ORH_wxman

Yeah I think that would satisfy just about every SNE poster and probabl many CNE posters. (that is classic ML goodies further NW looking at H5)

We're gonna want the blocking....this thing in the middle of the country looks like a cutter normally would.

Not this run it won't.

Euro has like 2-4 inches over interior for Monday. Maybe even into BOS an inch or two.

There's obviously still a decent amount of lead time too. Plenty of chances to screw it up....but I do like tracking the systems better when there's a block like that. It feels a little less precarious. It's very similar to how I felt tracking the 1/12/11 storm. Had this awesome davis straight block and this deep shortwave just traversing the center of the county and it didn't seem to matter really how that shortwave trended because it got squeezed south of us every time. I remember that one basically being locked and loaded on the Euro for about 5-6 days.

Yeah i can see that...but I don't think that matters a ton in this situation...whether the wave is a little north or south or stronger or whatever, it still gets "funneled" into the same area because of the block. I mean, that doesn't mean things can't go wrong...if the wave comes in really weak or something, then we might have major problems.

GFS/GEFS really looked better at 12z....hopefully that is a true change in the look...it's really asserting the NAO more than previous cycles. It's making the 12/20 system a legit snow threat now.

I don't think this is the classic unmanned firehose given the Atlantic blocking....we have some good wiggle room. S/w wants to try and track 75 miles west? still going to run into the block and be forced underneath.

Yeah the trough looks putrid at 120h. Looks worse than all the other guidance....hopefully it's just uncle being uncle with it's usual crazy swings....last night it was raining out to 495....now its giving James a jackpot.

That's a whiff.

BTW, the GFS shows you how it's done with the -NAO when the PAC starts going to crap....keeps the threats coming one after the other. That's hopefully how it goes instead of the Grinch showing up on time. Hopefully we can beat his ass back into his cave with the NAO block.

I had about 7" of sand from 12/21/09 but not too far SE had like 15-16".

Good solution for south coast/SE MA that run. But like I said, that vort is pretty far west, so beware of that on future runs.

Actually making a pretty strong push at 126...that's a pretty far west vort, so I think at the end of the day, we're gonna be glad there is a block there....regardless of this specific run's outcome.

Yeah, it's gonna get crushed south of New England I think this run. That is really strong.

Man, that longwave look is right out of the Kocin book though:

Man, that is ridiculous in SE Canada on the 12z GFS....hope it doesn't get crushed. Southern stream is more potent this run too, so maybe opposing forces there.

Nah, Tip's hadley cell will eat us before then.

For this far out, they are almost identical or all intents and purposes.

Good 00z suite. Nothing fundamentally changed on the longwave scale.

You’re up...there’s some ducks on the pond too. Knock ‘em in.

That was still a great storm at least here. Had about 13 inches and then some sleet/freezing drizzle. The WCB in that was pretty awesome. Obviously it would have been nice to get the 87 inches that fell in Stowe, but I’d sign on the dotted like for another one right now if offered.

We’ve done threads at 5 days out. Especially if there is strong support for the system. 6+ is kind of unofficially frowned upon.