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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    That radar looks like a nuke went off....holy crap
  2. Kmlwx
    I still would generally favor south of DC for tomorrow. But the NAM nest and HRRR do get activity (some seemingly severe?) into all areas tomorrow. After shrinking the 15% contour to the south of us yesterday, CSU guidance has it back north of the M/D line. So that's good. We'll see (as always!)
  3. Kmlwx
    CSU MLP guidance favors south of the area for Tuesday. CIPS is not enthused really. NCAR which normally is overly bullish is not terrible but given its normal...is under enthused as well.
  4. Kmlwx
    Dueling models
  5. Kmlwx
    Take notes people. EJ is interested
  6. Kmlwx
    Seems the GFS has a remnant EML in the vicinity for next week.
  7. Kmlwx
    Just heard thunder from that!
  8. Kmlwx
    Though - look at the storm track at least at the moment. Even that one may be on track to go well south. Closer for you regardless. Maybe some of the more local stuff can grow upscale. There's still a chance!
  9. Kmlwx
    IF (big if) that were to hold intensity...the track could be in your area - but I feel like it will have a tendency to go more south.
  10. Kmlwx
    Echo tops almost 53,000ft on that stuff.
  11. Kmlwx
    Isn't part of that because the storm is largely perpendicular movement in regards to the LWX radar? Where in the case of BWI/DCA they have a bit more of a rear/front view of the velocities?
  12. Kmlwx
    I'm getting sunshine in Colesville despite radar returns being over me lol
  13. Kmlwx
    @yoda
  14. Kmlwx
    The other thing to consider is that cell @yoda mentioned is in an area and continuing ito areas that the blob of precip has been impacting...so if it holds/intensifies it could be a good indicator for downstream. My only concern is that by the time that stuff shifts closer, we will be well beyond peak heating. We will have to rely on better forcing to continue the threat. Though....it does remain QUITE soupy out there.
  15. Kmlwx
    I mean - my rational side says that all the junk around is going to lessen our threat substantially - but the Morgantown cell plus that one entering WV from OH does have me intrigued as those are heading in our general direction.
  16. Kmlwx
    Good lord yes it is. Certainly for this part of the country. "large and extremely dangerous tornado" text on it.
  17. Kmlwx
    Honestly at this point if that precip blog survives the mountains maybe we can just get a few hours of soaking rain...
  18. Kmlwx
    Yeah all that junk to the north and west is killer. It's a huge blob of sub-severe rain
  19. Kmlwx
    Kind of impressive that the SE OH cells are showing a bit on the LWX radar (in GR2AE3)
  20. Kmlwx
    This sort of thing has happened before. But also somebody noted a little further up that Convective Temps are like 95 today. So without the better forcing from the front we might not have much going on until later. Also @yoda - I'd think so - but quite of bit of seemingly stratiform junk in front of that stuff as well. A messy radar picture as a whole other than the organized stuff down south.
  21. Kmlwx
    A little shower popping near Brunswick now.
  22. Kmlwx
    It's beyond the echo tops product range for LWX too! Impressive that it's showing so strongly. Must have a heck of an updraft...
  23. Kmlwx
    Hopefully the VA storms don't rob energy - I think they have enough separation. That severe cell back in WV may be awfully far away to be our threat...will have to see if anything can trigger along the ridges and such.
  24. Kmlwx
    That's one thing that during our heat stretches this year...the dewpoints haven't been mixing down as low as they have in prior heatwaves. That makes a ton of difference for sensible weather...sure we hit 100 sometimes but often the dews would drop back into the 60s. Being up near the century mark and having dews stay well into the 70s is nasty. Radar looks meh for the DC region for now - but that activity down deep in VA looks decent. Will have to see if anything more substantial pops up closer in. Some of the CAMs yesterday had a sort of gap in the activity between SEPA and Central VA/Southern Maryland leaving some of us high and dry (relatively speaking).
  25. Kmlwx
    MCDs seem to be surrounding us lol Also 86/78 here. Thought my dewpoint was suspect but @MN Transplant gives me some confidence in it.
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