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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Love the White Cap cam. They are getting hammered right now.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Looks like the back tree line is about to go obscured on phin’s cam. Ripping.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Soundings have the lowest 3000 feet more E to ENE so I think shadowing wouldn’t be too bad. Good test case.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Thanks man. Nice...looks like it’s just starting to pick up.
  5. ORH_wxman
    What’s your webcam link? (Can’t see your sig on mobile)
  6. ORH_wxman
    His area should do well with the lower midlevels having SE flow but more like E to ENE in the lowest 3000 feet. So you get that midlevel cooling from the Presidentials but keep the lowest 100mb on a favorable ENE flow so you aren’t drying/warming things below 3000 feet. You are actually upsloping in that lowest level.
  7. ORH_wxman
    This seems like an ideal setup for them to overcome marginal layers. That deeper SE flow smacking into the terrain. I always forget how low they are. They “feel” higher because you are surrounded by pretty nice looking terrain but yeah...you basically don’t go uphill much at all from the center of Charlemont, the mountain is right there.
  8. ORH_wxman
    You didn’t melt in 2013 like in 2015. You stayed the course. It was Kevin who started doing reverse psychology that winter when he was insisting that the Feb 2013 storm was a mirage and would miss. Even like 3 days out.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Retro that trough offshore of the PAC NW for 1/25....pops that little rockies ridge.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Block definitely seem to start breaking down around 1/25-1/26 which could perhaps lend to something larger....NAO doesn't totally go positive in the days following that, there is still a lot of weakness up in the Davis Strait, but the actual mega block is gone by then.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Heh, you are right about that...when you look at the loop of 11/18 the day before, you can see SNE is kind of straddling the 0C 850 isothemr with little gradient on the sfc plot....so yeah prob that upper 40s to near 50F type calm day that conceals what is merely 18 hours away to the west. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1986/us1118.php
  12. ORH_wxman
    SYZYGY is when you have celestial bodies lining up....most common is Sun/earth/moon but other planets can be included in that. It makes the tides pretty extreme.
  13. ORH_wxman
    EPS showing the miller B potential on Jan 21-22....they are liking Jan 25-26 too.
  14. ORH_wxman
    There's been a slight warming trend from yesterday....but I think S VT and maybe N Berks are in a good spot. Would be fun to be at Beast for this event to see if they can grab 8-10" of paste.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Not to nitpick, but I think the storm you are referring to was 1987. It was 1/2/87. That storm matches your description of both being during SYZGZY and also a 1-2 foot paste bomb back in the 495 belt. I do think you have also mentioned a "little critter" from earlier that winter on several occasions. November 19, 1986 had a fast moving clipper-esque system that redeveloped off NJ and blasted us with 6-10" when the forecast was for only an inch or two.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Lets just do a repeat of Jan '05....we get the 2-4" clipper appetizer 2 days before the next clipper detonates into a nuke that forever lives in James Nichols' lore.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Legit arctic antecedent airmass ahead of it too....there's plenty of baroclinicity to work with. There's good potential on that one if it can dig.
  18. ORH_wxman
    I think he's assuming no phase....like the 00z run...it's close enough to be an annoying piece of shit and pumping the SE ridge to put the northern stream into the meat grinder.....while the 12z run being further west with it gives a more relaxed gradient in the east for the northern stream to dig in.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it gives the northern stream more room to dig with less SE ridge pumped up ahead of it.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Here is the 00z vs 12z Euro on just the northern stream difference
  21. ORH_wxman
    I wouldn't sell 1/22 yet...that could easily turn into a pure northern stream system. Euro is trying for the Miller B this run as it is.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I'm def watching that one. I know it's not THAT exciting since no models actually show it going to town right now, but it's really close. Wouldn't take much for a little blow up into a decent little event.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Turning it into solely a northern stream deal isn't the worst alternative....those are a lot easier to trend significantly at a shorter lead time since they are usually coming from some horrible data-sparse region.
  24. ORH_wxman
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the 1/20 clipper
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