ORH_wxman

Is that an error? That doesn’t look right. What do mesonets near there say? The general sfc plot seems like low 40s might be believable but not 50F.

Some places here now dropping under freezing. Radiational cooling ftw for them. Noticed ORE 28F...LOL Still 38 here but off the torch high of 44-45.

Champlain Valley sucks for retention....I’m defining retention here as snow depth days vs annual snowfall. They have a lot of snow cover days because of a lot of nickel and dimes but they melt out easily. I know you already know this, but maybe I’m just super aware of it from back when I visited St Michaels college a lot back in the mid 2000s. I’d leave ORH with a double digit pack and frequently there would be a junk 2-4” pack in the valley there after being buried most of the trip through MPV/Waterbury/Bolton and then it would go shit after Richmond. A few times during late season in March I’d go from a 10” glacier in central MA to bare ground there. Despite that, I kind of see where you are coming from. I’d still think they would have a few better streaks given the latitude.

Ours took an ass-wipping today. Really sneaky too..I didn’t expect like 10 hours of 40+ dewpoints. I thought we’d be like 37-38 mostly. We prob lost a solid 2-3” despite getting close to an inch fresh this morning.

BTV missed a 77 day streak by 2 days in the ‘70-71 winter a year later....lol. Look at those two streaks in the top 5 in the same winter. Only had 2 days in between the streaks.

Yep, phin’s area will CAD really well on those SWFEs that have damming up to like 850-900mb but if the CAD is mostly at the sfc or near-sfc and 850 winds are S or SSW then he can have trouble. It doesn’t really affect the snowfall too much though...the events where you need damming up to 800-850mb, he gets. We’ve had a dearth of those events though this year. Usually we’re good for at least 3-4 per winter. Esp in a Nina.

I mean, there’s definitely a chance that storm could hit...esp given the lead time of 7+ days....but there isn’t a big reason to be optimistic about it. Synoptically, it’s a tight squeeze to fit that storm into the pattern...eastern New England would have the best shot naturally but it is still a heavy lift even for them.

Sneaky torch day here. Up to 44F. This is our warmest dewpoint day. Even though we got almost an inch this morning the pack has taken additional hit.

It’s good weather for a 1980s throwback day.

Fascinating obs between Alex and Phin...Phin def got downsloped on today’s event.

It’s not a good pattern for lots of rapid-fire shortwaves and storms. The fact wavelengths are shortening some just means it’s a little easier to sneak something in within an ugly regime. The teleconnectors might be less influential than mid-winter in March, but they still matter. If we get a blocky Canada around mid-month and beyond, then things could get a little more interesting.

Looked nice this morning. Great snow growth even within the aggregates...lots of hooked dendrites. Had almost an inch but that compacted down to about a quarter inch in a matter of 45 minutes.

Seriously. We’ve had plenty of MJO treks into phase 8/1 produce nothing. There’s an outside chance at something D7-8 but a lot needs to go right.

Def need to speed up that southern stream just a bit and it would probably pull this storm back in for a hit. Of course, that’s simplistic “all else equal”...other variables could change too.

Keep getting waves of aggregates when these heavier bands go over. They last for like 10-15 min and then it lightens. Rinse repeat

Nice fatties falling

Nowhere in the east can match the presidentials for Mountain Views. They remind me of some of the views out west. Obviously for living though, people will weigh different aspects of the area. Berkshires def have their own charm. If you’re into breweries/restaurants/bars/etc, up north is no match for the Berkshires. I don’t weigh that kind of stuff very heavily though so I love that western ME to N NH area more.

Just weekends or Saturday I think.

Getting a bit blocky up in Canada. Things can happen when that occurs.

No, they hit 0F exactly. This would be two years in a row not getting below 0F. It happens about 10% of the winters historically. But it’s been more like 25% since 1990. Last time it happened back to back though was 2000-2001 and 2001-2002.

Anything near the Holden line is going to be good....it's all 600-800+ feet there and NW side. That's where the snow retention is and where the icing events are more noticeable. Often night and day there vs like Webster Square or downtown.

Same ridge placement as April '97. Tight squeeze....esp in early March, but it is plausible.

I've already marked the ORH map for him to show him the best spots in the city.

Yeah the OP Euro was somewhat interesting there. Wouldn't take a big change to wrap that into New England. You need that trough to dig further southwest and try to phase with southern stream.

Hes actually on the opposite side of town down south where I am on the northwest corner almost in Ashland/Hopkinton and more elevated so I'd be a bit higher naturally. I can def say if an area is getting a lot of sun during the day it is likely under 7". He did make this comment: