ORH_wxman

Jesus Christ take it to the banter/panic thread guys.

Looks like 12z euro improved a bit for the 495 belt too. Not expecting a lot of accumulation there but better chance to see an inch or two versus just a few flakes.

GGEM was kind of close too…but the key for next week is to drive that boundary further south and the little clipper that passes to our north this weekend is a key player…on runs where it’s further south, it drags the boundary more southeast behind it and gives New England a chance. Most recent runs have had it pretty far north…but 12z today has been coming a bit further south with it. NAM was furthest south easily (but can’t see next week’s system on NAM obviously).

Sfc temps are mostly fake…look at 925 to get a good idea. Some areas might even radiate a bit right after sundown before clouds get thick (esp further northeast)…but that won’t matter if 925 is like +1.

On the plus side, GFS might try to give the Rose Bowl snow again in clown range. @CoastalWx is really excited about another snow anomaly there.

That would require getting some good variance…not in the cards these days.

That’s a really close call next week on GFS. If we can get that little clipper system this weekend further south, it will make next week’s threat more interesting.

GFS is basically all snow from 495 outward. Not sure I buy it but we’ll see if short term guidance comes in cooler as we get closer this afternoon.

He might get 18”+ from all the upslope enhancement behind it.

Yeah I’m hoping being near 495 with several hundred feet might help at the end. I’ll still be surprised if I get more than an inch. Won’t be surprised if it’s less. Could actually be some pretty good squalls in the late morning to early afternoon too. It’s really unstable so while the focus is on the synoptic stuff, there’s a great thermal profile for big snow squalls.

Yeah our area isn’t getting much. We may get a coating to an inch if lucky at the end between about 4am-8am tomorrow morning.

Your area is tough because by the time you get to Tolland, the highest hills are more narrow in width, so it’s like these small slivers where you’d focus the higher accumulations. So unless you know that area really well, most people will just gloss over. Even for Union, I used to always have to talk to my guy there telling him to ignore maps where they’d stop the higher accumulations near ORH and that you could extend them further south to his area.

Yeah there was a nice training of squalls right in that area.

I don’t think they pulled BOX map into the ALB map. BOX is still too low for your area imho. They need to up your area to Union CT

18z euro juiced back up some. Looks solid for NE CT up through ORH hills.

Gonna be a big difference between even the highest elevations of towns like Barre and Warren versus eastern spine of ORH hills near Holden/Princeton. Anytime there’s a strong W and SW flow, that QPF gradient sets up. Wouldn’t surprise me if a place like winter hill got 2” and 10-15 miles west at similar (or even lower) elevation gets 4-6”.

EPS does have a bit of a reload occurring at the end of the run which matches the weeklies from yesterday which showed a good pattern setting up the final 10-12 days of the month. Always nervous about the western trough becoming semi-permanent but the guidance doesn’t show that yet at least.

The few snow events we’ve had have been marginal temps or close calls on precip even hitting us (like Feb 13th last winter). Haven’t had a relatively easy moderate/major snow forecast in a few winters.

I’m always nervous about these late-blossoming precip shields. I made a comment a day or two ago in this thread how the precip shield is going to look ghastly until the last second. Tomorrow night around dinner time it’s going to look awful but then the stuff should really blossom…a lot of it will blossom in top of us too. But if that development is just a touch later then you are screwed and the bulk of QPF ends up east. Hopefully the short range guidance will get a good handle on it by tomorrow AM. But there’s def going to be a nowcast element to this.

That’s not gonna get it done. Prob 1-2” of paste if that verifies.

I’m hoping we can catch a break since we have a lot of cold-loading up north. One of these can produce those sneaky highs that helps us out. That’s been the hardest part recently…actually getting a high to hold for a bit. Even if it retreats eventually, you can get good events if it fights for a while ala 12/16/07 or something like that. We haven’t been able to time any confluence up there in our favor.

3k actually has a pretty nice 2-3 hour burst of mod (perhaps briefly heavy) snow in eastern MA early Thursday. Metrowest could perhaps grab an inch or so during that if it verifies.

You may have some rain early in but I’d expect you to flip to snow pretty quick if you do. If you avoid rain in the first 2-3 hours of the steady stuff, you’re good. The profile cools after about midnight or 06z.

Yeah sharper trough it seems so it’s really developing that brief anafront look. So you get milder on the front end out east but there’s better QPF in the cold sector which does eventually push east. It helps out southwest CT a lot actually.