ORH_wxman

December 2015 was warmest on record and nearly snowless. Jan/Feb 2016 had a few fleeting moments (if you were far enough south in CT you got a decent piece of the Jan ‘16 mid-Atlantic KU)

At least you’re prob getting good upslope behind the 12/5 system. More favorable look than the trash this current system will give.

The 7th-8th event is probably a non-event if 12/5 phases like we’re seeing on the euro now.

Neutral.

No, you’re thinking of 12/29/76. 12/5-6/81 gave ORH like 10-11”. E MA was the jackpot though for sure. Just not quite the obscene gradient as the ‘76 storm.

Yeah I expect a lot of shifts in this storm. They pretty much all suck for us (as advertised ad nauseam) due to the disgusting airmass....but I’m hoping that whatever happens it helps the pattern behind it. That prob means we want to root for the phased solution if the Euro/EPS is any indication.

Would prob be east of euro but hard to say by how much. We’d prob be screwed down here but powderfreak to Alex/phineas would prob like it.

You'll be thanking me soon enough when you drive back from from MD with bare ground around 12/20 and come back for Xmas with like 2 feet OTG.

Yeah it's been there and it got better today. The NAO look especially is a nice trend. I won't believe t until I see it, but I'd rather see that than a black hole.

Pretty nice look on the EPS today out beyond the storm. It's really going nuts with the AK ridging and even has some -NAO weakness.

Yes, but this was a pretty big jump in phasing on the EPS....if it went a little more, then it would end up being like the OP run.

Def showing some phase though....that's a big difference form earlier EPS runs.

It phased these two shortwaves....which no other run has been doing. Probably overly aggressive. Euro seems to like to dive the northern stream too much at times...Tip often talks about this bias, but it would be relevant here.

Yeah...CP in SNE has almost no shot...interior SNE has a faint shot if things line up perfectly....NNE has a real shot, but still there could be issues if the Euro solution happens. I'm pretty skeptical of the Euro solution though.

Rains to St. Agatha...Randy and Zwyts throwing their laptops out the window on I-95 in Maine

Euro went with the bolded part.

Not far off....prob like SLK this run.

Lol, the Euro is going to phase the southern stream with the *first* northern stream shortwave.

12z Ukie is a Randolph Roof Collapser. Not quite enough for interior SNE.

You can see the GGEM has a little bit of a better synoptic setup than the GFS up in Quebec....little high trying to feed down and entrained just enough cold air.

It's too bad the southern stream is ejecting now rather than getting buried in the southwest. That northern stream shortwave is diving like crazy on today's runs for Dec 7-8, but it can't produce with the wave interference from 12/5-6.

GGEM is more interesting for the interior on Sat night/Sunday.

Ugh....I wouldn't forgive him either for missing that storm. That was one of the all timers.

Well the GFS gets it done for St Agatha.

Yeah RE: the bolded.....we need to infuse northern stream into this in order to crash the thicknesses enough to make this matter for snow. So it's definitely a "thread-the-needle" system. Leaving the southern stream behind in the southwest and focusing on the 2nd northern stream shortwave for 12/7-8 turned out to be more useful like yesterday's 12z Euro....but it seems we're trending away from that now as the southern stream is ejecting and we're back to the 12/5 system which is tougher and probably causes too much interference for 12/7-8 should that shortwave even try to dig enough. So we're left with trying to phase the first northern stream shortwave with the southern stream for 12/5....all while not "accidentally" tracking this too far west at the same time.