NorthHillsWx

12z ensemble trends were in our favor for the long-term. Jan 7-8 should be watched but I just don’t think there’s enough of a cold source for snows outside the mountains, regardless of track. We want the trends 12z took from a synoptic perspective however for the longer range. Suppress the CPAC high and push everything further east. With an active STJ we will score eventually as long as there is a cold source. Doesn’t need to be earth shattering cold either

The signal for the Jan 7-8 storm is very high however at this point it seems to be a foothills/mountains deal. Beyond that, I am growing very concerned with the ensemble look of building in a ridge in the CPAC. While I think a warmup mid month seemed somewhat likely, it never really gets cold beforehand and now I am increasingly concerned about how long it will take to break that feature down. That was a semi permanent feature last season and we know how that turned out. Hopefully we see ensembles weaken that ridge and allow cold air progression east of the central states or we will be banking on fabulous February. This was the ONE thing I was hoping to avoid this year and hopefully it is transient but we all know those cpac ridges can be tough to dislodge and once established we are usually in a can kicking regime

GFS has rain up to the Hudson Bay on January 10

Minus that GLL

1.13” here

There is just enough cold air around. We don’t want a massive arctic surge in this pattern as that will lead to a suppressed storm track. With the active STJ and NAO trending solidly negative, we are in business from two of the better players on the field in a Nino cycle. The pac could use some work and models are showing some pesky GLLs but I am extremely excited about the Jan 6-10 period and beyond.

The long range looks very, very good. That is all

Man watching the HP move in on the GFS for the fantasy storm is a thing of CAD beauty. 1030 just perfectly placed and timed correctly. I’m positive it happens exactly as depicted in reality!

The 12z GFS look for the 8-10th would lock the Carolina’s up for 5 days if that happened. Heavy front and backside snow sandwiched around a massive IP and Ice storm. That would be a glacier. Extreme Cold behind it too. Yes please!!! This weenie would be satisfied for the season

This period has my full attention

Finally a long range op run with multiple winter weather chances. This aligns perfectly with the ensembles and their well-advertised pattern flip going into the first week of Jan. I already like this more than the last few years where we started kicking the can chasing day 15 pattern changes 7x a week at this point. Nice seeing a favorable pattern in peak climo seemingly becoming a reality. Even if this window doesn’t produce the LR looks extremely good and I think we will have a couple shots before mid month. That doesn’t mean anyone outside of the mountains scores, but we will have opportunities to track

GEFS and GEPS both look really good for the first week of January. This hasn’t been a can kick either.

Surprised to see a wintry mix when I let the dog out

2.90” storm total here. 6.94” for the week including last weekends storm. That’s a hell of a way to kill the drought

High wind warning now

50-60 mph ground verified gusts showing up in southern piedmont

Moments later: confirmed tornado in Myrtle beach moving NE. Debris signature clear on radar

That area Myrtle Beach-Wilmington needs to be vigilant for tornadoes with this band moving through. Lots of areas showing broad rotation and there’s a lot of energy with that band

That was a really good storm. Everything stuck and was in mid 20’s and snowing. Stayed cold afterwards. That’s the only bright spot since December 2018 and it was just 3-4” in my area

This weekends storm has trended way east. Probably saves inland areas from worst winds and severe threat

One positive trend is this thing has really sped up. What was looking like a long duration event stretching from Sunday to Tuesday is now mostly just Sunday afternoon. Rainfall totals have come down accordingly. I know everyone needs the rain but 3-4” in a short time after last weeks rain would probably cause flash flooding

This is looking like a significant weather event. I’d expect a serious squall line in Florida too

At least we don’t have to worry about “what if there was cold air”

Yea I guess to broaden my point: this isn’t even going to produce snow in New England with a perfect track in mid December. For us it’s not shocking but the lack of snow up north with a storm track passing over the “benchmark” is highly, highly anomalous for mid December

Early next week’s Miller A with a perfect storm track and absolutely no cold air is going to sting. That being said, if that track continues this year eventually we will score