ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah longitude is actually more important in SNE than latitude in this system.
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That is still widespread warning snows on the NAM east ORH-Ginxy line despite some of the wonky convection-chasing
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NAM looks a bit more amped so far.
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You might have enough longitude eastward to do just fine.
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Yeah places like BOS might be slow in the first 2-3 hours and then they'll go to poundtown tomorrow morning.
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HRRR definitely a bit more subdued than 06z though it is still really good for E MA and RI and E CT.
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Nice bump back west on 06z euro. Man, that off hour/on hour tango is so weird.
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There’s going to be some pretty intense snow in that band for a while I think. Question is how long the good banding lasts…that’ll be the difference between advisory snow and solid warning snows.
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06z reggie went east again too.
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Went to bed before euro but that was not what I was hoping to see. 06z NAM suite was a nudge east too. We’re still west of the 12z suite so that part is good but it seems we’ve at least temporarily halted the NW trend.
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GGEM def a bit east of 12z.
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You needed to just refresh yourself with some training
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I don’t think it’s done yet either. Model guidance is trying to rip this closer to the vortmax. It still tries to escape east a bit on some of these runs even though they are a lot better.
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GFS coming in hot
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I thought rgem looked slightly west of 18z. Phin, it got more precip up to you than 18z. Down here it wasn’t that different. Maybe a little bump in spots. It def looked healthier on the non-QPF maps.
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Yep this is def NW of 18z
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Looks a bit more amped by 30h. I’m doing this on my phone tonight though so it’s not easy to toggle.
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We edible. 00z NAM looks like slightly lower heights over us through 18h but the vortmax is definitely stronger so we’ll see what happens later on.
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Yeah a little bit of that is the rain from this afternoon.
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Yeah when you look at soundings, there’s a fairly deep area of lift and it goes into the SGZ…even the ugly solutions have that weenie band early in the storm…I think worst case scenario is prob 2-3” of blower fluff there. But there’s def some upside for higher amounts.
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Prob snows until dark there.
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Yeah sfc temps are almost always a struggle there but even in this one I doubt they’ll be a huge deal. It’s probably be pasty snow there at least for the first half of the storm but it’s plenty cold just off the deck so no real ptype issues.
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That was a nice move. Usually don’t see much more than that on the euro.
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Deeper into interior is a tougher call. I do think at least advisory snows are likely due to the weenie banding early in the event…but I’m not sure about later on. My gut is this ticks closer in near the vort and everyone ends up getting more than currently shown, but we’ll see. It’s a hard forecast…if I was forecasting for my old clients in ORH county and Union CT then I’d prob be saying 3-5” but telling them to look for updates as there is more uncertainty than usual with higher amounts possible.
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I remember that well. The pattern looked so good that I figured BOS would clean up for a few weeks. I had no idea it would be that prolific…lol. I don’t think anyone knew…what a 3 week period that was. Crazy.
