NorthHillsWx

EURO looks great so far

18z GFS gonna be out before the 12z EURO

All that for my 1.9” of snow

I want to congratulate the SE Forum on doing the impossible: we are 130 pages deep on the 2025 mid-long range thread. The 2024 mid to long range thread only made it to 109 pages. We have successfully blown past all of last year and we did it in early February

Take my money. I’ll buy that look at this range every day and twice on Sunday

Yes, everything has shown a storm for central NC from 0z last night till the 12z runs today. Only the GFS has trended warmer. EURO issue has been it’s a late bloomer but has had a good track for us. We’ve seen big hits from the EURO, GFS, CMC in the last 3 cycles and decent hit from the ICON with a good look from the UK at range. Good spot to be in at this range

Oh gotcha

EURO is a major snowstorm for central/eastern NC and SE VA. Someone was able to get some panels in the MA forum

Stuck under 40 degrees for two full days with nearly 2” of liquid and all of about 10 min of a wintry mix to show for it. We’ll get our revenge next week when we get 15” of snow though

Stuck at 38.8. Thought we would’ve made it into the 40’s when the rain stopped but it’s been stuck here for an hour

Weenie traffic

So far all 12z guidance has a storm and plentiful cold air available

At a minimum I’m thinking I’ll have good skiing in Virginia next weekend!!! Possibly fresh snow with serious cold. Could possibly have hit the timing jackpot for an east coast family ski trip

^^^This. Overall looks at H5 are very similar. Oz GFS was much slower and allowed 1030+ heights to build into Virginia pre-storm which brought in the cold air before the storm. Very much like the Canadian. There isn’t that much difference in setup.

CMC is almost a carbon copy of 0z GFS lol

Oh Canada!!!!

Kinda fizzles but it’s a nice gulf low track with snow in the northern half of NC and ice south into South Carolina. Might be wrapping up some too as it gets into Atlantic. Definitely close

ICON looks like it’s going to be a big storm

As miserable as it is, this is the perfect drought busting rain. Not too heavy and steady. We’re at 1.25” and counting

Euro insists on a late bloomer. 6z GFS was suppressed with the main wave (snow for coast) and too warm on the initial wave, but still has the storm.

We continued dropping through the night. Currently 33.6 with 1.14” of rain and absolutely pouring

True but for D8, that’s very good agreement. And it’s way south from its 12z run… like way south

GFS keeps central NC below freezing from 12z on the 19th through 18z on the 23rd.

Always fear the NW trend but as depicted the high in the Midwest could not be better positioned and strengthening heights 1030+ north of us with a mid level flow that’s more sw/ne oriented, the chance this cuts would be minimal. That’s textbook cold air transport and really a classic miller A look. We need to watch the trend on model runs to keep building heights north of us to keep northerly progression limited. But that’s a textbook Carolina’s snowstorm setup. This pattern is SCREAMING a storm and now we can see the potential. Cold air transport always the #1 thing to look for and oh baby is it there

CMC with a very similar look…