NorthHillsWx

GFS depicts a very small system north of Cuba

NHC explicitly mentioned significant degradation of the storm prior to LF on their discussion, obviously if it goes west of the peninsula.

It’s become strange talking about a storm weakening into a northern gulf landfall after the last few years. This used to be the expectation

HMON said hold my beer. Takes this from a peak of 140+ kts down to a LF of 35 kts in the 36 hours before landfall. Don’t think I’ve ever seen such model consensus for RI followed by rapid weakening over the northern gulf. That being said, if this peaks 120+ kts it is going to be a gigantic threat, regardless what the models are showing in terms of final LF intensity. My gut says this pulls east and hits the peninsula. The Euro has been relatively steadfast

HWRF has the most rapid pre landfall weakening I have ever seen modeled, taking it from 120kts down to 55kts in the 24 hours before landfall.

Not based on this recon run

Pretty much all guidance has this peaking about the latitude of Ft meyers. A LF north of there would likely be a weakling storm while somewhere near there would likely be a storm near peak intensity

Looking like this is trending slower and further west. NHC inching track in this direction.

The basin is dead…

Y’all the eastern side of this storm is no joke per recon and observations from Bermuda! Wow

This may be the benchmark storm for many coastal areas across a wide stretch of the region. This is not hyperbole either, this thing is a beast and has unanimous support to be an incredible cyclone at landfall. Glad Josh chose to chase this one, I think this will be a historic event

Eerily similar to forecast tracks and intensity for Charley at about this range. At this time yesterday, I did not expect a TD by morning, some were questioning why this was a cherry. Well, this is what happens when a wave already has a defined surface circulation and shear decreases just a little. I am not sure about intensity yet. I think a moderate hurricane (cat 1-2) is likely for SW Florida. There are a lot of negative factors for intensity: dry west flow/shear, land interaction, length of time over water after Cuba. However the extreme SE GOM and NW Caribbean look extremely conducive for strengthening especially with a developing upper level anticyclone as this passes Jamaica. Track guidance certainly seems to be nearing a much more condensed consensus for LF on the SW Florida peninsula. Definitely Tampa’s first significant threat since Charley

I hope Atlantic Canada is treating this appropriately. This is going to be one of their biggest tropical impacts.

Agree. It’s becoming clear the environment behind the trough will be quite hostile in the northern GOM. Anything “left behind” would likely be weakening, possibly significantly, on approach. Something to watch once we get a defined system

Ummm I don’t believe that. We maxed out at 93.6. There is not way RDU was almost 5 degrees hotter than here! Just picked up 0.06” from a quick but heavy shower. This was our first rain in 10 days.

I’d say GFS is on an island at this point. From what I’m seeing: 1) Western track would be slower moving and likely a weaker system at landfall 2) eastern track crosses big part of Cuba and doesn’t have much time to strengthen before hitting Florida, but is a strengthening system on approach and then opens the door for east coast action 3) something between these 2 would probably yield the strongest landfall impact further up the Florida peninsula and would then be a potential serious inland flooding threat with trough interaction and overrunning. Fun times ahead tracking. These are all very presumptuous based on model runs without an actual system but hey, these 3 scenarios look plausible depending on which one the system takes

Euro puts the entire east coast on watch… interesting

Fiona is a beautiful storm this afternoon. This is going to be a big event for Atlantic Canada

The convection is incredibly sheared as expected but the spin of the wave is obvious. The strong ones always seem to have the spin even when they are weak, as 98L is. Once shear subsides this should take off

Yea in recent images Fiona looks much more symmetric and the eye has warmed and cleared out again. Beautiful storm

Would be a fun time on the board if this misses the trough connection and sits in the middle of the gulf for 3 extra days rotting from a 4 to a 1 or 2 before landfall

Looking long term, we may only have one or two rain chances through the end of the month. Barring any possible tropical activity, what you have now may be very close to what you end with for the month in the rain department. What a weird September

If you want a strong landfall you want this to get pulled up ahead of the trough and moving briskly in a NE direction into landfall so it’s going with the shear vector. You also don’t want a system going into the big bend area of Florida where there is extensive shelf water. A Charley like track would yield your strongest LF, in the situation as modeled. If this gets left behind the trough, it will be encircled in dry stable air, moving slower over shelf waters, and subject to NW shear. That’s why the GFS is showing rapid weakening. It is FAR too early to discuss these specifics. The storm isn’t even formed yet and the trough interaction is long range. My gut says whatever forms will end up further east, maybe Euro type track, as that has been the trend this year for models to go too far west then correct east, especially with unusually low heights on the east coast. Let’s monitor cyclone formation before nitpicking intensity at long range. Happy tracking.

Fiona looking a bit ragged at the moment. Believe our strengthening trend has ended

I think most on the forum thought 98L was destined to be Gaston… even after Gaston had been named