NorthHillsWx

As expected, loss estimates from Idalia have come way down. While some early estimates placed damage at nearly 20 billion, estimates have fallen to a more paltry number of 3-5 billion https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/private-market-insured-losses-hurricane-idalia-be-3-5-bln-moodys-rms-2023-09-04/

Textbook look on last images of visible this evening. Cannot wait to see this thing explode in the open ocean. I’d say the odds are probably 90% this thing recurves but it may come close enough to cause impacts beyond large waves

Topped out at 95.7 today. Dry as a bone

Isabel was a similar setup to the 18z in terms of ridging though that ridge built in longer driving the storm NW further

I know I just have friends in Tampa and work for the utility company that covers NC, SC, and Fl. It was extremely underwhelming for us (good thing) but 20 billion is extreme and there didn’t seem to be extreme damage but in areas no one lived. My point I guess is if this is the case a cat 1 hitting Tampa would also be a 20 billion $ disaster

Where is the damage? Usually there are picture’s everywhere. Other than a few micro communities and Perry I do not see where this value comes from. In NC where I live there was some flooding down east but nothing you wouldn’t expect from any tropical system. Maybe crop damage jacked it up? I just do not see 20 billion in damage from anything I’ve seen so far

Not sure I’ve ever seen a cluster of storms in such a small area. That’s insanity in the Atlantic right now

0.85” storm total for Idalia, with an additional 0.15” from the storm the evening before. Exactly an inch between the 2

Likely a convection less low level swirl if it gets left behind. If it’s generating deep convection it’s going to exit stage right

Only bc it slammed a WMA instead of a populated city

Has there ever been a major hurricane that wasn’t retired after a US landfall? This one might be a candidate to avoid retirement based on early returns

Perry looked like a meat grinder this morning https://x.com/icyclone/status/1696922050454028731?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

Entirely due to a tiny core of winds (roughly 15 miles diameter of maximum winds with the eroding inner eyewall) and it hitting a WMA instead of a town. Inland gusts rarely reach MH strength even in the worst storms. IDA in particular was able to generate gusts to MH strength well inland but that’s bc the topography of that area is basically an inland sea especially with surge. I have no doubt MH+ winds occurred in a small area near the coast where this thing came ashore. I think we’ll see gusts to 100+ as it starts impacting a few more populated areas and the wind field expands

Interesting. I wonder where they were. Maybe those high end velocities didn’t mix down efficiently bc radar showed 130+ mph in the NE eyewall

Radar returns of 60.5 dBZ showing up near Perry!!!! Wow that’s high for a TC

Perry in the center of the NW eyewall

Look at Tampa radar. I’m not sure it was open on SE side

I think we have landfall

Charley could be a similar analog (though that storm was slightly stronger) as to what this wind damage corridor will look like. Extreme wind damage to very little just a few miles away

Also, eyewall lighting is picking back up. It sputtered for a minute but this isn’t coming in much below peak at all. Major wind threat inland though from reports it looks like it will be a very narrow corridor

It actually looks like land interaction may have offset or stopped the ERC as the inner eyewall again looks dominant. We saw this with Ida in Louisiana. Interesting stuff going on here. Definitely a high-end 3 making landfall. Radar, sat, velocities all confirm this. Thank god this is coming into a sparsely populated area

130+ mph velocities again. Moving onto coast as I type. They’d decreased some 30 min ago but have picked back up in NE eyewall

Eye might be benefitting from frictional convergence. Donut again from Tampa radar. This is not a rapidly weakening storm like a lot of the gulf halfacanes we used to see. I think this is steady state making landfall after a higher end peak a few hours ago

This thing is like a carbon copy of Michael’s progression to this point. Go back and rewatch a satellite loop of hurricane Michael from its birth as a depression to when it passed west of key west. The resemblance is scary

The only silver lining from the trends this morning is, if the current track holds, the storm could not have found a much more sparsely populated area than where it’s currently forecast to make landfall