mattie g

The biggest difference between now and, say, 10 years ago is that a lot of us long-timers aren't up for dealing with the bullsh*t any more. We've gotten older and wiser, have other priorities in life, we like to yell at clouds, etc., and the mods (understandably) don't have the wherewithal to deal with the new folks that muck things up. I mean...I distinctly recall getting smacked down by Randy when I was relatively new and being a bit of a prick, so I cleaned up my act and got with the program. I'm sure plenty of others have done the same. It doesn't help that "weather Twitter" and the like are a thing now, and that pros and serious hobbyists are taking their knowledge there, rather than interacting with folks on weather boards. If this place is to remain, there's going to come a time when either the younger/newer faces will need to step in and help steer the ship, with long-timers hopefully finding it a place worth sticking around.

Steamer

It just seems like such an odd track for the surface low. Not saying that it’s wrong…just that it’s odd. How often do we get lows running right up the fall line?

Came here to say the same. I mean…I thought it looked a little better to start, but my not knowing sh*t about weather was quickly confirmed.

I already want off this ride.

So...give you the cold and you'll take your chances with precip?

“CTE loves this post”

Before or during COVID? Because, depending on your answer, that could make me feel good or not so good.

I'll take it, but I'm confused as to how the surface reflects what's going on at 500. Is it because the flow is flatter behind that big storm that in it on the GFS?

It's going to be awful, and it's starting already. What'll make it worse is when people start quoting the people I have on ignore.

Not sure about the rest of you, but I'm definitely seeing the back edge of this upcoming promising period and feeling the need to deb everyone up. Yeah!

Awful, awful day. The only negative to snowfall: cold, rainy melt.

Aaaaaand…ignored.

Honestly, man…dafuq are you going on about?

Didn’t realize it was a bust down here, as well. All Philly mets were honking huge storm for us, but we totally whiffed. As PSU mentioned (and as I saw with my own eyes), it was a big’un at the Shore.

42 and rain on top of good snowpack is pretty bad, too.

I mentioned similar to luvr yesterday. We’re going to see big storms pop up on guidance and then disappear, only for others to pop up two runs later with the “new” threats being on completely different days. Someone is going to get smacked - maybe multiple times - before this runs its course. It could well be us or we could whiff completely (which I doubt), but the pattern is ripe.

I remember both the 1987 and 1989 events you mentioned…but especially 1989. Unlike today, we almost never had school cancelled the day before a snowfall, but in this case we did. I woke up disappointed, no doubt, but I recall shooting hoops at a friend’s house for much of the morning since there wasn’t a flake on the ground. That afternoon, my parents took me and my little sister to Ocean City to get our (and my dad’s!) fix. I distinctly remember the drifts that had piled up on the boardwalk businesses - well up to the roofs on many of them!

If I were to sum up this post for someone who didn’t want to read it, this is how I’d do it: Modoki and moderate Ninos are very good around here. This is what PSU’s analysis shows about the height anamolies for those years. It’s INSANE that a Nina is showing a progged pattern that literally mirrors the average height anomalies of those best Nino years. This is why people are excited by the potential (remember…it’s just potential!) of the upcoming period. Fantasic post, PSU!

It’s about time we had something to be excited about. Now watch us get shut out.

I think the ops out to about a week give a good feel for timing of possible events. Ensembles will help as you go farther out. This is all said with a HUGE asterisk next to it. Surface weather on any model looking out beyond three days in a relatively volatile pattern can’t be trusted, but they give you a feel for the timing of potential events IYBY.

Agreed. I wouldn’t be surprised if something pops up in that time. Long-range monster snowstorms are [incredibly!] fun to see modeled, but there’s just no reason to pay attention to details on ops at range. We say it all the time, and I understand why folks want the odd crazy solution to come true, but we just need to take it as one of innumerable possible ultimate solutions.

I know you know this, but we won’t be locked into anything unless we get a killer block and a real southern stream storm. We’re going to see crazy solutions up and down the east coast in the medium to long range while we’re in this pattern. Those exact solutions will come and go, but someone will eventually cash in on an event in which the models will give weenies decent confidence at about 72 hours out (whether it’s us that gets hit or those farther northeast).

For that group, drink “up” in terms of ABV. Basically, drink the smaller beers first, as those might seem lacking in flavor if you follow a beer that’s significantly higher in alcohol. I’d also suggest drinking the more bitter beers first (regardless of ABV), as they may come off as astringent if you follow a soft IPA with a bitter IPA.