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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Would think if anything forms it will be no worse than the straight line wind threat from these. Just may be a gustnado or similar if that keeps the bend in the line going.
  2. Kmlwx
    The kink in the line is probably going to get a very brief "bookend vortex" style spinny.
  3. Kmlwx
    Yep. We probably needed a combo of this coming through during daylight, and also more breaks in the clouds during the day...and less crapvection. Perhaps any combo of two would have worked.
  4. Kmlwx
    This shape of the line with a bend nearing DC/NoVa was well modeled by the HRRR
  5. Kmlwx
    LWX velocity scans are picking up 40-50mph winds around and passing the radar site (under 500ft) heading east. Looks like they are broadbrush warning the entire line. Entire metro severe t'storm warning.
  6. Kmlwx
    Tornado Warning for SHORT PUMP!
  7. Kmlwx
    The biggest question will be how much of this will be able to mix down now that the sun is down.
  8. Kmlwx
    Seeing some 60mph pixels down to like 2.5kft-ish W of Remington.
  9. Kmlwx
    Velocities 3-5kft off the ground are impressive with the line coming near Culpeper now.
  10. Kmlwx
    I also fought the separate thread for days. Finally gave into it...
  11. Kmlwx
    18z HRRR for later....
  12. Kmlwx
    Even for severe - making a thread results in a bust
  13. Kmlwx
    59.4/59.4 at Colesville now. Off the high of 67.5
  14. Kmlwx
    Close the thread
  15. Kmlwx
    And another factor for any forced line later (or synoptic winds, for that matter) is that for areas that get a dumping of heavy rain - the soggy ground could make even sub-severe gusts capable of tree damage.
  16. Kmlwx
    The latest HRRR (still rolling out now) still has a substantial forced line for later on - with a weird bend/kink in the line modeled right near the DC metro area. Wind gust product looks decent as well. Regardless of how stable we are - that line later will probably still pack a "punch" even if it's the sudden 50mph sub-severe variety.
  17. Kmlwx
    Decent wall of rain and a bit of a wind gust just now in Colesville, MD as it hit.
  18. Kmlwx
    This line has some "interesting" little cells in it. I am also curious to see how gusty the synoptic winds end up being after the frontal passage. That could add in a few more downed tree reports in the region (but not severe t'storm related, of course). I think there are a few interesting "kinks" in this line that bear watching for brief spin ups.
  19. Kmlwx
    Yeah that looks decent - I must ahve been looking at the more recent runs.
  20. Kmlwx
    Yeah could definitely see that. I think the big questions are how much recovery happens and how intense that frontal line gets. I could see it being anything from robust/gusty showers to a major damaging wind event. For now I'm holding back on sounding any alarms obviously. We will see what SPC thinks in the update coming soon. If they trim back probabilities for areas that have seen the line - we'll know their thinking we are "done"
  21. Kmlwx
    None of the models seemed to have a great handle on that line that just went through. I want to see the next few HRRR runs to see if they change anything for later on.
  22. Kmlwx
    Also - every now and then early shower/storm activity can enhance low level moisture and make things even soupier. Not that we had an issue with the warm air/dewpoint advection already - but with some sun on this moist ground that could really enhance things for later.
  23. Kmlwx
    The other thing is that so far - these aren't doing the thing where a ton of stratiform rain develops behind storms and lingers for an hour or two. These seem to have plenty of clear areas on radar right behind the line.
  24. Kmlwx
    I personally think this line is moving through early enough to allow for atmosphere recovery for afternoon activity. We'll see.
  25. Kmlwx
    64 degrees with a similar dewpoint in Colesville, MD (but I'm at the office right now in Potomac)
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