ORH_wxman

That’s ETauntonMA (Bob) We gotta give him the Mohawk ski dude avatar again.

That is some sick looking convection about inject into this...

Agreed. The 2011 damage was significantly greater and that was a high end EF3 (though you can make a legit argument for low EF4). Hard to say what that NJ one was without more damage pics to reference...it was at least a solid EF2 anyway. Possibly EF3. If those structures were pretty high-end, then EF3 for sure.

I can believe that if it’s during that time. The 1810s-1830s were brutally cold here with the little data we do have. We were getting a ton of volcanic activity (including Tambora) aiding things and probably the decadal cycles helped too. Temps actually rose quite a bit from 1830s to 1880s before falling again toward the 1910s and then rising hugely in through the early 1950s (and then briefly cooling again in the 1960s/1970s).

There may be a temporary negative feedback of sorts...as ice melts closer to the pole, the refreeze starts a little earlier there because of the higher latitude which may offset the later refreeze further out on the periphery of the ice. That negative feedback would eventually get overwhelmed by a warmer climate.

Is there any evidence that minimums are occurring later? I remember running the numbers several years ago and there was no statistically significant trend...but maybe that’s changed. I can pull up all the dates tomorrow when back on my PC and check if nobody else has them handy.

I think the person doing it for the past year or two cannot do it this year. So we now face potential garbage BOS obs again...hopefully it doesn’t end up back at the water treatment plant halfway to the Flemish Cap.

Agreed....you can tell anyway just by looking to the south in southern Oxford county...clearly there is big damage there. It wouldn't just stop like that...lack of obs is the culprit.

That's a pretty cool image, but it's modeled, so I try and stay with empirical obs. Here's another from Harvard....it shows damage by town...obviously there's some gaps in this analysis

This image is from the harvard forest archives...the max damage definitely is a little west of, say, BOS, but it is focused over E CT/RI/C MA/E-central MA. It seems to taper some back near the CT river in MA (but not in NH)

Well even west of ORH got in on the wind core...so I should probably say "central MA" too...so places like Palmer/Ware would have been in it....but typically the worst winds on a more tropical system would have been over the CT river but in this case it was over central/east-central MA and E CT/RI.

Yes it was...it was a minimal cat 3 at landfall in RI.

Carol was smaller than '38 too...it was more tropical and had an intact eyewall at landfall whereas the '38 storm was going extratropical with baroclinic assist....which why the worst winds in 1938 were over eastern MA/E CT/RI even though the center actually tracked over western CT and western MA near the NY border.

My guess is we finish around 10th or 11th lowest on extent, but there is an outside chance we finish 13th with only 2009 and 2013 being above 2021 since the 2007 event if the weather cooperates enough and more of Beaufort ice hangs on.

That's for extent, but for area, we've seen August minimums. I believe 1992 was 8/31 and 2005 used to have an 8/30 min but recent revisions to the NSIDC database now has 9/3 as barely edging out 8/30 for the min. But 8/23 is ridiculous for a min....if an August minimum on area would occur, it would be around the last day or two of the month.

The cool shot on the Euro next week looks nice. Gonna feel like fall.

We've fallen below the 8/23 value on NSIDC area. The 8/23 value was 3.38 million sq km and today we are at 3.26 million sq km. 8/23 wasn't a very realistic minimum date.

Maybe KGAO can catch the eastern eyewall. That’s prob the station to watch going forward. Too bad there isn’t one right on Grand Isle. They h e an airport but no obs come out of there.

DLP obs is over 30 min old though...wonder if they croaked too.

KDLP 291310Z AUTO 12075G96KT M1/4SM FG 25/25 A2917 RMK A01

This is even more impressive. On the west side of the storm KMDJ 291150Z AUTO 02083G102KT M1/4SM FG BKN002 OVC019 26/26 A2858 RMK A01

KDLP 291135Z AUTO 09067G85KT 3/4SM BR SCT003 BKN014 BKN021 25/25 A2930 RMK A01

You can't get a meaningful ice recovery on the Siberian side without being able to hold the multi-year ice in the Beaufort first. The Beaufort Gyre circulates the ice up toward the Chukchi and East Siberian Sea, but if the MYI is melting out in the Beaufort during the summer, then it makes any type of longer term recovery impossible. As for the ice retention patterns......2013 was probably the best ice retention pattern we've seen in the past decade. If you subtract 2013 pressure anomalies from 2021 for the crucial pre-conditioning months of May/June, you can see how 2021 had higher pressures over the CAB (esp the PAC/Beaufort side) while having lower pressures over the Kara....a worse pattern than 2013.

I don't think we've reached the NSIDC area min....that would be like a week earlier than the previous earliest min. There is still plenty of low concentration ice in the Beaufort/Chukchi that should bring us down a bit further. That said, I don't expect a very big drop like 2010 had....the weather looks really cold up there on the models over the next week.

The Cleveland superstorm was a bust too...was originally going to be eastward and be a lot of snow up here.