NorthHillsWx

@Grayman@TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Hows the water in here y’all? I’m back

Euro says I’ll serve you a dish of cold rain with a side of colder rain

What stinks even more about this setup and why we’ve had some models showing potential is that the cold air IS there we just have no mechanism to get it down in time east of the mountains. On modeling it’s showing temps as low as the -20’s in parts of the northeast the day the storm system will be impacting us. Just imagine if we had a stronger low or a HP to tap some into of that… Just makes this setup that much more frustrating but also why so many have said from the start timing is everything here. We look like we’re getting the storm track we want Just need to find some mechanism to time it with the cold, something we’ve seen in some runs. Ensembles are not on our side either, showing the chance of that happening is still an outlier, but it cannot be dismissed yet. I’ll take a weak slider vs an amped system in this pattern anyday though bc it means we’re still in the game and not dealing with another cutter which we’d certainly get if this storm consolidated further west like most modeling was hinting at a few days ago. Think it was yesterday the Canadian too some areas from ice to 70’s in 24 hours

CMC is a real kick in the groin. Perfect track, ample moisture, not enough cold push. Mid 30’s and rain

Yep. And that makes the most sense in this pattern. CMC and Euro backing the energy in the SW and holding it into a consolidated system never made sense to me. These progressive slider systems are a pain to forecast and unless you get some last minute coastal development, are usually gone before they ever really arrived. We have scored on these occasionally, I think our only snow in 2020-21 winter came from a similar mode

Well 12z GFS technically didn’t kill the threat but…

Looking like a little, dare I say, consensus forming on the models inside 7 days for a wintry event nearby? Obviously it’s trended a little north but this is as close as we’ve been this year to a teachable event so I guess we’ll take what we can get. At least it seems to be trending away from a cutter. Need TPV displacement just a little to the south for more of the forum to get in but this looks like the type of moderate event that could work in this sh*t pattern

If the Carolina’s and southern Va luck into a widespread 4-8” snowstorm in this terrible year followed by a couple days of cold… Happy hour for both the model and myself

I’ll cash out with the 18z GFS lol

If we’re throwing the JMA out on the forum, we’ve already lost…

0.64” storm total yesterday

The storm cutting on the CMC is a very strange evolution. The energy hangs up in the Texas/Louisiana area for a couple of days before being pulled almost due north by a vort digging from the Pac NW. It seems unlikely to me that energy stays put like that. This looks like a strung out slider orientation to me with multiple waves riding the boundary. That’s just how I interpret that. Euro and CMC frequently tend to hold energy back longer than reality too so i really don’t think the CMC solution will pan out in that manner. But it is relatively consistent, much more so than the GFS

That Euro solution would be an epic sleet storm for many. Too much of a thread the needle solution at range to take with much more than a grain of salt. If we pull something out of this pattern that’s the only way it’ll happen though. Very, very short window

We all know who will win… SER is undefeated this year. Sucks having a good PAC (what I’ve blamed most of our most recent failures on) but it doesn’t matter when there’s no way to get cold south of Montreal

18z is an absolute clinic on how to flex the SER

18z GFS says SER wins out and no one is even close to frozen/freezing precip lol. Absolute worst pattern to be in, cold tempting us nearby but a SER just making sure we get no legitimate threats so we end up with rain after rain

Euro gets cold but *extremely* transient.

With the way it’s been and storms continuing to cut we end up with a lot of rain but nowhere near the modeled amounts just a lot of 0.5” - 1” rains frequently enough to keep everything soaked but no flooding, thankfully. Mountains obviously are seeing more but these giant modeled amounts east of there you can usually cut 3/4 out to get the actual rainfall totals with systems that end up west of the mountains

This is such a sh*t show pattern it’s not even funny

18z GFS says lights out for the piedmont with back to back ice storms

February 1-5 is our window for wintry weather in the southeast. Models have been extremely volatile but for the most part they are showing some love during this period, though each model differs significantly on which wave/timeframe that is. My take is that there is potential and we are just now getting into the 7-day window where models should begin to hone in a bit more on the evolution of smaller scale factors that will dictate our final outcome. SER will not be denied but the PAC is finally favorable and the active pattern persists. We need an overrunning scenario to score imo. Anything too amped is going to end up west of the Apps and I just don’t think we have the cold air supply with +NAO for a Miller B with freezing/frozen precipitation to work out east of the mountains. I was hoping for a full scale flip to cold with the pattern change but unfortunately it looks like it’s just going to be a 5-6 day window then a big warmup again. We can score during this timeframe, however, and there is potential showing up on all modeling with huge variance of how it plays out. Next 2 days will be critical as we sort out a hectic wave pattern in the 7-12 day timeframe

Holy hell a 1050 mb HP sitting over WV

GFS has some of the coldest air I’ve ever seen modeled for my area around February 5

First week of February alternating between 70 degree torches and snow and ice storms depending on which model and run you want to look at. Should be interesting at least

Picked up 1.11” of rain yesterday and into this morning complete with some pretty good lightning and thunder