ORH_wxman

Yeah, man....I don’t go quite that far back, but I remember him before he was on-air. I think prob around the time he graduated (PSU I think?)

This forecast sucks for being so close. Trying to remember the last time the models were so volatile inside of 48h

You can get it out to 36h on plymouth state pretty early but then we have to wait until like 1140-1145 on meteocentre to get anything else including precip maps Here’s 850 and 500 at 36h

Yeah maybe technically on the slp track but I’m looking aloft where it matters most for who gets snow and how much.

So we’ve got 3 trends west (NAM, RGEM, and GFS...4 if we count icon) and 1 E at 00z (RPM) GFS def the west outlier at the moment.

There are definitely issues with this airmass. We’ve been skeptical of snow for a week now because of it...but if you get a CCB like the rgem shows, I’d have a hard time believing it doesn’t snow right down to low elevations that get underneath that intense lift. RGEM even had warm low levels in the October storm too. I remember it being a warm outlier so not sure if there is something going on there. Its worth noting though that the euro 2m temps are pretty warm too. But the 925 temps on the euro were colder than the RGEM.

Rgem has some funny looking clown maps with that warmish low level

It’s really struggling in the lower levels even though it has like 850 temps of -5C in the CCB lol. Kind of weird, but I’d think that would be pretty good for a lot of people who get under that CCB. That’s intense.

RGEM is looking a bit more amped than 18z through 21 hours.

Meh, these are non-hydrostatic models that are producing some of these really ugly solutions. I haven’t seen this from any of the globals yet. NAM actually did tick slightly better from 18z. I know the rpm didn’t, but I’d want to see some higher end guidance before reading too much into it. I like non-hydrostatic models in these types of storms once we are close in, but sometimes they can go haywire when over 36h out.

RPM looks worse than 21z. Not the right direction.

Yeah you have to go to downeast Maine to get anything. 3km is going to produce a bit better.

Still pretty damned putrid on the NAM. Slight improvement.

NAM looks a bit better at 27h vs 18z. Starting to phase a bit more. I’m not sure if it’s going to be back at the 12z solution but it should be west of 18z anyway.

There’s still a lot of wave spacing issues with that one...BUT....without getting too off topic for this current thread (I’ll indulge for a second since we’re in the dead zone before 00z runs), the 18z euro solution of phasing all 3 shortwaves allows the system to “wait out” the 12/5-6 system for an extra tick or two, and that could be enough to allow enough ridging to form between the two systems (Tip pointed out the ridging showing up in NJ just a few min ago). If that can happen, then it becomes a serious threat for the I-95 corridor mid-Atlantic perhaps all the way into New England....baroclincity has already been rejuvenated by 90h down in the Carolinas and VA so it has a path to significance. But it will require that phasing and delay for the wave-spacing to become a little more palatable.

Slightly OT, but... You prob didn’t see this, but the 18z euro only goes out to 90h so we can’t see beyond this, but it’s phasing 3 shortwaves now behind the 12/5-6 system, most aggressive I’ve seen.....imagine what this would be if we can get the ULL to lift out in the maritimes fast enough.

WSI. They are the crude low resolution maps but they come out really fast. Powderfreak posted the hi-res from weatherbell I think.

Nah it was similar to 12z. The 12z run did this too with the sfc temps. If you see 925 temps near 0C then it could be an issue but they are clearly going a tick or two below that which says to me this is 31F underneath that type of CCB. Now if rates aren’t huge, then it would definitely be more of an issue.

Lol. Nice disconnect on this map vs the other 10 to 1 maps. The reality is probably in between these two. I’m not sure why the euro is trying to hold sfc temps at like 35F while under a CCB with 925 temps of -1C to -2C and 6 hourly qpf of 0.75-1.00....meaning extremely heavy rates.

I’d be worried from hippy to runnaway. I wouldn’t be writing it off there this soon though. But we’ll want to see the phasing show just a smidge more life on the 00z suite.

Ray gets a nice stinger CCB at the end.

You don’t need to make a final call tonight. I would at least wait until 12z runs tomorrow.

You can see slightly less phasing at 42 hours as a result of the weaker northern stream earlier. So this will be a tick east.

There’s basically no change through 24h. Northern stream may be just ever so slightly weaker so it could end up a shade east but i don’t expect a drastic jump this run unless something else happens late in the game.