NorthHillsWx

UK staying south makes me think Euro isn’t moving much tonight. GFS and more importantly GEFS trends are undeniable

Concerning issues: 1) sharp cutoff of overrunning precip to east (someone would get burned). This happens a lot with overrunning precip. Then there’s usually a dry slot before surface low takes over 2) models being too aggressive with cold push and trend to slower Arctic front/cold chasing precip/wasted qpf 3) Is the NW trend going to stop? Still 3.5 days out would not be the first time show maps went from Wilmington to Knoxville especially in a Nina base state without blocking

And far too warm south of 85

We gotta be careful here- this could jackpot DC if this keeps up lol

Agreed- we’ve gone from NW edge to SE edge. Euro being east still I think we’re in a good spot for now. Unlike the foothills and triad we aren’t asking for a NW trend but it to stay the same. Definitely concerned

That 5-7” bullseye falls in about 6 hours too. My god that would be fun

Need a cigarette after that run

Hour 96 is an absolute crush job for Raleigh. Clown maps incoming. Helluva a run

GFS gonna be west and warmer I believe

0z RGEM is very warm east and south of 85

To me, everything seems to be honing in on central and eastern parts of the Carolina’s

And it works 90% of the time!

What I would do for a .75-1” QPF bomb one of these days like we used to get even if some was wasted on mix or low ratios. All these NS systems you’re fighting for two tenths of an inch of QPF for victory, though ratios typically are better

That storm but it lasting 2-3 more hours would make me happy for the rest of the season

The first rule of weather club: do not dissect hour 84 NAM. The second rule of weather club: do not dissect hour 84 NAM

I think we can wait until tomorrow to start a storm thread. Until last night there really wasn’t much consensus on there even being a storm would like it to remain on models for a full day before jumping into a thread personally. There isn’t really anything else going on besides in the mountain forum so nothing would be confused with this discussion at this time

Central/East NC and SC are in a really good spot at this juncture

UK was terrible. EURO was not great but it was mostly due to the energy being less consolidated than a bad trend with regards to placement, etc. think as someone else stated we’ve reached the stage of models jumping around. We’re still 4 days out our storms are never nailed down at this range. Watch those two closely we don’t want to separate into GFS vs the world

Alright west trend was great everyone gets a storm but it can kindly stop now that we’re in the bullseye lol

It’s the extreme range NAM but it was very similar to the 6z Euro. Looked like it was about to go boom if it went out 6 more hours.

If Raleigh gets a 6” storm this year I promise we’ll send everything else your way the rest of the the season

This checks out. Our local Mets in Triangle downplay every storm until it starts snowing (smart) but even they talk about snow droughts and the long one we ended last year as being far from the norm. Acting like Charlotte and Asheville are Columbia South Carolina doesn’t make it correct from a climo standpoint

6z Euro ticked up significantly but Is still a coastal hit, mostly. I think we can call this a trend without a doubt at this point

RAH pretty aggressive for that office: 00z GFS and ECMWF depict a more vigorous shortwave that swings across the Southeast US and Carolinas on Sunday, with a surface cyclone that develops off the coast of the Carolinas and moves NE. With very cold temperatures aloft by this point (and Sunday`s surface temperatures staying in the 30s at least based on the latest raw guidance), any precipitation that falls over central NC is likely to be snow, but the question is how much precipitation (if any) we actually receive. The GFS is sharper with the trough aloft compared to the ECMWF, resulting in snow across a larger portion of the area compared to the ECMWF which is more focused in the east. Regardless, considering nearly half of ECMWF ensembles and over half of GFS ensembles depict accumulating snow across the area, it bears watching. WPC QPF is light at this time but could increase if models converge on a surface low track closer to the coast.

EPS uptick at 6z was pretty drastic! Very good look this morning