ORH_wxman

Yes, not because of "5 bad ones in a row means i have a better shot at doing well next year"....you're offering an even money bet when we're about to go into an El Nino (that has a good chance at being modoki)....the fact that you said you would pull the bet if that didn't happen also means you agree with me that the El Nino factor is the real reason you're confident in better snow next season, not because of the voodoo "6 in a row".

Well I wouldn't bet on it either because of the potential for El Nino....but outside of that, the other stuff doesn't matter. If we go into next year neutral ENSO, and you are still overwhelmingly confident in a big season, I'd take the bet with odds.

The first part of your quote is perfectly valid....if we believe that we're going for a modoki El Nino, then there's reason to be think it's good. But the bolded is pretty much completely irrelevant. The reason you never had 6 in a row is because you previously never had 5 in a row (and rarely even had 3 or 4 in a row)....well, we already have had 5 in a row. That makes 6 in a row a hell of a lot easier when you already have 5 banked.

At least the trend in this type of pattern is often to trend things north....doesn't always work, but there's a good SE ridge.

Lack of snow cover too is a killer....you could prob get to 5F in a meh airmass but clear night with snow OTG

Dry and a furnace....

When has Ray not melted at some point during a KU? Maybe March 2018....but that's it.

Thanks man....this is the type of top analysis we strive for on the forum.

Yeah I don't see how having a bad season makes the next year more likely to be good. To me, that's like saying because I got 8 heads in a row, the next coin flip has a better shot at being tails....nope, the next coin toss is 50/50.

EPS is still kind of likes 2/1 despite the OP run.

@Sey-Mour Snow

Nice west based-NAO block….really worked it’s magic. Deep -PNA but all that did was keep it active. The trough wasn’t digging into Baja California either.

Late Dec 2017/early Jan 2018 laughs at Kevin…or Dec ‘83 or Jan ‘76 or Jan ‘57

I bet the condos in Newry are buried.

Tip and I used to muse about how there’s a physical/plausible mechanism to get that area buried under 5-6 feet of snow (not sure 12 feet is plausible like on that pic)….but the return rate is prob like once every 500 or 1000 years…who knows the actual number. We saw a little preview in Feb 2015 for Boston when depths got around 40-50 inches (and even just south of Boston in 1996)…the snows in 1717 maybe were similar to 2015…possible they were a little higher but the records aren’t robust enough to say for certain. At some point it will happen but we have no idea of it happens in 10 years, 100 years, 1000 years or we wait until the next ice age in 5000 years or whatever. I think in a Holocene type climate it is plausible but just extremely rare.

And then 3 days later

No that was back in 2005 IIRC...I think it was the 12/16/05 ice storm.

That was only like a month after the epic ORH ice storm in Dec '08

EPS seems like 2/6 better than 2/4-5.....2/6 would have been from that shortwave that Tip was discussing that was on the heals of the 2/4 event on the OP run.

Yeah I don't hate that signal....it's precarious (what isn't this year).....but it could produce a nice little event if we track it right. EPS cluster looks half-decent

Euro might get home with that 2/4-5 shortwave. I’d still watch 2/1 a bit though. There’s been hints for that one. Don’t think it would be a huge event but could produce overrunning snows.

What is CHH or GYX? Pretty sure to the east of the mountains we've gotten colder than -30

We actually had a decent shower mixed with snow just go through.

Yeah I know...but it was still interesting that we had colder 850s in some previous cold shots but didn't quite get as cold in the lower levels as 2016...the core of that cold was centered around 925 I think....I remember we were tracking the top of Stratton and they got down to like -35F