ORH_wxman

First time I’ve seen the kids picnic table peek out from under the umbrella in weeks. Even if just a little section

Up to 45F here. Lots of dripping.

There's actuality a pretty huge difference between the EPS and GEFS for around D10-13.....EPS has western ridging and some decent cold around while GEFS are trying to give us the first taste of true spring (maybe 60s or near 70 if things broke right). GEPS is sort of in-between though prob leans more toward EPS.

I doubt that....maybe Feb 2015 you did. You prob had like 18-20" for the month in Mar 2015

March '15 was good down where he is...they scored double digits on the 3/5 storm.

Def gotta watch for bowling balls in the split flow pattern, esp in March. It would be better if we had a big block ala 2018, but split flow by its nature can produce those pseudo blocks to the north at times around Hudson Bay or Quebec.

Yeah Mar 2015 sucked here....cold but not much snow. Give me 2018 or 2013....I'll take 2017 too or even 2019 which had a great start to the month.

Prob gonna have a chance or two in the first week of March if EPS is right.

It was really cold for the date but in absolute terms, not that cold. Prob mid 20s. It was the April 1982 blizzard.

Yeah that was a good one. I think ORH had like 2-3 record low maxes and maybe 1-2 record lows. They hit 0F a bunch of times but I remember being slightly grouchy that they somehow couldn’t sneak a -1 in there. Damn site just can’t radiate. We had good snow cover too for that.

Correct. Last time BOS or ORH got that cold was January 1957. Not 100% sure on PVD, they may have been colder in the Jan ‘81 cold shot but.

Totally on its own with that....but now I want to see that verify in March. Might as well set some monthly records.

I think it was 2016 with the VDay cold shot that ruined the peach trees. It had been a torch all winter and then we got our coldest temps in 6 decades with that cold shot....lol. BOS hit -10 I think in that...insane for them out in the Harbor. And non-radiating ORH got to -16 with a stiff NW wind I think we were back to 55F 2-3 days later too.

Yeah let’s turn that into one of those 8F blizzard condition deals with car doors frozen shut and then tickle 70F 4 days later.

I feel like all guidance has the sfc boundary well to the south for next Sunday....they are trying to develop a low off the Delmarva.

Looks like 12z backed off some, though still there in lesser form.

Whats with the big PNA ridge building in clown range? That would prob provide chances in the following days if that stayed like that.

Classic for the rad spots....that first day coming off 28F delays the melt and even the next night getting to 34F drastically slows it down. I think I was prob hemorrhaging at like 42-43F on a couple of those nights. But I def remember that first day well into the 60s with total full cover even here where we started with a weaker pack than up north. I think we had around 7-8" left by the first day instead of 17" like CON.

Yeah 2017 I remember having still full coverage on that first day of the warm blitz in the 60s and even the 2nd day down here was still half coverage with temps near 70.

We get 50s all the time with deep pack late in the season. It can happen. If there was no pack and it was dry bare ground from here all to our southwest, we'd prob be trying to nape 60ish. We could maybe stay in the upper 40s though if clouds become too prevalent midday and beyond as the front approaches.

Assuming ORH gets no more measurable snow for the month of February, they finish with 30.9" for the month. That breaks the streak fo 3 consecutive below average snow Februarys from 2018-2020. Though that 3 year streak came on the heels of 5 consecutive above average snowfall Februarys from 2013-2017. So this still makes 6 out of the last 9 above average and 8 out of the last 12 and 12 out of the last 17. It's been a pretty good run of Februarys for snowfall in the 2000s and beyond. Guess we were due though given that 14 out of 17 Februarys were below normal for snowfall between 1984 and 2000.

Nothing like a 192 hour GGEM snow event to get the loins tingling.

Classic Tip warm bum-bum nape tanner day. Complete with the melting line down the center of the driveway

Yeah, old GFS is tossed.

That is a near-record cold shot on the GFS for early next week. Other guidance isn't buying it though. At least not that extreme.