NorthHillsWx

I've said it before, I'll say it again: Rarely do nighttime (Especially 9PM-12AM) events live up to hype. I think Triad through western VA will have a nasty/severe squall line but RARELY do these things hold together from a severe perspective east of that much after sundown. I expect no different today, despite the enhanced risk area.

Looks "spooky" dry from Triangle east through the end of all model runs. Quite the difference from the western half of the Carolinas to the eastern side in terms of modeled precip

I think we may have a chance at our first freeze Monday morning. Given a favorable HP placement, light winds, and low DP this is a VERY favorable setup for maximum radiational cooling. Most models over-do nighttime temps at this range in these setups as well. This wouldn't be much behind our long terms average first freeze, either. Would be interesting to get a freeze before a frost if that came to fruition!

Wow, the storm this weekend has really trended west, towards the Euro solution, on the GFS from earlier runs this week. What looked like a washout may end up no rain at all in central NC. It does however stall out the boundary and re-form precipitation over the area early next week. Definitely trending towards an amped low in the MS valley for the system this weekend though

Saw this exact scenario on the 3k Nam for tomorrow, discrete cells then an organized line. First potential severe threat in a while.

Looking at overnight and morning modeling, the potential system in the gulf, regardless of development, looks like it could bring a widespread beneficial rain to the area. Outside of a few areas east of the Triangle, this has been an underwhelming tropical rainfall season, obviously, and these systems are the ones we rely on during the dry summer months so if we can get this thing in the region I suspect some areas can make a good dent in recent rainfall deficits

Haha if this was a winter storm this map would be right where you'd want it the triad!

Still no drought relief on the 12z GFS but man is that a stout trough digging in at the end of the run! Would be our first chance at frost in some areas if taken verbatim...

Like a broken record, SE ridging keeps the storm track above us with coastal development too far offshore to get significant rain into the lee of the Apps. This has the markings of a significant drought for much of the Southeast. The areas of severe drought have continued to expand. With no significant change in sight, I would look for that to continue.

Bring on the drought of 2019... Hopefully the change to cooler includes an active coastal pattern for a soaking rain. Rain associated with frontal passages is not going to cut it. Need soaking-type rains now.

Hopefully a wet pattern starts soon. Not seeing much hope on the models. Keep checking back hoping for a change. Only good news is timing for duck season. Going into duck season it's going to be very little water (opposite of last year). Birds are going to have fewer places to go so hopefully my farm which has great beaver swamps that always hold water will have more birds as they will be less spread out and more prone to use continual sources of water, Looking at the positive of this!

I'm surprised we're even that close to average in central NC. We did receive 1.5" from the hurricane but that feels like a century ago. Coupled with the high heat, we're in mid-summer form in terms of the yard browning out

One word sums up the upcoming and recent weather pattern quite nicely: Dry

Purely speculation but this storm feels like a Matthew track to me. I've been saying that since the first member started advertising the northward bend yesterday morning. If it slows down, it is going north. That's just what these things do. And I'm supposed to be in Nags Head all week so I KNOW its coming north haha

I hear ya! I had been in the same boat for awhile until yesterday saw one storm blow up right over my house and sit, dropping an inch of much, much needed rain, 30-35 mph gusts, and close ctg lightning. Had a good storm a week ago but not as much rain. Can't wait for the, gasp, 70's tomorrow! Hope to see a blossoming radar shortly and maybe a cool, light, drizzly rain type of day tomorrow

I haven't been enthused with this setup nearly as much as I was yesterday's. I thought the forecast yesterday way underdid the effect of heating and the MCAPE values were high. Same today but the forcing associated with the front arrives late and very rarely this time of year do nighttime storms reach severe limits, unless you get an MLS situation which this is not. Though dynamics appear most favorable in SE VA and NE NC and this lines up with high CAPE values in prime heating hours and highest shear values in this area as well, I expect a line of storms to progress from NW-SE through midnight. Isolated wind damage for sure but I doubt we see much outside the highlighted areas. That might be what the 3K nam is seeing in its latest run, the line falls apart once peak heating hours wane (though did you see the 6z? That had a significant line. I took that with a grain of salt given other modelling). Should be some good rains. We got an inch yesterday from the storms that developed after that awesome gravity wave cloud (I think that's what it was) moved through.

I'm surprised no one mentioned the severe weather from Monday. Drove through the Southwestern side of Raleigh (Centennial Campus Area) and there was a good amount of tree damage (Leaves, branches, and full trees blown down). Seemed like there were several storms of this magnitude around that afternoon so I'd expect similar damage. We had nearly 20k outages that afternoon too and many of our crews worked into the night to get power back on.

Most short-range modelling seems to have backed off on storm chances today from Triangle south. Still seems the storms that do fire will have the potential to be strong, especially with the extreme heat today. We will have to watch the 3-5:00 timeframe closely today to see where storms do fire on the southern outflow from the convection moving through VA and also where localized enhancement takes place. Me thinks a few good storms are possible, though widespread aerial coverage seems lackluster

One thing I’ve loved tracking the last few days is the pattern of these afternoon storms. With very weak steering currents they don’t really move so much as sit, rain out, then re-develop in a general direction on their own outflow boundary. Very few organized clusters but a ton of outflow boundaries makes for a busy radar but VERY inconsistent rain and the appearance of “skipping” over some places. Looks to be the case Thursday but I’ve noticed some models (gfs especially) seem to be advertising some increased coverage.