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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    That's one thing that during our heat stretches this year...the dewpoints haven't been mixing down as low as they have in prior heatwaves. That makes a ton of difference for sensible weather...sure we hit 100 sometimes but often the dews would drop back into the 60s. Being up near the century mark and having dews stay well into the 70s is nasty. Radar looks meh for the DC region for now - but that activity down deep in VA looks decent. Will have to see if anything more substantial pops up closer in. Some of the CAMs yesterday had a sort of gap in the activity between SEPA and Central VA/Southern Maryland leaving some of us high and dry (relatively speaking).
  2. Kmlwx
    MCDs seem to be surrounding us lol Also 86/78 here. Thought my dewpoint was suspect but @MN Transplant gives me some confidence in it.
  3. Kmlwx
    Would think a mesoscale discussion would be coming in the next 1-2 hours. But only guessing.
  4. Kmlwx
    Uptick in lightning near Jerryville, WV
  5. Kmlwx
    It's Yoda accidentally refreshing this page instead of the SPC site.
  6. Kmlwx
    @dendrite - @Wow - just bumping here as it seems like the same symptom(s) are back today. Lots of intermittent CloudFlare issues. Getting hit be foreign IPs again?
  7. Kmlwx
    The board is having issues again it looks like
  8. Kmlwx
    14z HRRR continues to be fairly bullish. I'm relatively "in" so far.
  9. Kmlwx
    Red circled area looks decent...
  10. Kmlwx
    Severe wx is fickle....impossible for any of us to say. 5 miles makes a huge difference on days like today for sensible weather. If nothing else - 80 miles isn't terrible in the grand scope of things...and I guess there are worse places to be than Columbia
  11. Kmlwx
    I've always been vocal in my opinion that I love our summer severe crew. With a few notable exceptions over the years we all just seem to mostly get along and not stir up the drama like the larger crowds in winter. Sure....every now and then we get the ethics debate about "rooting for" severe weather. But all in all, we are just fellow weather weenies trudging through the hot, humid, disgusting days of spring through early fall until we can start tracking first frost/freeze. This is banter, and I am being a little overly nostalgic - but I mean this wholeheartedly when I say it: Some of my most fond weather memories have been centered around Eastern/AmWx over the years. Sure...the actual weather events themselves are the "core" - but I've experienced them alongside all of you. I've had the pleasure of meeting some great characters from here in person at the conferences as well. Whether we bust today (or in general) or not...gotta say ya'll are awesome.
  12. Kmlwx
  13. Kmlwx
    Our severe crew isn't always up super early (except @yoda who seems to never sleep lol). We don't do the wall-to-wall posting as well as the larger winter crowd. I'd expect by 9-10am you'll get some more of the folks posting in here. Pretty cloud in Colesville, MD right now. Haven't looked at visible sat yet though
  14. Kmlwx
    Then again...clouds are one of our most common failure modes. I do think someone will get walloped tomorrow. But I might have been inclined to keep it at 30% with no CIG hatching. The CSU MLP guidance has not painted any 45% contour at all on today's runs. That said, the 30% on that guidance *is* centered over the DC region.
  15. Kmlwx
    Afternoon LWX discussion mentions "significant severe weather episode" and "scattered significant wind damage reports"
  16. Kmlwx
    Double post but deal with it We all need to just consider the outlook meanings as a whole. a severe report within 25 miles of a point can be VERY high confidence especially in highly populated areas where there are now an abundance of spotters and average joes sending reports in.
  17. Kmlwx
    Well I also think exactly what we all thought would happen with the new outlooks this year, has happened. It truly is that with forecasting advances, 45%+ is just not going to be super uncommon anymore. Everything has probably shifted upwards a tier. So 60% may be the new 45%. I think we will continue to see a higher incidence of 45% wind days. It does *not* mean that there will be more outbreak days. We have to sort of re-train our brains at least on the wind side of the outlooks. We used to get super amped for a 45% wind day....that will be like a 30% in the past. Sure - it's better than 15% but it's not like a derecho is coming through. If 2012 evolved in this new outlook scheme - as SPC upgraded that night with the line approaching - we probably would have gotten a 90% prob...
  18. Kmlwx
    Nothing new....we probably will really have no idea how it will play out locally until 10am tomorrow or later
  19. Kmlwx
    CIPS is not super-honking (the threat is there - it's just more muted). If nothing else - I am hoping for an event where I am working from home for a change (or at least in the area...) That said - a confirmed TOR passed near me up in PA Saturday evening (the Houtzdale/Whiteside, PA one confirmed by CTP). Was a few miles away.
  20. Kmlwx
    https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ Not posting individual maps since there are many toggles from the NCAR page - but NCAR highlighted areas would argue for continuing to shift the ENH eastward if it is correct.
  21. Kmlwx
    Latest CSU MLP guidance
  22. Kmlwx
    Could end up being too far east for D3 and too far west for D4 lol.
  23. Kmlwx
    I'll be out of town on Saturday (still in the slight, but still) - so I expect a massive severe line to wipe out the DC area.
  24. Kmlwx
    Yep - it’s always the most likely scenario when outlooked that far out. Things will almost always trend earlier or later and either direction can of course be worse for timing.
  25. Kmlwx
    If we are going by weenie superstitions that is a kiss of death.
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