ORH_wxman

This is going to be an interesting storm to track from the pure precip rates standpoint and how it matches up with the ptype....I think there's going to be a very high correlation if I had to guess. Like the first 6-8 hours of this thing kind of slog along with moderate (to maybe low-end heavy) precip and that's when all the toaster baths are gonna happen. Then all of the sudden, those ridiculous echoes on radar rotate in and I can envision a ton of people posting that flakes are mixing in and then changing over.

There is a 0% chance you'd be saying this if you were still in Franklin county.

Never gets old....haha. My nirvana moment in that storm was while sitting in social studies class around 11am or thereabouts. The same thing happened in terms of gusts of wind when the changeover was happening. These big gusts of wind would "sweep" a blizzard of flakes across the soccer field/playground and into the window, then it would let up and go back to mostly rain. It did this for about 4-5 pulses over the span of 7-8 minutes until the final pulse permanently changed it over. We didn't get the fortune of having thunder at the changeover like you did, but we did get thunder that evening (prob around the time you changed over).

I keep watching the H5-H7 track (they are almost the same since this goes nuts so fast)....having those go over the Cape is premium for a good chunk of interior SNE and I think having them exiting out into the gulf of maine signals at least a few hours nearer to the coast around or just north of BOS.

This is going to implode inward at some point if these nuke solutions are right. The GFS will be too broad imho.

Yeah GFS is slightly more phased at 24h....should be a tick west, which will match other 12z guidance better because the 06z GFS tracked this over ACK and outside the Cape.

If we had a 12/9/05 airmass, we'd be looking at 15-20 easy where the max stripe goes...prob some 20+. This moves slower than that one.

The former....it's like a 50-55 (10^-5/S) magnitude.

You'd probably appreciate the RGEM 500mb map at 30 and 33 hours....that vortmax reminds me of a certain event.....

RGEM is still a furnace. Also more amped...buzzard bay track. Still weird to see the sfc so torched though....at 21z tomorrow, it has -1C 925 over my head with -3C 850 temps and it's like 37F, lol

Yep, 12/23/97

Even the kuchera maps are pretty good....and they are pretty conservative in the marginal low level events. That's how obscene that run was.

This is a ridiculous run for the lakes region in W ME over to Phin's/Alex's hood.

There's a big stinger this run for NE MA and into SE NH/S ME. Kind of rots there for a few hours.

This run is definitely colder at 925 than 06z....prob due to the huge dynamics. That is good to see though.

Good god....that is a ridiculous run for like ORH/495 belt through 33 hours...and getting up into a good chunk of NH and S ME.

Yeah I envision the snowfall aspect being like a 4-6 hour event for the meat of it over lower elevations....maybe an extra couple hours for places like ORH. It's obviously a tough forecast still because we know that there is potential to dump 10" in 5-6 hours, but that also there is potential that it only accumulates to like 3-4" of slop.

The 12z NAM should continue to tick west here back toward the other guidance. 06z made a nice jump but was still pretty far east. This looks better down south with the southern stream.

Pretty solid tick east from 06z....which was admittedly a western outlier compared to other guidance. That would obliterate ORH and my hood I think.

That's kind of 12/9/05 style....the initial band set up west of ORH but then as it collapsed E it went insane as the storm basically imploded the atmosphere over upper cape/buzzards bay.

The biggest thing I’d worry about is that the low levels start pretty warm. 925 is still warm on Saturday morning so there’s definitely going to be big dynamics needed. It looks like we get them but I could see it taking a little while to flip.

Anyways, I’m prob not staying up for the euro. But I wouldn’t expect a large change. Given the 00z trend I wouldn’t be surprised if it tickled back a little west like 12z.

That H5 is deepening pretty fast on the Ukie. Good spot too for an intense band over interior SNE for a time. The non-hydrostatics will hopefully be more useful starting tomorrow. Globals will have a hard time resolving something this tightly wound.

Crappy Ukie maps

Yeah my first winter posting was ‘04-05. I feel old now, lol.