycles now. Thankfully upper levels seem really good for the setup
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I do think it ticks NW but those will be ticks on the EURO. Inside 3 days to see the euro which has been rock steady comparatively to other modeling just jump 200 miles west would be shocking m. I do think you see them meet in the middle somewhat
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I still think Central NC is in a great spot. The fact that hasn’t really changed in 24 hours is both concerning and exciting.
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That NAM run was delivered with the Jaws music
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6z icon was pretty solid for central NC but not western areas. Still huge improvement overall though
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GFS with a rather large jump back east. Euro remains about where it’s been. One models staying steady and the other is jumping around 100 miles each run.
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Model Roundup before the king’s turn: GFS: boom run, huge trends west and more precip. Eastern areas at risk of missing out UK: too far east but pretty nice looking storm CMC: finally has the storm, but too warm pretty much anywhere south of VA RGEM: has storm, too warm SE of 85 ICON: has storm but just too far east. Much improved from previous runs
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UK staying south makes me think Euro isn’t moving much tonight. GFS and more importantly GEFS trends are undeniable
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Concerning issues: 1) sharp cutoff of overrunning precip to east (someone would get burned). This happens a lot with overrunning precip. Then there’s usually a dry slot before surface low takes over 2) models being too aggressive with cold push and trend to slower Arctic front/cold chasing precip/wasted qpf 3) Is the NW trend going to stop? Still 3.5 days out would not be the first time show maps went from Wilmington to Knoxville especially in a Nina base state without blocking
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And far too warm south of 85
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We gotta be careful here- this could jackpot DC if this keeps up lol
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Agreed- we’ve gone from NW edge to SE edge. Euro being east still I think we’re in a good spot for now. Unlike the foothills and triad we aren’t asking for a NW trend but it to stay the same. Definitely concerned
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That 5-7” bullseye falls in about 6 hours too. My god that would be fun
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Need a cigarette after that run
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Hour 96 is an absolute crush job for Raleigh. Clown maps incoming. Helluva a run
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GFS gonna be west and warmer I believe
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0z RGEM is very warm east and south of 85
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To me, everything seems to be honing in on central and eastern parts of the Carolina’s
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And it works 90% of the time!
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What I would do for a .75-1” QPF bomb one of these days like we used to get even if some was wasted on mix or low ratios. All these NS systems you’re fighting for two tenths of an inch of QPF for victory, though ratios typically are better
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That storm but it lasting 2-3 more hours would make me happy for the rest of the season
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The first rule of weather club: do not dissect hour 84 NAM. The second rule of weather club: do not dissect hour 84 NAM
