ORH_wxman

It’s pretty damned good there. Prob 75-90” average (from southeast to northwest) with excellent retention....that retention is the big thing. Once you get near Sebago and north or northwest, the retention is ridiculous. By the time you are up toward Brigdton, it never melts. Western Maine (and adjacent NH) is the CAD capital of New England.

Yeah you gotta use standard dev so that you are comparing apples to apples. A place like BOS has a much higher variance on their annual snowfall relative to average than Stowe does or even dendrite or ORH. Likewise, mid-Atlantic cities have an even higher variance than BOS relative to their averages. Using standard deviation adjusts for all of this. Years where BOS gets like 90”+ is probably like when Stowe (village, not mountain) gets like 175”+. (Can’t remember for sure but I recall you saying 175 was a monster number for in-town snowfall)

There is a pretty decent covariance between NNE and SNE snowfall. It’s generally quite rare for one region to get smoked for the winter while another has a ratter. There’s exceptions in each direction of course. When I line up the NNE blockbuster winters, I’m usually saying “that was a good (or great) one down here”. Though if you have to pick a region with the lowest covariance outside of N Maine (might as well be in Labrador there), it’s probably yours. We tend to have the highest covariance with the southern half of Maine and then NH....no surprise, as those areas are most likely to share huge storms with us. But even when I look at huge N VT winters, most of them were good or great here. There’s a few head scratchers like ‘98-‘99.

I think we’re up about 10% this year alone. Most of that in the past 3-4 months. Flight to exurbs is real at the moment.

The early 1950s were absolutely horrific for snow in New England. Those winters were torches too. You're gonna be like college kid who's only had a beer in high school and then does a keg stand their first party....lol. Even a ratter up there will seem great the first year or two. But once you get a real winter, then you'll start calibrating.

I think the closest I ever came to not reaching 4" was 1988-1989. We didn't reach a 4" event until 3/24/89. It was poorly forecasted too....was supposed to be all rain, but we had fat aggregates at 31F for hours late afternoon and all evening....had about 7" where I was in Holden, MA (just NW of ORH).

Chalk up another W for Scooter....two days in a row below 80F.

Yeah I do not care about local jackpots that much....they are fun, but I wouldn't sacrifice snowfall for them to occur. Like I wouldn't take a +0.5 sigma snowfall winter when many others were normal or below normal over a +1 sigma snowfall winter where say, NNE, was +1.5 sigma.

I think it depends on the jackpot fetish too....would you rather be in a local jackpot and get near normal or slightly below normal snow (ala last winter)? Or miss the jackpot and have solidly above average snow? I'm basing the stats strictly off total snowfall for the season....obviously not accounting for whether Scooter had more snow in Weymouth even if you were still doing ok (like 2014-2015). The two biggest NNE snowfall winters in the last 50 years are 2007-2008 and 1970-1971....one was near normal temps ('07-'08) and the other was frigid ('70-'71). I'm trying to think of some other blockbusters....2000-2001 in NNE, that was below avg temps. So was '68-'69...another blockbuster NNE winter.

Empirically, I think you still want below average temps, though the variance is high. 2016-2017 sticks out like a sore thumb. I sorted the winters in your sig based on snowfall. (I estimate the 2019-2020 snowfall...CON had 46 but you prob had at least 15-20" more I'm betting) If we sorted by precip, it would have a higher correlation I'm sure. (i.e., temps matter, but less than precip)

Tail end of 2017-2018 was a blockbuster period for SNE. I had about 40 inches in March 2018. The true M.A. blockbuster year was 2009-2010. They did do very well late in 2014-2015 and also late in 2013-2014.

It was a sneaky big storm for MA....really only SE MA got screwed

BOS 60F dew and ORH 59F....definitely doesn't feel muggy. It doesn't feel like 40F COC that we get in May, but for July, this is pretty nice. It helps that the temp is 67F.

As an aside, the Euro has been forecasting a big burst in easterly winds across the dateline region....which may provide a boost. The La Nina tendency had been weakening over the past week or two, but we could see a resurgence.

Yes, region 4 was the warmest, with values hovering around 1C above average. .

Yeah I'm not sure I'd even call last year a weak El Nino in the sense that we typically compare to other weak Ninos...it was so borderline. It officially made it, but it basically rotted at 0.5C for an eternity.

Lol...40s in July?

ME is great. Much better snow climo and retention. Brutal springs though. You need to become a “spring bird” and leave every April and return Memorial Day. Lol

The snow climo is awful in PIT. Jerry, you’d move back to Boston within a year or two. Lol. Total snow climo might be “similar” (PIT is maybe 3” less than BOS) but it’s horrendous for 6”+ storms and retention is awful. Not sure how quickly the snow climo increases in the suburbs. The airport is actually elevated outside the city so you probably get he opposite effect as Boston. If you’re anywhere toward the river down lower the snow gets less. In BOS, you get more than the airport pretty everywhere unless you are in a place like Hull.

Most action will be E of ORH today I think. Some stuff could pop overhead in ORH county and E CT though....but the bulk should be east.

Pretty good clearing punching into ORH now....most of SNE should be in the sun soon. RAP/HRRR do show some action for eastern areas this afternoon so we'll see.

I had 27” for the month of December and 17” in that storm. It is almost impossible to have a turd winter when that happens....but we found a way. There is no other winter like it in the analogs. Closest I can think of is 1996-1997 but erase the 3/31-4/1/97 storm...that year had the epic early December including the Cantore thundersnow event and then laid a total turd until the end when we got the big one. This year was similar but we didn’t get the big finish...those we did get a lot of little (to occasionally moderate) late season snowfalls.

Consistency too in the flow. I mentioned further back we haven’t had those classic 58F turds mixed in with onshore flow like we seem to get every June...so usually when we have a +3 June, we’re saying “oh man, there must have been a few 96s in there!!” since we know there were probably a couple 57F onshore flow episodes mixed in. But this year, it’s like just consistent above average but not the “scorcher” days mixed in.

Their max so far is 94 on 6/22 and 7/10

What day did you hit 90?