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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    A limiting factor in efficient ice accretion in this event is that 950mb temps are really warm. Tip mentioned this a couple pages back but that is important because you are going to have warm raindrops pretty close to the surface so they have less time to become supercooled. In many of our nasty icing events, you’ll see 950 temps below 0C and the freezing line is closer to 900-925.
  2. ORH_wxman
    It varies based on several factors but a rough general rule is that 70% will freeze on flat surfaces and then roughly 40% of THAT will accrete radially…which comes out to about 30% of the QPF. So in an example where half inch of QPF falls as ice, you may get about 3/8ths inch on flat surface and 1/6th radial accretion.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Great post….awesome animations in the pattern there. That pattern at the end would certainly be more conductive to coastal storms as well even though the overrunners and redevelopers are still likely favored. At least the meat grinder relaxes a bit. The really strong block in the Chukchi Sea has my attention too. In the past, we’ve seen some really extreme cold outbreaks into the northern tier when a block develops there.
  4. ORH_wxman
    He might need this instead:
  5. ORH_wxman
    I’d watch the Jan 2-4 period for now.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Even the coldest guidance i think had a high around 28ish at ORH. That ended up being the high near BOS and the ORH Asos has been running warm too
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that could be nasty for quite a while. Esp interior hills in ORH county into S NH. Flow is pretty light so prob many areas will latently warm to like 32.5F by mid afternoon but if even a weak barrier jet gets going then that could end up as 30F right into evening. The mesolow threat is kind of high so something to watch.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Finished with just under an inch at winter hill
  9. ORH_wxman
    Cold day. ORH at 22F at lunchtime.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Brutal my friend. Even a half inch to an inch looks quite festive. Hopefully some redemption by New Years.
  11. ORH_wxman
    TF Green prob getting smacked there just south of Providence.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Solid
  13. ORH_wxman
    He’s not losing that tomorrow. Even when the ZR changes to showers later on it’s like mid 30s.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it’s not going anywhere there. Prob icy tomorrow AM too.
  15. ORH_wxman
    No I’m in Holliston. Visiting family today though and then heading to NJ where it will be brown and mild.
  16. ORH_wxman
    A little over a half inch so far on winter hill. Not sure if a little more can come through but looks festive
  17. ORH_wxman
    Nice burst now. “Heaviest” of the event.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Of course my boys had to go outside at 630am despite just a coating
  19. ORH_wxman
    Kevin will break 2” with that band.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Flakes picking up a bit…hopefully this bursT to the west gives a bit more. We have a coating right now. Congrats on the white Xmas for the CT folks.
  21. ORH_wxman
    I’m wondering if parts of interior like ORH county fail to make freezing. 18z euro was showing that possibility. Even BOS gets a little cold tuck later at night.
  22. ORH_wxman
    I’m guessing it will go up in a mushroom cloud either 00z tonight or 12z tomorrow.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Euro had a nice little weenie band near ORH and the pike. Wonder if there’s two areas…one northern edge near fronto and another down further south where there’s a bit more LL convergence and a little extra ocean moisture.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Rgem juiced up in CT too. It barely had anything at 12z and now a chunk of CT is over 0.10 of liquid equivalent.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yeah improvement at the end. EPS also seems to like the timeframe around New Years for a potential snowier event. Some members have a good thump…OP had a bit too around that time.
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