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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Even for severe - making a thread results in a bust
  2. Kmlwx
    59.4/59.4 at Colesville now. Off the high of 67.5
  3. Kmlwx
    Close the thread
  4. Kmlwx
    And another factor for any forced line later (or synoptic winds, for that matter) is that for areas that get a dumping of heavy rain - the soggy ground could make even sub-severe gusts capable of tree damage.
  5. Kmlwx
    The latest HRRR (still rolling out now) still has a substantial forced line for later on - with a weird bend/kink in the line modeled right near the DC metro area. Wind gust product looks decent as well. Regardless of how stable we are - that line later will probably still pack a "punch" even if it's the sudden 50mph sub-severe variety.
  6. Kmlwx
    Decent wall of rain and a bit of a wind gust just now in Colesville, MD as it hit.
  7. Kmlwx
    This line has some "interesting" little cells in it. I am also curious to see how gusty the synoptic winds end up being after the frontal passage. That could add in a few more downed tree reports in the region (but not severe t'storm related, of course). I think there are a few interesting "kinks" in this line that bear watching for brief spin ups.
  8. Kmlwx
    Yeah that looks decent - I must ahve been looking at the more recent runs.
  9. Kmlwx
    Yeah could definitely see that. I think the big questions are how much recovery happens and how intense that frontal line gets. I could see it being anything from robust/gusty showers to a major damaging wind event. For now I'm holding back on sounding any alarms obviously. We will see what SPC thinks in the update coming soon. If they trim back probabilities for areas that have seen the line - we'll know their thinking we are "done"
  10. Kmlwx
    None of the models seemed to have a great handle on that line that just went through. I want to see the next few HRRR runs to see if they change anything for later on.
  11. Kmlwx
    Also - every now and then early shower/storm activity can enhance low level moisture and make things even soupier. Not that we had an issue with the warm air/dewpoint advection already - but with some sun on this moist ground that could really enhance things for later.
  12. Kmlwx
    The other thing is that so far - these aren't doing the thing where a ton of stratiform rain develops behind storms and lingers for an hour or two. These seem to have plenty of clear areas on radar right behind the line.
  13. Kmlwx
    I personally think this line is moving through early enough to allow for atmosphere recovery for afternoon activity. We'll see.
  14. Kmlwx
    64 degrees with a similar dewpoint in Colesville, MD (but I'm at the office right now in Potomac)
  15. Kmlwx
    One would think a new mesoscale discussion should be coming soon
  16. Kmlwx
    To have YOU in our thread honking like this is alarming. Great analysis and we always welcome you in here with open arms.
  17. Kmlwx
    If nothing else - it has that "soupy" feel out there (not summer time soup - but moist regardless)
  18. Kmlwx
    "Funny" to see warnings already about to depart the watch box down there heading N and E
  19. Kmlwx
    I might have been misunderstood - but the firefighters I know yes, do not WISH for people's homes to catch fire - but on a dead quiet shift absolutely 100% get excited when a call comes in. I thought it was a good parallel because of course they are not hoping for somebody's livelihood to be destroyed or for lives to be lost...but if a fire were to break out - they want to be the ones responding. We have no control over the weather. Regardless - we can take the weather ethics debate to banter - I am 100% sure that zero people here are 'wishing' for people's homes to be destroyed is my point. But we are weather enthusiasts - we have NO CONTROL over it - we are going to track interesting weather with fascination and interest. It doesn't mean we are hoping for dead people.
  20. Kmlwx
    Every year we have the ethics debate. I can't speak for others - but I am not "rooting for severe storms" in the damage sense. I like interesting weather - and I/we/us have no control over it. If it's going to be a substantial severe day, I am going to track it with enthusiasm. Nothing we say or do is going to change the outcome. Consider this - firefighters on a quiet shift will welcome a call coming in...
  21. Kmlwx
    More just my general baseline for days like today
  22. Kmlwx
    My benchmark for crapvection in these events if 9-10am. If things look socked in by 9 or 10 am, it's often times a bust. If there's ANY breaks in sun by that time, it ramps the threat level up substantially. Even then, still ways it can be muted.
  23. Kmlwx
    It actually tries for like 3ish rounds - I'm not sure I buy that but who knows. It has the pre-frontal stuff, a line in the afternoon, and then a frontal line it looks like of heavily forced showers with high winds. Has some UH swaths come through around 3-4pm.
  24. Kmlwx
    10z HRRR has some pre-line stuff and then a decent looking line later on.
  25. Kmlwx
    0z CSU-MLP guidance is an uptick from the 12z run yesterday.
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