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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I'd wait until we're inside 10 days. The good news though is that the western ridge starts building pretty quickly by D9
  2. ORH_wxman
    Tip will like the lower heights in the SE later in the period....no Hadley cell geopotential medium compression for you....
  3. ORH_wxman
    Here's 5-day mean D9-13
  4. ORH_wxman
    Well if you think about we kind of traded our climate with them for the past 2-3 weeks.
  5. ORH_wxman
    EPS looks pretty nice in the extended....that's the best it's looked in a while. Trended toward GEFS a bit. @CoastalWxwould definitely like that western ridge anomaly max sitting over Idaho/Montana. PV actually gets shoved into SE Canada. Probably a legit arctic outbreak if that look verified.
  6. ORH_wxman
    EPS takes the system over SE MA...pretty decent spread in solutions so way too early to talk about whether the system is "lost" yet.
  7. ORH_wxman
    GGEM actually scrapes the Cape now....lol
  8. ORH_wxman
    It can be strong...it just depends where the shortwave amplifies. On the Euro, it doesn't amplify until further east...there's a bit more confluence.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Massena NY FTW.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Yeah EPS is still totally fine but GEFS would be better. EPS actually starts retrograding the western ridge a bit at the end to a nice spot.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Man the GEFS and EPS are pretty different in the N PAC in the 11-15. GEFS has a nuclear EPO ridge…almost 2015-Esque. EPS are really lowering heights in AK though there is still some cross polar flow to the N of AK
  12. ORH_wxman
    Euro still liking 1/7 for something trackable.
  13. ORH_wxman
    This is really surprising.
  14. ORH_wxman
    12/30/00 storm was pretty meh in ORH....we had about 10 inches and then a ridiculous dryslot.
  15. ORH_wxman
    I’m completely ignoring the 1/3 system until non-GFS guidance shows anything.
  16. ORH_wxman
    GFS actually has the 1/7 event now, though it’s a bit too far west for good snows. Still way out there, but EPS/Euro suite has been entertaining that system. So if you want something to latch onto, that system would likely be the best shot.
  17. ORH_wxman
    That stretch actually continued into January...had a reinforcement after the 1/4 blizzard. That was a pretty epic stretch if you look brutal cold sandwiched around a huge snowstorm
  18. ORH_wxman
    We had a hell of cold shot at this time in 2017 too...here's how ORH closed the month:
  19. ORH_wxman
    Not really...we've had plenty of La Nina ratters....the weird part is struggling in a La Nina when there has been a lot of high latitude blocking.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Oh yeah I missed that part. Yeah, 40” in a month is pretty sweet.
  21. ORH_wxman
    40 inches would be my worst winter ever since posting on these forums in 2004-2005.
  22. ORH_wxman
    18z GFS still trying to sell the frontal fraud on 1/3.
  23. ORH_wxman
    You need a more dominant northern stream +PNA pattern to get a lot of clippers.
  24. ORH_wxman
    EPS is still fine...has a piece of PV lobe getting sucked back into AK, but as long as you maintain cross polar (circled) flow, it's going to be good for cold source. It's probably going to flip to +200 dm anomalies next run anyway. I'm happier to see to some western ridging showing up.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the only exception i think is '84-85. 1954-55 had a big -NAO but a garbage N PAC.
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