Kmlwx

I don't think we will ever have a true solution for model run PBP organization. The solutions are either too strict or too loose. It's too hard to find a middle ground. On one side, I'd LOVE during storm times to see model PBP restricted to a group of like 10 perhaps trusted people (and have red taggers exempt from any restrictions, of course). That probably won't work though... I'm all for encouraging a friendly environment - but there seems to be this sense that the youngsters feel they need to post as much as possible when they are excited to inflate their post counts. Quality over quantity folks! Being first doesn't get you extra credit or anything. Like I've said before...I was in your shoes before too...a lot of us were, in fact. But you've just got to reign it in a bit. @DDweatherman - I was in no way, shape or form "blasting teenagers" by the way. But there is a recurring theme going on and for those of us that ARE standing on the sidelines reading - it really, really, really clutters the main thread. I know you know that you and I were BOTH guilty of being kids in the past. But perhaps you and I have taken different approaches to this. Not saying one way is better than others - but as a POSTER, I all but try to disappear in the winter unless I'm posting obs during the storm. Posting fast and furiously and bantering in the storm thread is contributing nothing if it's lacking in quality.

Gotta love this... I'm not watching the models roll in other than here so I assume Randy is correct? But I won't jump to conclusions.

Seems like there's been some hints on guidance of a potential snowpack refresher of like an inch or two on or around Thursday of next week. We can tackle that once the first storm is "out of the way"

Some people have different post per page settings. Not only that, I’d think many people use the “show latest posts” so they won’t miss your post. I’m not sure you’ll lose many or any post views from positioning is my point! Unless I’ve missed like 10+ pages, I always try to read through all the stuff I’ve missed

Probably supercomputer time being limited. It might be shared with other tasks.

If it was truly from a weather app - it was probably generated on model output with little or no human input.

Surface temps are not the ultimate determining factor for ratios though. You can be 15 degrees at the surface and have poor ratio flakes.

Matches with what I'm seeing!

I did try T-Mobile home internet too. I’m a nerd and actually have all of these connections available.

@LongRanger moving this here but just curious what you are seeing with the NWS cert. i have looked via a FiOS connected desktop and not seeing what you’re seeing. Also checked via T-Mobile phone and iPad as well as a Verizon connected cell. Also tried with all extensions disabled, both with and without custom DNS settings. I just cannot duplicate the invalid cert you are seeing. And actually add an Xfinity connection now too showing valid.

I get the sense that some of our younger and newer posters feel like the more they post, that they will literally "will" the storm closer. Friendly annual reminder that your post count means nothing. We have established "regulars" here with post counts well under what you'd think. Sure, many of us are in the thousands. But who cares? Take it from somebody who grew up on Eastern and then here....you will not gain any favor with people by beating the same horse over and over and over and over again - and posting 3 word posts all day and night. It clutters the thread. Most of us have gone through the phase you are going through. It will either snow or it won't, It's okay to be excited...but you don't have to reply to EVERY post. And not EVERY post needs to be morphed into an inside joke. Sit back and learn a little. Enjoy the hunt. It's okay to read a bit more than you post. THINK about whether you REALLY need to be post every time you go to hit the reply button. In all likelihood (and I mean this in a lovingly/mentoring way) your post will, in the realm of things, be barely a speck in terms of significance.

Maybe it was Master of Disaster My memory isn't what it used to be in my youth

This sounds much more tame than your doomsday ice storm scenario from year's past. I vaguely remember you mentioning things like toilets not flushing because of power failure at wastewater treatment facilities and such. Maybe I am misremembering

I think @Eskimo Joe - outlined a emergency management nightmare scenario a few years ago as it pertained to ice. It was a true horrific narrative if I remember...

It could be a myriad of things. But also - things that are on like decadal cycles may be to blame. Consider that the modeling tends to be more stable at range for southern stream dominant systems. For many years now there has been a lot of northern stream influence - which the models objectively (not subjectively) are worse at predicting.

The data argues you are wrong. It could be that general patterns are more chaotic right now and that previously, models have KNOWN biases whereas now it's sort of just as likely to bust in any direction. But this opinion has been debunked plenty of times. The models were NOT more accurate 15 years ago.

The 18z GFS hasn't run yet...

Poor Wes

Omg...it gets earlier every year. I'll see how things look on Wed/Thursday lol.

Lots of folks on here seemingly are in need of other hobbies. Pick something! It will help you fill the time. I'll be the first to admit that having snow chances fade is really disappointing. In the past 2 months I've gone down the espresso/coffee rabbit hole. Trying a new latte/coffee drink recipe most mornings is a fun experience. Many of the folks on here are craft beer enthusiasts - indulge in that! I also plane spot where I get the chance, spend time with your pets/family/etc - do a big puzzle, grab a new video game. There are countless ways you can get lost in something new to pass the time until a snow threat becomes apparent. Or,...the less desirable option....if you work...lose yourself in the ho hum of the 9-5... It doesn't make the sting of missed snow chances any less...but it helps pass the time until a new threat emerges.

Ok

Eh - we all do it! Blame superstitious weenie-minds!

I get what you are saying but models have no impact on each other. The GFS is not "getting other ops to move towards it" - they don't talk and aren't interconnected. The only "trend" would be from id they are all in time figuring out the solution.

Gusty shower line to close out 2025? Friday AM?

The product is "Lightning flash density" and thus with lightning would come thunder!