ORH_wxman

Yeah. That run had a few inches of snow, then ice, then rain, then maybe back to snow at end of wave 2. Good luck at guidance figuring that mess out. Today has seen a definite shift south of the boundary on guidance compared to last night. Not counting on anything being consistent though. Wouldn’t be surprised if it goes north 100 miles next run. That type of look. I still like 2nd week of Feb too.

Euro coming in significantly colder/flatter for midweek. Guidance definitely having trouble with that boundary placement right now...which isn't a big surprise.

Euro is trying for like an inch or two of snow over SNE for Sat night...esp south. It turns into an IVT but it almost starts off as a little midlevel magic band oriented NE to SW with the H5 trough....

You can tell people about the 1979-1992 stretch (with a special highlight on 1988-1992) and they won't really believe you unless they experienced it. It goes in one ear and out the other. If they remember 1997-1999 then they might have gotten a little preview...that was kind of cruddy stretch...esp down in CT ad towards NYC. I think what I get a kick out of the most these days though is how often people "cancel" winter or throw in the towel in January....you would have thought they learned from 2013 or 2015 but I guess not. Logic or reason never got in the way of a good temper tantrum, lol. Maybe this year they will be right...but when you do it every time, it kind of loses its meaning. Kind of like how JB never missed a KU, right? If you forecast a KU all the time, you can always claim you forecasted it when a real one hits.

Yeah take the under on the sfc temps if that verified....that would just lock in the sfc. But this is literally gonna change every run or two though at this range.

GFS coming in flatter....initial western ejection of energy is more sheared out....in favor of Tip's idea that models may want to hedge that way. It is still trying to eject the final southwest piece in a pretty robust fashion though.

Yeah I pretty much take the dartboard approach too...I have followed LR forecasts for a long time, and I love reading them and appreciate the innovation that has occurred in them.....but we still have a LONG ways to go.

CPC was awful last year...they literally might have gotten their anomalies backwards....they had a good forecast in 2017-2018 though. Here's their past two seasons versus verification

One of our biggest limitations is I don't think we have a very accurate ability to forecast the north pacific...it's better than the north atlantic, but still pretty tough. Remember all the cold N plains forecasts before 2011-2012 too? Not many forecasted an AK pig that year.

Going warm has worked pretty well for the east coast...but you'd prob get your ass handed to you if you defaulted warm in the plains/lakes the past decade-plus. Really since the '07-'08 winter which seemed to shift to a colder regime up there after all those torches in the N plains from 1997-2006....east coast has dealt with a SE ridge.

I remember in the Feb 2006 blizzard, the old ETA totally whiffed us on the 06z run the night before...and I mean total whiff like northwest of I-95. Might be one of the worst 12-18 hour forecasts I've ever seen....very next run it was back to hitting us with 10-20 inches. I bet nobody remembers the Euro going way east before 12/9/05 (probably because they didn't have the fancy QPF graphics and clown maps they have now). Even slightly more recently, I feel like everyone has forgotten some of those very hard trends northward on the SWFEs of 2007 to 2009 in the final 48h....maybe NYC weenies remember better....they got taken out of the snow frequently on those.

LR forecasting is more accurate than it was 1-2 decades ago....but it's still very difficult.

Models used to be worse with flip-flopping IMHO....we see more gradual trends now than we did a decade to two decades ago.

Yeah I'd expect nothing there....check back in a few days to see if it has changed. The late week setup could be snowier too....but no sense in getting hopes up 7 days out.

Tuesday/Wednesday will be too far north for most of us....but late week is interesting. Could be an ice setup.

BOS is +9.4 but the map shows them in the +6 to +8 range. So it seems the map is ignoring them. Bot sure where that little patch inland is coming from. Maybe some coops...not sure. First order sites aren’t that warm. It has definitely been a furnace month but the BOS numbers are also definitely off. Both are true... BOS +9.4 ORH +7.1 PVD +7.1 BDL +7.4 MQE +6.9

It would be interesting to run the covariance of your snowfall with a place like ORH or where powderfreak is....I'd bet your covariance with ORH is higher because you get hit by most of the coastal that hit interior SNE plus all the SWFEs that we share....there's obviously some strict latitude events that only give snow to, say RUT-CON-PWM northward, but I'd bet they are fewer in number and magnitude than the former ones listed. That said, you may have one of those middle of next week.

This pattern looks nothing like 2012.

12z suite definitely showing the positive (from a snow lover's view) potential in February. I'm sure we'll have some runs that show us the negative potential. Midweek is definitely more interesting than it was earlier, but I'd definitely still hedge warmer at the moment....gonna be a fight to get that boundary south of about ART-BTV....but we'll see. The transient EPO ridge that moves through around D3-4 is what causes the southward press of the arctic boundary, and the EPO has been biasing positive recently. Behind that system though there's some good things that can happen.

Go for it....that'll be a good way to ensure Quebec City jackpots.

LAte Jan '97 and early Feb '97 were quite good up there so you guys didn't get the big break we got in '96-'97 winter....I know that because we went up to Sunday River a lot that winter as my cousins grandfather (on the side I'm not related to) had a house in North Waterford. I saw the snowpack gradient very sharply in southern maine as one drove inland. I recall a ton of snow being added to the pack between MLK day and then when I went back on 2/16. There was about 2.5-3 feet on the ground when we got there in the mid February trip....and up at Sunday River it was probably 4-5 feet on the level once above about 2k feet.

You can see the difference between the 00z EPS and the 12z EPS on the midweek setup...fwiw, most other guidance is trending like this too. So we'll have to see if that continues or trends back the other way

Euro has a second wave developing along the front once it sags back south....ice/snow setup around D8....but this whole thing looks pretty unstable. Midweek definitely needs to be resolved first before there's really any idea what might happen after that.

Euro definitely look a step toward the overrunning look but verbatim still a bit too far north for most of us....looks like NNE stays mostly/all frozen or freezing.