ORH_wxman

Yeah the raw snow total was excellent at Randolph this year but the max snow depth was a little on the low side. Here are the max snow depths and total snowfall for each winter at the current site (which is right near Phineas...about 200 feet up the hill and a mile or less away)...I'm actually surprised at how "low" the max depth in 2010-2011 was...that was not a warm winter like this one was and it had an extra 34 inches of snow.

Didn't see a thread yet for next winter. We're getting past the "spring barrier" for ENSO forecasts....which means we're emerging into a clearer picture of what it will look like in that region going into fall. There isstill uncertainty, but it is reduced compared to a few weeks ago. We're currently looking like we will be heading into La Nina after a weak El Nino. Here's the latest ECWMF and C3S (used to be EuroSIP) plots: They are pointing toward weak El Nino by fall....we'll see if that develops further into a moderate/stronger forecast as summer wears on. There are some very cold anomalies in the eastern region at depth, so it's possible that it could translate into something more than a weak Nina if we start getting easterly feedback. Anyway, there is precedent for La Nina winters following a weak El Nino....most recent examples are: 2007-2008 2005-2006 1995-1996 1970-1971 3 of those 4 years were pretty strong winters in New England. The outlier was 2005-2006, though all 4 had big Decembers. The QBO looks to be going negative (though it's not in a hurry at the moment)....that would make '07-'08, '05-'06 and '70-'71 the best matches. '70-'71 and '07-'08 were pretty potent La Ninas (both high-end moderate or borderline strong) while '05-'06 was not. It remains to be seen where this one is headed. There is evidence in both directions. I'm kind of leaning moderate at the moment with the big subsurface anomalies and the model guidance already going solidly weak Nina....I feel like the guidance tends to underestimate the strength historically.

Reminiscent of the post-2/4/95 lack of snow. I think we had a total of like 1.5" of snow that year after the storm on 2/4. This year, we had a little more but they were little 1-2" jobs before the 4/19 storm. Maybe that means December 1995 is en-route. We're going into La Nina too.....

Jan-Mar was about as bad as it gets. Maybe 1955 matches it. I'd probably rank it an F if I was where you are since the coast didn't get as much benefit from the December snows. I wanted to rank it an F here, but I couldn't with 27" in December.

Friday seems like the least likely day to have onshore flow issues.

90s can shove it....much rather have 68 than 90-95. I'll be ok with 80-85 though.

The December here keeps me from giving the season an F. Hard to be a total failure when we get like 27” of snow that month plus a white Xmas. But still a solid D.

Euro looks like a Tip screen door special for eastern areas next Saturday. Scooter throwing furniture in his basement while it’s 90 at BDL.

68F right now. Feels amazing. Doing yard work today and this is perfect.

Got down to 49 here. Perfect sleeping weather. Had the window open.

The pattern is clearly getting to Kevin. It’s just not SNE’s month for big heat despite some teases in the medium range. NNE has been getting it and it looks like it goes over the top again later next week and then ensembles show troughiness moving back in. Maybe we get some big heat in July. There’s some signs that July could be pretty hot.

Lets get some flakes up there down to the base.

Over an inch of rain here today. Wasn’t expecting that.

It's unusual, but not unprecedented. They do get pretty big June snowstorms a couple times per decade down into the 4-5k level in the northern Rockies. I recall one in June 2011 that hit them too. This storm did get snow pretty far south though....so probably rarer to get it so late into the Colorado foothills below 7k feet.

A quick 0.40" at the nearest PWS....pretty solid. Didn't last very long, but it poured when it came down. Have had over an inch here in the past 5 days.

NNE has been the big winner for heat so far this season.

About to get a nice downpour

ne.weather is where it's at with DT sticking daggers into the Mid-Atlantic in March 2001.

He said he was going to be off by a day or two on his heat wave call when 6/8 wasn’t looking hot. Now the goal posts are going to have to be shifted to just “above average”. Gotta wonder if the BDL tarmac even hits 90F this week at all.

It's an interesting debate on that one....my gut says less people would die, but the areas in Holden where the tornado tracked definitely have a lot more people than in 1953. North Worcester area hasn't had a big population increase since those days....some....but nothing like Holden. Most of the neighborhoods in N ORH where the storm tracked were already built in 1953. People being caught in their end of day commute could offset the warning available nowadays vs 1953.

The interesting part about reading the dozens and dozens of accounts of that storm is how few knew it was a tornado coming. So many just described it as "this big black cloud" and it never occurred to them that it was a tornado even though most of these people knew what a tornado was. A lot of it probably had to do with none of them actually ever seeing a good picture of tornado. Though there were several who immediately thought of Flint when it was about to hit them...at first they were confused and then for some of them the "lightbulb went on" when they connected the two incidents. I remember reading about one guy who initially had his family inside on the first floor...but then he thought of the Flint tornado he had heard/read about earlier that day and immediately rushed everyone to the basement....and his house sustained very heavy damage. The last second move likely saved his family's life.

It was just south of the warm front and the prefrontal trough likely triggered it

Forgot to post this one too....this was I think the earliest known photo of the tornado....though it had been on the ground for probably 10 miles at this point.

For those who aren't as familiar with Worcester....the old Assumption College campus was where Quinsigamond CC is now up in Northern Worcester. You can still see the slight change in coloration on the bricks where they repaired the damage....or at least you could like 10 years ago....not sure if they ever did a full renovation since then.

Here's 3 of the best pics of the tornado....followed by the "controversial" damage on Uncatena Ave which initially proves F5 rating....but then was deemed to be "weak structures" despite not having any engineering plans for those buildings. A lot of folks I've talked to over the years say it was not a scientific decision, but a political one. The top guys didn't want to admit an F5 was possible in New England at the time when the fujita ratings were coming out in the early 1970s. Kind of a fascinating discussion to have with many of tornado guys I've talked to over the years.