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crossbowftw3

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Everything posted by crossbowftw3

  1. crossbowftw3
    Just as fast it went back to all rain still holding at 39. Relay beginning to believe that folks in MA/CT are gonna get caught off guard as all 6z models are beginning to imply 3-6" that way now
  2. crossbowftw3
    TWC point forecast implies rain and snow but hard to see flakes right now. Still surely rain dominant at still 39 degrees
  3. crossbowftw3
    Back end of the shield is crossing Elmira now, probably have another 4-5 hours of this left to get flakes
  4. crossbowftw3
    Waking up to discover I have not dropped below 40 degrees at all. Running out of time for anything great but still rooting for flakes. The precip is leggimg it all the way. New England is looking ever the more better now Edit: well, 39 now. But since Temps will not get close to freezing not a ton of snow (if any) will succeed in sticking.
  5. crossbowftw3
    definitely gonna need the rates to be good enough to get the accumulations on the cooler surfaces/grasses especially as the transition will likely not happen here until close to sunrise
  6. crossbowftw3
    Still gonna root for 1-2" here at 800' but coating still works. If this were a month later a decent snowstorm would be just getting underway. Expecting to hear up to low advisory amounts at elevations still.
  7. crossbowftw3
    I almost let myself get head faked by what was actually the 6z Tuesday run of the Para but you still have a shot at good snows from this. It was never meant to be for MBY though for anything over a few inches.
  8. crossbowftw3
    Regardless flakes is a win this early on in the season. Typical early season setup will do as it typically does here I think and BGM is doing well to paint the picture. We will all get ours soon.
  9. crossbowftw3
    Gonna get skunked at only 800' here in SW Sullivan. Maybe I'll find some cams and watch the snow Friday morning....and cherish the maybe coating that I get here.
  10. crossbowftw3
    Here we go again. At 700' in Sullivan County I'm not gonna count on much of any here, but I can reasonably assume we will see some flakes here. Elevation is key for early season events, might apply once again here. @sferic Your house in Liberty might be good for up to 3" as I understand things now
  11. crossbowftw3
    There's been six known instances of max wind potential (105 MPH gusts) in any watch, most recent was just last year across Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin
  12. crossbowftw3
    1630 outlook further expands the moderate risk into NW Wisconsin, with rather concerning wording at hand. 7000 SBCAPE pooling in SE ND already. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
  13. crossbowftw3
    6/3/14 for wind, hail cannot go past moderate. most recent PDS severe watch happened August last year.
  14. crossbowftw3
    The case of lower Michigan might be one where a PDS severe watch is warranted only if the tornado threat was slightly lower. It's still entirely plausible under current circumstances, however. For us further east folk it looks like limited forcing today.
  15. crossbowftw3
    It is. coincidentally on the same date as Lee County from last year.
  16. crossbowftw3
    No longer waiting for Cookeville. EF4 with winds of 175.
  17. crossbowftw3
    Hearing from other forums that Tennessee EMA Spokesperson now indicating at least 28 deaths, 200+ injured.
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