NorthHillsWx

Cat 4. 130 mph

I hate to say it but this feels like watching the birth of the next great Gulf hurricane

We have not had that kind of luck in my parts. Another scorcher yesterday, 97.4

A high ceiling means very little in the grand scheme of things and that is totally off the assumption this gets a coherent core together about the time it enters the gulf. Without engaging in hyperbole, this system needs to be watched with extreme caution because the ingredients are present for a strong hurricane to impact the gulf coast without the usual week-long buildup

Once this gets going I don’t really see a major hindrance to strengthening other than land. The shear vector is favorable, it’s going over nuclear fuel in the gulf, and it might get a bit of an boost from the upper level jet offering optimal ventilation. Dry air in western gulf could be an issue but if this wraps up quick these Caribbean storms have shown to be less susceptible to that unless hit with NW shear. I think the next 24-36 hours tell the tale of how strong this will get as it is entirely dependent on how fast it can ramp up before landfall

Since Michael, I will never take a storm forming like this lightly regardless of initial model intensity. I actually think this has a higher ceiling than what models are showing. This isn’t that dissimilar situation from what led to Michael doing what it did. If this consolidates in the NW Caribbean before entering the Gulf, watch out

Franklin got shredded last night wow!!!

This system developing in NW Caribbean feels like something you’d see spin up in October, not August. The Atlantic has a late season feel to it at the moment

GEFS tends to keep the eastern trough into the beginning of September while EPS tends to weaken it with a turn to SE ridging to start the month. These two divergent solutions offer extremely different outlooks towards the prospect of a east coast landfall and with an extremely active basin (from a wave standpoint) this needs to be watched as to which solution comes to fruition. Does the GEFS solution of keeping a trough continue to offer a barrier to storms like Franklin or does the trough breakdown and offer a window for storms to move further west and threaten the EC? Will need to be watched for trends over the coming days. My thoughts are leaning towards a window of opportunity during the September 3-10 timeframe for an east coast threat. I still think homegrown or gulf systems are the mode of getting a storm to threaten the US but that is looking like a window for something to slip through from the east

Hispaniola used to be shredzilla for storms but recently they’ve become immune to it. Franklins circulation looks better defined now than at any point before land interaction

What an amazing day! High of just short of 85 with low humidity and NE wind!!!

Surfers dream week incoming

Not the most important thing to focus on at this point in the season, but several runs of the GFS already bring the 540 line down into eastern Canada and have shown snow pretty far south. Hopefully a harbinger of an early end to the season with El Niño taking over

There’s a growing chance Franklin becomes the first MH of the season

We can share our heat! -your neighbors just to the east 95.3 yesterday. Looking forward to a reprieve today

Lol at the HFAI (?) intensity forecast this morning. Just your run of the mill 175 knot peak

I think this storm was stronger at LF than NHC had it. There were 65-70 kt velocities at LF from Corpus Christi south and several observations above 60 kts. Was interesting to watch it wrap up in the final hour. Obviously overall the impacts for the storm are incredibly beneficial from a rainfall standpoint. Wish Houston area and north had been able to get into the rains

Id bank on it. Current LLC seems to be moving west and will probably die under the shear (it’s already weak at best). With the ongoing convective flare ups east I would be shocked if a new center didn’t form under them at some point. This system shows just how hostile the environment is, however

Honestly a system cutting NE from the carribbean is highly unusual in August. Seems El Niño-y to me

Not sure if it’s verifying on the ground but that intense band moving onshore has a lot of velocities exceeding 50 kts

Would’ve been a cane if it had 10 more hours over water

Probably benefitting from frictional convergence but banding has markedly improved in the last hour and the center is starting to get some strong storms wrapping around it with a nice feeder band to the east that should help to keep the storm development around the center. The center and I’m assuming wind field are likely contracting as well based off radar data. Velocities are also pretty high with several 50-55kt velocities showing up. I still think this jumps up to the 50-60kt range before landfall.

Franklin may have opened up into a trough overnight. Really hard to find any westerly wind component on visible this morning and the convection is extremely ragged

Does look to be getting its act together now

Last word on Hilary as the coverage and hyperbole really struck a nerve with me: it is now the 9th story on CNN.COM and isn’t even on FoxNews homepage the day after a “catastrophic event”. Maybe a rainstorm hitting a place that’s needed it the most isn’t such a bad thing? I get that there was flooding and there are probably some impressive videos at washes (which flood impressively after an isolated storm). I also get some places broke all time rainfall records. However, even in a desert, 2” of rain falling over 24 hours isn’t going to lead to the apocalypse. You’re talking about less than 0.09” an hour. A lot of this storm was lighter rain which is exactly what this region needed (I know I saw the flooding videos from washes). Rant over. I just think days in advance people were calling this a catastrophe and it was very clearly going to be the exact kind of rain event the region needed to put the nail in the coffin of the perma drought