NorthHillsWx

I think it’s actually the opposite. I think faster timing gives less time for the upper level cool pool temps to moderate allowing for rates to capitalize on top down dynamic cooling. Slower solutions are showing moderation of temps in the upper levels and thus no cold air available and mostly rain solutions. The HP is kind of a non factor here besides for storm track bc the air associated with it and dew points are just too high to make a difference for freezing/frozen

12z GFS another good run for western half of the piedmont. Maybe not quite as good as 6z but still very heavy snow in similar areas

ICON a big hit for mountains/western piedmont/SW Va. Its been very persistent last few runs, I’ll give it that

It took till February 8th for something to track but better late than never

Someone getting NAMd for sure this evening

Battle of the losing streaks in chapel hill…

Agreed but no one can write it off yet either from the upstate through the piedmont and ULL are best known for surprises. I really think the upstate is more in play than a lot of modeling has shown to this point. For points east it really is going to depend on SLP track and strength and be an absolute thread the needle type of deal but it certainly will be entertaining to track bc I don’t think this will be resolved until the event starts. I’ve never known one of these setups to be resolved with any lead time, this will be no different

This seems thread-worthy at this point with all guidance buying into something for somewhere in the forum 4 days out. Not sure who dares start it though…

Unfortunately with an ULL setup that’s just how this is going to be! You need to be just west of the low which is vertically stacked and where the banding sets up. You also need a stronger low. Euro has progressively trended towards a more GFS and there is very little wiggle room here as there is no cold air availability other than what the storm has produced. That being said, nothing about the overnight runs trended worse. Euro actually trended better. The way I see it, someone is getting snow from this but where that is is tbd and going to change on modeling every run until it begins. That’s just the nature of this type of system but it’s a fun one to track with big upside for a small area

Another Euro run, another positive trend from that model. Agree, mountains, NE piedmont, SW VA all seem to be in good spots for snow from this but it still has legs anywhere from the upstate to the MA and points east

GFS really presses the cold mid month around the 17th. Much colder look than last run, more in line with the 12z run

You can throw the ICON in there for the same areas, if you dare speak of the ICON

Someone must’ve whispered the word “climo” and then “I-85” into the GFS’s ear before this run

0z GFS a big hit for NW piedmont, SW VA and mountains.

I can tell y’all this is going to go back and forth every run until the event begins and ULL tracks are notoriously hard to pin down at range but we just need to keep the general idea alive the next couple days before we even remotely press the cancel button on this one. 18z looks fine to me at this range

RAH has introduced snow into my point click forecast

It’s February 7 and we do not have a single storm thread for the season, not even a fail (no a thread about the 3 day cold outbreak and severe threads don’t count) That’s pathetic even for our low standards! This is the first mid range threat of the season. I say wait past 0z and if it’s still there someone (not me) start one tomorrow. That way we can say we killed at least one storm this year with a thread

Euro at 500 mb was a SIGNIFICANT improvement. EPS and GEFS both ticked way up in favor of something in the forum. Dare I say 12z was an excellent trend ACROSS guidance as we break into medium range inside 120 hours. Still absolutely not even close to a lock or even consensus but we’re inside 120 hours and we’re still tracking with positive trends!

Alright, at the risk of being shredded by posters of the forum, I will speak my peace in regards to temps: Modeled BL temps do not matter in this setup. There is is no cold air source (we know) and if this system wasn’t there it’s likely in the 50’s. But that’s the beauty of cool pool ULL- they do not rely on CAA for snow. It’s a top down “cold manufacturing” process. If you don’t get dynamic cooling from heavy rates, no snow. What we’re looking for in this setup is going to be a system going negative tilt, rapid deepening of the surface low, and a sharp area of convergence on the back side leading to enhanced rates. These systems are extremely track-dependent and will not be a synoptic event for the area, but they can be significant over producers and have led to some great systems in the past for those under “the band.” Happy tracking

I’ll say this- if the only storm this year is someone from the forum outside the mountains getting nuked in a narrow band by an anomalous upper level bowling ball low in an otherwise abysmal pattern with absolutely no cold air source even remotely available nearby with zero Atlantic blocking and sandwiched between two spring like warmups, it would just be so fitting

GEFS made big improvements too from previous runs. Easily the best yet for this system. Op was not on an island

For what it’s worth, as 12z today 100 hours out we have: GFS- bowling ball ULL ideal setup for heavy snow and dynamic cooling where banding sets up CMC- similar to GFS in placement/timing but more neutral tilt and too slow to ramp up for same dynamic system ICON- very similar to GFS Dare I say, we have something realistic to track? Doubt Euro goes full GFS but if it has a similar idea (hasn’t been far off) I’d say we’re really in the game. Personally, ULL setups are very exciting bc they can be so dynamic and can lead to glory when nothing else will work (this year).

For posterity’s sake- the 12z CMC trended much better than previous runs. Much more neutral tilt and slower. Not as amped as GFS and obviously doesn’t get it done with the dynamic cooling (what this entire setup relies on) but it’s another model suite that actually looks very similar to GFS at upper levels than just a few runs ago

That 12z GFS depiction would be an extremely impressive band of snow somewhere in central NC. Sounding looks very similar to the March 2009 event in the upstate with potential for thunder snow. Also some pretty good winds with the SLP winding up. All in all that would be a paste bomb. We’re roughly 100 hours out so, hey, this is the closest we’ve been this ‘winter’!

I’d have to think if the ICON was taken verbatim with moderate to heavy snow for 4-5 hours and 32-33 degree surface temps, someone in a band would have some decent accumulation. That’s not necessarily an unusual look for these types of setups where accumulation is completely rate driven and usually sets up in narrow bands. That’s the risk we take with the “exotic look” though!