NorthHillsWx

In other words: here we go again. Cold ain’t making it to the SE in time, if at all.

Completely caved to GFS this run. Crazy how poor the Euro has been this season

Huge differences between GFS and EURO/CMC camps. No change to our weather but model handling of that system has been terrible

Significant upside with this system but two totally different camps. It does have a significant -NAO and there is cold air north of it. Good sign for a major storm across guidance but obviously a lot needs to go right for something other than cold rain and I don’t discount the GFS inland track at all

SER is now a permanent fixture. I’m sure we’ll see 90’s in March while New England freezes

Probably the first time since NWS started issuing products the entire RAH forecast area went an entire winter without even a WWA issued

Had to turn it on yesterday. Upstairs was 75, too hot for me

Highs in the 50’s instead of 60’s

Might be the first snowless (measurable) winter of my life

80.7 today

GFS gets us out to March 10 and it never gets to freezing in the Carolina’s. Might be hard pressed to get a frost, much less a snow

Forecast highs are really coming down for tomorrow across a lot of piedmont areas due to increased cloud cover and slightly decreased heights with SER a little east. Some CAMs keep temps around 70 for the better part of the day. Today looks like a lock to get into the upper 70’s-lower 80’s south but it would be a significant miss tomorrow if temps stay around 70 from all the hype of the previous week.

With that look in late February one would usually expect a solid CAD event but under the curtains it’s still too warm for most everyone

12z GFS gets no areas outside of the mountains and south of Virginia below freezing through March 8 (end of run). Very bad setup for early spring growth and costly freezes down the line

^^^ over the last 3 years PNA has been the most important teleconnection for our area. Perhaps a flip to Nino will offset some of the influence of -PNA in ways that lead to less of the above.

Cutting my grass for the first time in 2023 today! Hopefully Wednesday and Thursday we smash some record highs

Outside of Buffalo and Maine, pretty much everyone in the east is sharing the misery this year

RAH now has my forecast high up to 89 degrees for Thursday. Not only would this shatter the daily record high, but also the highest temp EVER recorded for RDU for the entire month (84). If we broke the record high for the month by 5 degrees, this would have to be one of the most dramatic smashing of a monthly temp record ever for the site. Also, with no mitigating factors for a record high temp event in central NC Thursday, another very important record may be in jeopardy: first 90 degree day. The earliest first 90 degree temp at RDU is March 12. This would shatter that record set in 1990. Seriously impressive heat for mid-late February coming this week in a historic early season heat wave

Mid 80’s this week and folks are still trying to sniff out snow. It’s over folks, not that it ever even began

Grass needs mowing and trees are budding. It’s spring time folks. Maybe we get a freak snow event but winter is over

Watch us get some crap white rain event in mid March that leads to 25 pages of posts and then some whitened mulch. That would send this winter out in the style it deserves

December 2018 was the last time my street was plowed. That shows the kind of rut we’re in.

They’ll be back here shortly

I don’t buy it at all. It’s just simply not cold enough for freezing rain and it will now be falling in daylight. I had held out hope that folks outside of the mountains would get a decent thump and it looked very promising as recently as 12z yesterday but models have trended: 1) Even slower. Now a daytime event Sunday and it gives the cool pool everyone outside the mountains is totally relying on more time to moderate 2) much drier in deform area. Mid levels dry out when you’d think precip would be solid and you end up with no snow to bring cold air down, a huge issue with temps 3) Further NW with low tracking inland 4) Presence of the dreaded warm nose Im not saying it’s impossible someone gets lucky but it would seem this threat is dead outside the mountains and even there the snow potential seems half of what it was yesterday through 12z