If I'm not mistaken, the Euro has a block and a low on its way to the 50/50 region, which would help keep it from cutting.
Not that it matters, of course, since it's the Euro all the way at 240.
I'm not sure why people are giving you such a hard time.
No...it doesn't matter whether there's going to be an advisory or whatever. If you just look at the discussion you'll see that it's starting to look like an advisory-level event, and we should expect that some sort of advisories will be posted sometime today.
But there's a vort just behind it that looks to take advantage of the path that first vort laid down. The second (and some other pieces of energy flying around) goes negative in a pretty decent spot. Looks like it's not far from going boom as the northern stream energy swings in from behind.
GFS has that ridiculous 959mb inland bomb around the same timeframe in yesterday's 18z run. Definitely a timeframe to watch. I think PSU mentioned the other day that around that time as another window of interest.
And the energy in the southwest is a little east. Subtle changes that hopefully don’t ultimately result in little change at the surface like has been the case so many times in the last week.
I agree with you, but remember what we said about the Sunday deal?
Small, better changes that were offset by other changes that were worse, and also that the ultimate solution didn’t seem plausible. It’s just that this thing is sliding rather than a wound-up bomb.
It's so frustrating. Like you said earlier, it's one step forward...but I'm thinking one step back. It's not getting worse (except the Euro) - it just refuses to get better. Why can't we get this thing to run NNW from 75miles off Hatteras? Did it before, so it should do it again. Right? It's the least we deserve.