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Kmlwx

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  1. Kmlwx
    Yeah could definitely see that. I think the big questions are how much recovery happens and how intense that frontal line gets. I could see it being anything from robust/gusty showers to a major damaging wind event. For now I'm holding back on sounding any alarms obviously. We will see what SPC thinks in the update coming soon. If they trim back probabilities for areas that have seen the line - we'll know their thinking we are "done"
  2. Kmlwx
    None of the models seemed to have a great handle on that line that just went through. I want to see the next few HRRR runs to see if they change anything for later on.
  3. Kmlwx
    Also - every now and then early shower/storm activity can enhance low level moisture and make things even soupier. Not that we had an issue with the warm air/dewpoint advection already - but with some sun on this moist ground that could really enhance things for later.
  4. Kmlwx
    The other thing is that so far - these aren't doing the thing where a ton of stratiform rain develops behind storms and lingers for an hour or two. These seem to have plenty of clear areas on radar right behind the line.
  5. Kmlwx
    I personally think this line is moving through early enough to allow for atmosphere recovery for afternoon activity. We'll see.
  6. Kmlwx
    64 degrees with a similar dewpoint in Colesville, MD (but I'm at the office right now in Potomac)
  7. Kmlwx
    One would think a new mesoscale discussion should be coming soon
  8. Kmlwx
    To have YOU in our thread honking like this is alarming. Great analysis and we always welcome you in here with open arms.
  9. Kmlwx
    If nothing else - it has that "soupy" feel out there (not summer time soup - but moist regardless)
  10. Kmlwx
    "Funny" to see warnings already about to depart the watch box down there heading N and E
  11. Kmlwx
    I might have been misunderstood - but the firefighters I know yes, do not WISH for people's homes to catch fire - but on a dead quiet shift absolutely 100% get excited when a call comes in. I thought it was a good parallel because of course they are not hoping for somebody's livelihood to be destroyed or for lives to be lost...but if a fire were to break out - they want to be the ones responding. We have no control over the weather. Regardless - we can take the weather ethics debate to banter - I am 100% sure that zero people here are 'wishing' for people's homes to be destroyed is my point. But we are weather enthusiasts - we have NO CONTROL over it - we are going to track interesting weather with fascination and interest. It doesn't mean we are hoping for dead people.
  12. Kmlwx
    Every year we have the ethics debate. I can't speak for others - but I am not "rooting for severe storms" in the damage sense. I like interesting weather - and I/we/us have no control over it. If it's going to be a substantial severe day, I am going to track it with enthusiasm. Nothing we say or do is going to change the outcome. Consider this - firefighters on a quiet shift will welcome a call coming in...
  13. Kmlwx
    More just my general baseline for days like today
  14. Kmlwx
    My benchmark for crapvection in these events if 9-10am. If things look socked in by 9 or 10 am, it's often times a bust. If there's ANY breaks in sun by that time, it ramps the threat level up substantially. Even then, still ways it can be muted.
  15. Kmlwx
    It actually tries for like 3ish rounds - I'm not sure I buy that but who knows. It has the pre-frontal stuff, a line in the afternoon, and then a frontal line it looks like of heavily forced showers with high winds. Has some UH swaths come through around 3-4pm.
  16. Kmlwx
    10z HRRR has some pre-line stuff and then a decent looking line later on.
  17. Kmlwx
    0z CSU-MLP guidance is an uptick from the 12z run yesterday.
  18. Kmlwx
    I have the Ellinwood scoop!
  19. Kmlwx
    Was already posted!
  20. Kmlwx
    Just pondering the definitions and inner workings of SPC outlooks....I try not to be that person who continuously "forecasts the forecast" - but I could see SPC going to 75% wind but perhaps holding to CIG1. My reasoning is that the SPC outlooks are "within 25 miles of a point" - I don't think you're going to see much argument from most folks with setting that probability to 75% if severe criteria is 58mph. I'm less certain of TOR percentages - I am not sure that will go any higher than 15% unless there is a game time identification of a more robust corridor of tornado risk. Upping TOR percentages is harder because of the more isolated nature of that type of severe. If there truly is a QLCS - even if it only has sporadic swaths of 58mph winds in it - in a major metro corridor like I-95 - you're going to probably verify on damage reports pretty easily on the wind category. Anyway - I'm just rambling - and I do think we stick to a moderate - but I could see them tickling the high risk even more by bumping to 75%. They can go to 75% and still have this be a moderate risk.
  21. Kmlwx
    https://x.com/forecaster25/status/2033247105238569123
  22. Kmlwx
    In my mind right now - the "floor" is probably something like a semi-solid squall line of widespread 50-60mph winds with the synoptic winds behind it. Still could yield a lot of damage reports which could verify a high percentage (even if not high CIG) I suppose. I guess I could see a scenario where they pull the trigger on a high - but I agree with others that it would not be before 1630z tomorrow - and if they did it we'd potentially see one of those mesoscale discussions a couple hours before the actual outlook update to say "CATEGORICAL UPGRADE" I still think this is a moderate risk through and through - but can't deny some of the dynamics at play. If people "want" a high risk just for the wow factor - the messaging has already been intense enough all weekend to get the word out.
  23. Kmlwx
    Yep - looks like zero changes locally. Discussion mentions continued uncertainty. The messaging is already intense - I think it's the right call not to bump to a HIGH.
  24. Kmlwx
    And wasn't it you who said he is conservative normally? My personal thought is that we *don't* go to high risk - but it doesn't lessen the impact to many people that this system may have.
  25. Kmlwx
    I very much doubt we will ever see a D2 high risk in the Mid-Atlantic. Even in a scenario like this - some form of failure mode exists.
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