ORH_wxman

He needs a few '88-'89s in a row and throw in another couple 2/1/21 screwjies for his BY and he'll be chomping at the bit for a 3-6" event like Ginxy scans the models at 3am for windex events.

'94 did have a thaw in late February too before another reload. Yeah the coast got the best anomalies. Interior got hammered too, but not the anomaly that the coastal areas got. But the interior did very well in storms like 1/3-4 and 1/12....and then later on they did well in March.

Brady is obviously a pretty special circumstance...played for 20 years in NE and is the best of all time.

As Bill Parcells used to always tell his star players, "the fans don't root for you, they root for the laundry"

I think there were actually 3 cutters, but they became less ridiculous with each one. The first cutter was the worst I've ever seen.

Yeah that look would be cold here and probably pretty active. Almost looks like a ‘93-94 but shifted a little east with the PV anomaly.

Yeah likely. My guess is around the high-end weak to low-end moderate threshold.

This is kind of the definition of summer's back broken....we had this huge ridge aloft and the best we could get out of it was a dirty warm sector with temps in the upper 70s. Some other years we'd make a run at 90+ in this type of ridging.

A couple dozen getting inside already today tells me this is pretty large nest. Probably at least 500 yellow jackets and possibly way more. If you can go outside and see where the nest entrance is and count how often you see them entering/exiting then that will give you a good idea. If you see like 10 or more entering/exiting every few seconds, then you have a massive nest.

If he rents, then the landlord is obligated to take care of that. I'd prob just call the landlord and say I'll schedule the professional to come in, and I'll just deduct it off my rent next month, or something like that. Assuming you have one or two hundred bucks up front you can spare.

Nope, not with a nest that is partially inside the walls. They can easily last into November, especially if it's not super cold this October/early November. That nest needs to be destroyed ASAP.

You may want to find where they are getting in from and try and seal that inside opening if possible before you try and poison them from the outside opening....assuming you can seal it without them attacking you.

Most won't relocate a hornets nest. It is typically honey bees that will be relocated and you normally won't have to pay for it on honey bees. If you find a honey bees nest on your property, you usually can get a bee keeper to take them out for free because they are a hot commodity.

Wiz, be careful with yellow jackets...they are very aggressive near their nest. Just because you somehow haven't disturbed them too much yet doesn't mean it won't happen at some point soon...and you do not want to get them disturbed since they can access inside your home. You need to get rid of that ASAP. I'd definitely either call someone or at least order some of the powder. The only thing that worries me about trying to get them yourself is that if you infect their nest from the outside, they may try and go further in your house to seek relief and that is something you do not want. It sucks, but it might be worth just biting the bullet and paying a pro like 100 bucks to get rid of it.

There's a lot of purchasing of property right now amongst large institutions as a hedge against increasing inflation. It also helps that rates are still very low. The next populist backlash will include wrath against corporate landlords like Blackrock.

Thats close to a frost at PQI....maybe some spots there got frosty windshields.

Our problem in January wasn't the hadley cell....we actually had a lack of gradient. We prob score a solid event or two if we had just a little more gradient. We all remember the close misses. Look at the low heights over the southeast US in January.

I believe the extent minimum has been reached now that we are almost 140k higher on NSIDC than the 9/13 min of 4.7 million sq km...and the area minimum was reached on 9/1. So time for verification based on the predictions from June NSIDC area..... The minimum area was 3.17 million sq km on 9/1. This places 2021 as the 11th lowest area minimum. The more unique aspect of the area minimum was that it was the 2nd earliest area min on record. Only 1992 had an earlier min than the 9/1 date this year....the min that year was 8/31. The forecast above predicted 3 million sq km so I was a little low on my prediction but well within the error bars. I would consider this a pretty strong forecast. The minimum NSIDC extent was 4.7 million sq km on 9/13. This ranks 12th lowest on record. My prediction of 4.3 million sq km was too low but still within the wider 500k error bars. Extent is notoriously harder to predict than area. The melt conditions in May/June correctly predicted this wouldn't be a top 5 melt season, but somewhat underestimated how much ice would survive. The favorable conditions in late July and August likely aided in some of that extra retention not able to be foreseen at the end of June. I'd still consider it a decent forecast but not as good as the area forecast was. These figures may be revised slightly by NSIDC in the future as is often the case, but the overall standing of 2021 isn't likely to change much at all from any revisions. They are usually very minor.

Gotta shake the stigma. Most of your huge years have blocking. There's a few exceptions like 2007-2008.

I remember the 1994 EL Nino was being hyped that autumn. Coming off the heels of two big winters, a lot of mets were honking for a very stormy winter with the El Nino aiding. We can diplomatically say that seasonal forecasting even 25+ years later has big errors.....lol. What a let down. Ironically, it was 1995-1996 (the weak La Nina) that actually generated some subtropical jet...esp 2nd half of that winter. Produced some good events in February...we didn't always get the best of them, but then again, we didn't need to with the massive totals already built up from Dec/Jan. We did do quite well in some of those March events though.

FWIW, the slater model is predicting NSIDC extent, not JAXA. NSIDC tends to be a bit higher than JAXA....often 100k to 200k higher on the min. It still performed poorly this year, though. Just not quite as bad as when compared to JAXA figures.

It was ok for SE MA, but pretty cruddy elsewhere. 2/25/99 really helped the anomalies in SE MA. I'd agree it wasn't as terrible as years like '88-'89 or '11-'12....those were near all time ratters.

Pretty good chance many in NNE get their first frost between 9/25-9/30 if models are close to correct.

Yeah and '84-'85 was weird in that is was basically just one nuclear blocking month (Jan 85...maybe leaking into early Feb) surrounded by garbage....and we happened to whiff on most systems in Jan '85....epic arctic cold and southern snow events that month. 1954-1955 was just weird....the pattern didn't look bad but somehow we got basically no snow. Ir was pretty dry too in SNE.

La Nina with blocking is an extremely strong snow signal in New England. Almost all of our crappy La Ninas had a big +AO/NAO. Just go right down the list: 1. 2011-2012 2. 1999-2000 3. 1998-1999 4. 1988-1989 5. 1984-1985 6. 1973-1974 Now there were years like 2005-2006 which had some blocking but were pretty crappy in NNE....though SNE was closer to average in snowfall (with a narrow area above avg in CT). But overall, arctic blocking + La Nina is a very good snow signal.