NorthHillsWx

Back to back to back***

18z happy hour run was not very happy but obviously still doesn’t go out to the possible pattern change

High of 73. Muggy out

Right and that’s the problem. The pattern this year stinks. We have nothing in short term to go off of. Supposedly El Niños are backloaded here and indices are trending great for that time period but it absolutely has to produce or we are out of time. It’s been so bad the last 6 years we haven’t had anything to track within 5 days. Haven’t even had anything we could lose in that period. Long range ensembles and indices are the only thing that have shown favorable patterns, short range guidance hasn’t even needed to be used

Not to say Larry was wrong, but if we go back three weeks, the weeklies were screaming this whole period would be below average. That ended up being the aforementioned 3-4 day cool snap. How are we to trust the same weeklies saying the same thing at the same range and expect different results?

The warmup was advertised. What wasn’t advertised originally was the short duration of the cold before. It was all wasted in the Tennessee valley. If you look at RDU this month, we’ve had 8 days above average, 11 near average days, and 5 below average days. Im sure this averages out to near average for the full month, but with a very warm end to the month and a very warm December, it’s extremely likely that 2 of our 3 main winter months will be above average. Now that’s somewhat expected during an El Niño year, but the last pattern change that led to the cool outbreak from a sensible weather perspective was really just a few post frontal passage cold days overshadowed by a massive warmup. The fact we’ll be close to 80 in late January is more impressive than two nights in the teens. Add in the snow drought and a 2-3 week wait for the next cold/possible wintry chance, and yea, these 3-4 day cold snaps bookended by weeks of average to average + temps don’t really cut it. We know we don’t get wall to wall cold ever but a front every 2 weeks would be nice instead of burning the better part of a month waiting on the next cold snap and praying it won’t just be 3 days long

It wasn’t even a week here. We had a cold day, 50’s the next day, near 60 the day after, then 2 days with cold 30’s highs and two days in the 40’s. Really just 3 cold days and two below average days. Very unimpressive in central NC. I have no doubt the pattern will change back, but to your point (and this goes back to last year too) models frequently have overestimated the duration of these cold periods. If the change in February is a big rainer followed by 3-4 days of cold then another warm up, we are cooked. No one outside the mountains should ever bank on snows past February 20 as they have become as rare as a direct hurricane landfall on coastal Georgia. We simply have punted too much winter to punt again past mid February

384 GFS sets us up for a big dog incoming. We can dream, right?

Well the idea of 3 weeks of solid warmth is getting derailed at least in the ops. Canadian actually first to pick up on the cooler first week of Feb (it’s backed off somewhat). GFS has trended way colder

Looks like 38.4 will be our high today. Down about a half a degree from that atm. I actually think tonight might be our coldest night of this outbreak if we can maximize radiational cooling

Low of 17.2

18z GFS = close but no cigar. Plenty of cold air, shockingly

I was so wrong. Temp maxed out at 33.5 and actually fell the rest of the afternoon. Serious CAA. Currently 30.2 and falling quickly

That 1/30 timeframe has rapidly become interesting

Why/how could you leave that for our weather today?!

Also that 28-30th time period would favor a cold source in New England vs the Midwest. Much more favorable around these parts. At least something to watch

12z Canadian is VERY close to something. Need just a hair of a negative tilt and this torch becomes some excitement

Id be fairly shocked if we stayed below 40 today. Only got to 26 last night already pushing 34 at 11

Actual weather discussion in the weather thread?!?! Nice to see models throwing a gap in the torch. Unfortunately the +2 NAO is just awful but at least the 70’s appear limited to next week. I really don’t like the ensemble look from the 2nd through the end of the runs but with the nino, pac and lack of blocking, even the warmups are going to be tough to lock in for long with everything flying around. Seasonal seems to be the call, which doesn’t bode well for snow but will keep the blooming at bay. It’ll be interesting once we get in range of mid month to see if changes start appearing on the ensembles. Some agreement across guidance of a pattern change would go a long way to brighten the spirits of this board. All we can do is wait for everything to get in range. That end of month period might work out for the mountains though. I’m glad parts of the region are having a better winter than last couple years.

Turkey hunting

Congrats mid Atlantic folks. I’ve been lurking and enjoying y’all’s joy this week. Send some love our way after the pattern resets!

Front has come through. Down to 47.7

Temp shot all the way up to 56 despite a forecast high of 49!

Yea I’m trying to stay as positive as I can but it’s tough given the past 6 years and all the hope El Niño and analog years brought. At best it seems we’ll be lucky to get a storm to track. That’s way off what most thought where the idea was the active STJ and suppression of SER would lead to multiple opportunities. I mean it’s going to be mid February and we haven’t even had a threat to watch inside 5 days. Gonna take a high end event to salvage this year at that point

Here’s the problem: that pattern change, assuming it happens, and assuming isn’t kicked down the road, means at a minimum we are burning the next 3-4 weeks of winter. We cannot afford to burn 3-4 weeks of winter when it’s already January 19 and everyone’s snowless. Been hopping into the MA forum. They’re having quite the week. Two over performing systems and sustained cold. Just a different world down here. It’s currently 52 out and long range GFS drives some 50’s into central Minnesota to begin February. This winter can kindly move along at this point. I’m sure it’s primed to give us 30’s and rain as we move into March