NorthHillsWx

I said a long shot lol

The late week system seems like it would have a chance to produce some snow if it’s close enough to get moisture back. Models are reinforcing the cold and with the new idea of an offshore LP development I don’t see why that wouldn’t be snow if we can get the moisture. Still a long shot but it has previously looked more like a rain event

As for a full model miss, the Canadian gets the crown. It did trend towards reality yesterday but that’s why you never hug the Canadian. Surprisingly, EURO and EPS gets second place for junk model of this storm. While everything else was trending away it bought into the storm. Now it’s trending back to reality. UK, GFS, and… ICON all seem to have had the correct idea at the furthest range.

lol New Orleans likely to get more snow than last 3 RDU winters combined

That’s beautiful. Literally the entire forum gets accumulating snow. Maybe we’ll trend that way

Need the 12z euro to be good or cliff diving will commence

Since 0z it’s been nonstop bummer vibes

The thread was started and this thing evaporated. GEFS looks awful for everyone

NAM is very amped for what it’s worth (very little)

So we gained the Euro and lost the GFS. That’s a trade I’m willing to make

I knew the Euro run was good as soon as I logged on and saw the thread was hot at 1:30

I actually think EPS trended much better, but what do I know

Noise. Huge improvement overall since last night

EURO worlds better than 0z

Brick tool work off for 10 days after he sniffed this storm out at hour 320 a week ago

Hey, the longggg range NAM looks more like the Canadian than the EURO. We’re good y’all

I was living in Greenville for that one. Remember watching the sleet and thinking it would switch for hours. It finally did but we wasted 1/2 the storm on sleet. Think we got 4-5” but way less than the 8-10” forecast. Still a great storm and a great winter that way.

If Raleigh got 0.8” of precip with those temps…. happy happy happy

And on their forum you’d think they were in Raleigh’s snow drought… They are pretty much guaranteed to finish the winter above their climo and with below average temps but if they don’t get a once in 50 year storm it’s a season fail

We undershot the forecast pretty significantly here. Low of 26.7. Pretty long streak of below freezing nights. This has been impressive cold wall to wall through January so far

I know right?!?! That’s kind of giving me hope bc the two suites that at some point have shown snowless solutions have also been the most inconsistent.

GFS is a couple hundred miles NW with the LP than where it was at 18z yesterday

If the Canadian scores a coup here we will need to remember that for future tracking when we have a real Arctic airmass pressing like this one. It feels like that model always wants to create an Arctic airmass out of whatever cold is available and that causes it to always be a cold outlier. Maybe actually working with an Arctic airmass like this one it verifies better. Of all guidance it has by far been the most consistent here. Definitely an interesting development especially after seeing the GFS trend towards it after going far away the last two days.

I’ll say this, if I was in the bullseye of snow RN with the NW trends on GFS and to an extent Euro at this range, I’d be pretty nervous. Only thing giving me pause for real hope is EPS doesn’t have that many solutions more NW, making it feel like the NW trend might be limited here. GFS, Canadian, and UK isn’t a terrible camp to be in but EPS needs to hop on board or it kinda feels like fools gold. Thankfully there’s still time. Today and tomorrow will be important to see actual trends develop. Model variance isn’t even close to where it was this time yesterday so models are definitely coming into alignment on the general idea of the storm

This is an outside the coast comment. If you’re on the coast you have to feel great at this point